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2018 Best Stock To Own......What's Your Prediction?
Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 468 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:As I prepare to head into 2019, I need to find 2-3 replacements for my Core Portfolio. The choices are limited.
2 (Unga and KK) could be bought out in 2019.
Centum is slowly but surely making its way into the Core Portfolio. Picked up some at 25.
WTK/KAPC might become Tier 2 at most given KE's politics.
Safaricom is a solid contender at sub-24
Equity and Stanbic are definitely a contenders at 40 and 90.
[I don't want more than 30% in banks given I already have I&M as "core"]
Or keep it in cash until the next "crash".
Said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they're doing."
Meanwhile, bond-maven Bill Gross said, "Do you really like a particular stock? Put 10% or so of your portfolio on it. Make the idea count. Good investment ideas should not be diversified away into meaningless oblivion." Take some profits and go on holiday - rudishia mwili asante. Beware of gamblers curse of re-investing all your winnings onto the next KQ,ARM, Uchumi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:As I prepare to head into 2019, I need to find 2-3 replacements for my Core Portfolio. The choices are limited.
2 (Unga and KK) could be bought out in 2019.
Centum is slowly but surely making its way into the Core Portfolio. Picked up some at 25.
WTK/KAPC might become Tier 2 at most given KE's politics.
Safaricom is a solid contender at sub-24
Equity and Stanbic are definitely a contenders at 40 and 90.
[I don't want more than 30% in banks given I already have I&M as "core"]
Or keep it in cash until the next "crash".
Said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they're doing."
Meanwhile, bond-maven Bill Gross said, "Do you really like a particular stock? Put 10% or so of your portfolio on it. Make the idea count. Good investment ideas should not be diversified away into meaningless oblivion." Add a Local Tier one bank for quick gains when market turns... KCB, Equity or Coop. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 2,016 Location: Kitale
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:HY2 2018 not good for stocks.
I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.
My portfolio is as follows:
Stock - ABP - % Portfolio
1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.
2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2
3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2
4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.
6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2
7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.
Ready for 2019.
Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back. @VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend KK - Profitable and pays a dividend I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often. I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023. Think Zimbabwe and now SA. I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait. You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio. And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that? Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms. KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc. Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE. I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%. WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit. I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M. Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25] Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical. Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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I should "Time Stamp" this as done on 5 Nov 2018 given the fortunes of firms can dramatically change.
sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:As I prepare to head into 2019, I need to find 2-3 replacements for my Core Portfolio. The choices are limited.
2 (Unga and KK) could be bought out in 2019.
Centum is slowly but surely making its way into the Core Portfolio. Picked up some at 25.
WTK/KAPC might become Tier 2 at most given KE's politics.
Safaricom is a solid contender at sub-24
Equity and Stanbic are definitely a contenders at 40 and 90.
[I don't want more than 30% in banks given I already have I&M as "core"]
Or keep it in cash until the next "crash".
Said the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, "Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they're doing."
Meanwhile, bond-maven Bill Gross said, "Do you really like a particular stock? Put 10% or so of your portfolio on it. Make the idea count. Good investment ideas should not be diversified away into meaningless oblivion." Add a Local Tier one bank for quick gains when market turns... KCB, Equity or Coop. Equity is already part of my portfolio. I sold a good chunk at a good price a little while ago. Thanks to the significant REGIONAL focus of Equity, I think it will do better than either KCB or Coop. DRC, according to Mary Wamae, is doing well. JM talked of a "Pick, Plug and Play" model for these markets using Equitel. Cash is a huge constraint for me but given the pending takeover of KK... I may get some decent cash in in 2019 BUT as we saw from Puma, there are no guarantees. Look at Seaboard and Unga. Still stuck at 40/- for the 30% minority shareholders... "Quick Gains" is where we differ. I am happy for decent gains on Equity, SafCom, Centum over the next few years. I recently bought Centum at 25 and it has jumped to 30 [about 20%] but I am not selling for a quick gain since I think there's more to be gained by holding. I recently bought KAPC/WTK and I got a dividend of 10/20 (13%) on my purchase price. I am not selling given the good rains and high levels of production even with lower tea prices. It's a cyclical stock. Not for the faint of heart. Not for those who can't sleep at night. The politics surrounding land in Nandi/RV are awful. I bought Safcom sub-25 and I will likely buy more at 24 after analyzing the info they put out. It is a well-managed firm. All the above is ACADEMIC given I have no cash! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:HY2 2018 not good for stocks.
I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.
My portfolio is as follows:
Stock - ABP - % Portfolio
1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.
2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2
3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2
4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.
6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2
7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.
Ready for 2019.
Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back. @VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend KK - Profitable and pays a dividend I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often. I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023. Think Zimbabwe and now SA. I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait. You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio. And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that? Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms. KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc. Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE. I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%. WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit. I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M. Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25] Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical. Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends. Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:HY2 2018 not good for stocks.
I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.
My portfolio is as follows:
Stock - ABP - % Portfolio
1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.
2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2
3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2
4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.
6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2
7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.
Ready for 2019.
Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back. @VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend KK - Profitable and pays a dividend I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often. I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023. Think Zimbabwe and now SA. I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait. You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio. And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that? Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms. KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc. Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE. I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%. WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit. I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M. Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25] Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical. Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends. Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum. Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:@VVS I know you dont trust Meralli but what do you think of Sasini Fundamentals? They are diversifying into high value macademia and avocados. I do not know. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:HY2 2018 not good for stocks.
I have re-invested my HY1 capital gains and dividends in NMG, NIC and HAFR. Now waiting for 2019.
