@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

@VVS, I sense that you are disillusioned at the moment. Dont overthink stuff. We dont have the answers that you seek. Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term. This idea of tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 is really nonsense. It is a psychological attempt at justifying the outcomes to yourself.

Tier 1 simply means "core" as in I am heavily invested. No more than 5 stocks which comprise 70-80% of the assets.
Tier 2 combined is 15-20%
Tier 3 are teeny positions I have. Many are historical or speculative. Money I can afford to lose without losing any sleep. Combined less than 5%.

You said: "Its impossible to predict stock performance especially over the long term."
Buffett quotes his mentor, Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

After the tough 2018, we are headed into a not so easy 2019.

KenyaRe did not have a stellar 2018 but I think the seeds for slow and steady growth have been planted. It will NOT be linear growth.

I have started analyzing the results. The NSE sent out the Financial Statements. Check the KenyaRe website for more information.

Price (29 Mar 2019): 11/-
EPS FY2018 (including FV Gains): 3.25
NAV/Share (31st Dec 2019): 40.53
Div FY 2018: 0.45/share (4% DY)
GoK: 60% (420mn of 700mn shares)

I want to focus on 2019-2023 as we progress through the years.

I have my concerns given GoK's 60% ownership which we saw playing out during the Boardroom Wars. Not good for KenyaRe's reputation.

This remains my only significant GoK-controlled investment. A core investment.

I don't care much for FV gains as part of the P&L but I am also cognizant that
(Re)Insurance firms make money off their investments and not the underwriting.

IFRS 17 kicks in in 2021. KenyaRe may need to take non-cash provisions for bad debts, potential bad debts, potential payouts/claims, etc.

Finally, given KenyaRe's cash position, upcoming elections, fraud and unforeseen disasters, there is a substantial element of risk.

In due course, I may choose to make this my "Bus" but there's stiff competition from Centum.

I have an aversion to GoK-controlled firms so I need to be sure whether KenyaRe makes sense for me but the low P/BV, low PER, cash/share and Mwarania in charge are pluses.

GoK ownership, competition (the mandatory cessation expires in 2020) and Boardroom wrangles don't inspire confidence.

Many have asked me "What next?" after KK was done and dusted. Well, let's start analyzing KenyaRe.