My portfolio is as follows:
Stock - ABP - % Portfolio
1. Kengen - KES 6.64 - 24%.
2. Stanbic - KES 96.5 - 15%. Tier 2
3. TPS - KES 28.6 - 15%. Tier 2
4. Kenya Re - KES 18.8 - 14%.
Core
5. NMG - KES 92.2 - 14%.
6. NIC - KES 29.6 - 11%. Tier 2
7. HAFR - KES 1.09 - 7%.
Ready for 2019.
Apart from those listed, we have little in common! The Tier 2 are less than 5% each of my portfolio and bought a few years back. @VVS what are your core holdings apart from Kenya Re? ... KK, I&M, WTK Unga - Profitable and pays a dividend KK - Profitable and pays a dividend I&M [Banks in general including Equity, NIC, Stanbic] Profitable and pays a dividend WTK/KAPC is Tier 2 (was Tier 1) at the moment. I became queasy when the "land grabs" started with demands for not renewing leases. Most of their farms are in Nandi/RV where we have seen political violence erupt often. I like the business even though it is cyclical BUT the farms can disappear in 2023. Think Zimbabwe and now SA. I will have to find replacements for Unga and KK if they get taken out but let's not run ahead of ourselves. I am waiting for Rubis to complete their takeover. Unga is tougher but I can wait. You don't have any of the big caps in your Portfolio. And u wrote off arm ? What happened to OLYMPIA? U cash out of that? Yes and Yes. Years ago, I did a "purge" and got rid of most of the shares in "bandia" firms. KQ, OCHL, Uchumi (at a profit), ADSS, etc. Like many investors, I used to buy everything... BAD MISTAKE. I went to Buffettian principles, and cleaned house, and reduced my holdings to a max of 15 but only 5 constituted 75%-90%. WTK was one of the 5 but I cashed out. I returned to KAPC/WTK in a small way recently. I also sold Equity at a profit. I may end up selling my KK and Unga in 2019 which will leave me with KenRe and I&M. Replacements: Centum [been buying slowly], Equity, KAPC/WTK, Safaricom [sub-25] Note that all are currently profitable and pay a dividend though WTK/KAPC profits (& dividends) are cyclical. Centum-they seem to value employees more than shareholders.Employees are paid billions in bonuses while shareholders are paid some millions in dividends. Yes and No. Look at Safcom where the dividend/share may seem low but the aggregate dividend is huge. BTW, Mworia is a top 10 shareholder in Centum. Seems like you haven’t learnt your lesson regarding NAV. Remember NAV can be fudged as we saw recently. Not sure about the valuations centum have and how much of it is bias. Tread carefully here, I had invested here until I saw the light. I pulled the plug at a small profit but it was purely luck. This stock as Ericsson has pointed out severally has more than meets the eye. I'll will keep my ear to the ground BUT I am not in a (cash) position to switch at the moment. The stated NAV is 73/- and current price is 30/-. Cash and cashflow are very important and currently Centum has sufficient cashflow to manage its OPEX. Fudging: NAV, EPS, etc can all be fudged. Many years ago, KCB used to announce huge EPS (low PER) but it was all fake. I do trust Mworia but I am also open to changing my mind. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:@sparkly we are ahead of schedule in the race to KES 14. It appears that we wont even get to 28.10.2018 before you change your status in my honor The inaugural USA direct flight of 28/10/2018 has not excited the price of KQ. Bet fails both ways Agreed.. But remember there was an active strike threat which bore it's ugly head this week. Technically, KQ would have traded at KES 14 by today  Would have, could have, should have but didn't happen. KQ now below 7 bob, at 6.86. Prediction didn't happen by 28.10.2018 but did only 4 months later. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:@sparkly we are ahead of schedule in the race to KES 14. It appears that we wont even get to 28.10.2018 before you change your status in my honor The inaugural USA direct flight of 28/10/2018 has not excited the price of KQ. Bet fails both ways Agreed.. But remember there was an active strike threat which bore it's ugly head this week. Technically, KQ would have traded at KES 14 by today Would have, could have, should have but didn't happen. KQ now below 7 bob, at 6.86. Prediction didn't happen by 28.10.2018 but did only 4 months later. Reminds of KenGen vs KK Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I hope KQLC is selling this piece of junk! sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Year offering traders massive discounts.. KQ at KES 7.95 is witchcraft 7.00 was the VWAP on 21st Sep 2018 Dear @Obiero, please rally your relatives to buy KQLC's stake. Say no more.. watch and learn  You better exit quickly if you can. If you look at the chart closely, you will see that the price is falling over the cliff on a large volume. Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs How much cash have you milked from KQ  In wazua we share opportunities for making money, it's not about me  True captain In just 7 trading sessions between Sept 24th to 02nd October.. We have seen a heavy spike of KES 7.10 to KES 11 representing 57% gains on the KQ share. Next stop KES 14.. Thank me later  Let me leave this here  @sparkly it's not too late to call off the bet  The rally of a lifetime being witnessed by outsiders. Only one wazuan has opened up to the opportunity  On an uptrend.. Imaginary cliffs dispelled. Resistance levels at KES 21.5  Now below 6 bob. The cliff if very real! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/15/2019 Posts: 33
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Like each year at this time I am also asking myself the same question – who is going to be the winner of the market for this year? I was considering tech industry as potential winner as they underperformed during last year. Eventually AMZN took first place in 2018
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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@sprakly this gem by @obiero "Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs" Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,211 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@sprakly this gem by @obiero
"Traders milking the cash making opportunity while Buffetists hallucinate over cliffs"
Very well written by @obiero
KQ ABP 4.26
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