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Mobile Loans Ponzi
MaichBlack
#41 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 5:28:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,845
What kind of regulations do you want from the problems you have highlighted? Vet gamblers? Visit mama mbogas kiosk to see how the business is doing?

And kindly don't talk about interest rates coz that would mean no costing of the risk you talk about.

Kindly give a list of things you think need to be done that fall into your new regulation argument.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#42 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 5:37:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,845
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
tom_boy
#43 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 5:48:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
I am seeing serious parallels between our mobile loans and mortgage crisis of 2000. For mobile loans its worse because there is not even the pretense of loan being asset backed.

The mobile loan segment is bound to grow. Bank execs will get more and more careless in lending via mobile because it offers high short term returns thus higher short term bonuses.

People who resort to mobile loans are usually the financially vulnerable. These people get hit first and hardest by economic issues.

As mobile loans grow and constitute the bigger chunk of a banks loan book, we should see more and more provisioning as these are high risk borrowers. However, for this to happen, we need to see data on mobile loans advanced vs default rates and timings. Its about time they were classified as a seperate bank asset class and tracked accordingly ( regulation no. 1)

Banks should be curtailed on how much they can loan to mobile. A regulation should be in place to say that a bank should not have more than 30% of total loans as mobile loan ( regulation 2). I know some will say that banks need to make money. However, that money they are lending is partly my money (deposits). Why should a bank exec put a large portion of my deposits on a high risk asset then earn fat bonus at my expense. In case of widespread default, I will lose my deposits while he goes home with his bonuses.

Widespread defaults do happen. Refer to mortgage crisis of 2000. These defaults are unpredictable, and the reasons behind them are once in a lifetime reasons. Therefore, no use asking for examples from the past.

As an economy, CBK must step in to regulate mobile loans sector. CBK governor has expressed concerns about money laundering under guise of mobile loans provider.

From the Lenders perspective, mobile loans is a Ponzi. You are giving money to people you dont know, dont know their ability to pay back, dont know their sources of income, dont know how the money will be used. Meanwhile, you expect exponentially high returns. As the scheme grows, more people will join in. They will feel safe while living on the edge of default. Their credit ratings grow as a cohort over the months and years. Then something happens and people just cant pay. Cash flow dries up in the economy almost instanteneously.

They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
tom_boy
#44 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 6:02:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!



Inflation is affected by money supply. The greater the money supply, the higher the inflation and vice versa.

In your opinion, do mobile loans increase or decrease money supply in Kenya. Tafakari hayo.


They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
VyaBureSiachi
#45 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 6:21:14 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/27/2018
Posts: 59
Location: Cambrian Dc
....or you could just have the banks set up separate companies for this purpose and thus ring fence the risk and protect the depositors funds.
If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
murchr
#46 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 6:49:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VyaBureSiachi wrote:
....or you could just have the banks set up separate companies for this purpose and thus ring fence the risk and protect the depositors funds.


All loans are risky and depositors funds are insured (KDIC)
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#47 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 6:53:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!



Inflation is affected by money supply. The greater the money supply, the higher the inflation and vice versa.

In your opinion, do mobile loans increase or decrease money supply in Kenya. Tafakari hayo.




As long as CBK is controlling the money in the economy, what would your worry be?

Would you sleep better if the money stayed in banks without circulating?

What mobile money is doing, and this is not limited to loans, is increasing the velocity of circulation. If it was taking you 5 days to send money to Bungoma, its now instant. If it was taking someone 2 months to get a loan from a bank, that has been shortened to 1 day or less.

Am still waiting to see how the Ponzi issue is coming in?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
MaichBlack
#48 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 7:29:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,845
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!

There is a good reason I told you I am out @tom_boy. You are all over the place with your arguments and evidently you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Read the part in bold. You wrote that yourself.

And as of comparing a 30 year loan (mortgage) to a 30 day loan (mobile), seriously!!??

You need to talk to someone to explain to you the basics of banking and loans. They should start by explaining:-

1) How does the risk profile affect the tenure of a loan. How do banks decided on the tenure vis a vis the risk profile.

2) How comes most banks give loans of up to a maximum 3 years for unsecured salary (account) loans. Extreme cases would be 5 years. But very rare.

3) Why are banks willing to give an individual a 30 year loan (mortgage) yet most wouldn't give even an established company a 30 year loan!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#49 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 7:34:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,845
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation? I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!



Inflation is affected by money supply. The greater the money supply, the higher the inflation and vice versa.

In your opinion, do mobile loans increase or decrease money supply in Kenya. Tafakari hayo.



Loans at high interest rate for short tenure don't increase money supply. It might actually reduce money supply especially if you borrow for consumption. Money that you would have spent in the future will end up with the bank (in terms of [high] interest rate).

I hate boring wazuans with obvious details but if you insist I can give you a practical example of how you end up with less money to spend in the long run if you borrow at high rates for short term for consumption!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
tom_boy
#50 Posted : Wednesday, January 09, 2019 7:40:27 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
MaichBlack wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Gathige wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
I dont see how some people do not see mobile loans as a form of ponzi scheme. Njoroge borrows from A to repay B. Each time his loan gets bigger and bigger until eventually he will default.

I bet most people do not do any value creating work with this cash.

What % of total loans goes to mobile lending?
What % of this ends up in sport pesa et al?



The part I like about mobile money is the ease by which the meet the customers needs. You can imagine someone who needs fare to get to a work site who will be paid at the end of the day. He borrows the fare, gets back in the evening and then repays his loan and builds his credit profile. The overall interest rate may be higher than conventional rates but the ease and convenice is great.


Would you borrow from a bank if you know outright the interest rate is 50% pa, of course not. I think therein lies the risk to the greater economy since i believe it is not sustainable in the long run.

No you wouldn't but the math biz guys are doing is simple what I end up with minus what I've spent(per day).

Remember, life is very expensive in the kadogo economy

These loans have their target audience and most wazuans are not in that category. Mama mboga takes a loan in the morning buys her wares sells them by evening and repays the loan (even if it rolls over) If she borrows 2700, turn over is 5,000/= and she pays 3,000/=, she just made a cool 2,000/= she couldn't have made. Hiyo ndiyo hesabu take which makes a lot of sense!!! Come December, she decides to start selling live chicken on the side. She borrows 20,000/= at the beginning of the month, buys and sells chicken the whole month, at the end of the month she has gross of 60,000/= from chicken sales for the month she pays say 24,000/= and remains with 36,000/= she couldn't have made.

It suddenly starts raining, a hawker with no "float" quickly borrows some money, rushes to Kamukunji or wherever buys umbrellas sells most of them the same day, makes a tidy sum and repays the same day or within 30 days depending on his "business plan".

Not everything in the market is meant for everyone.


Those are great stories but is there data that this is what is actually happening? I understand borrowing a few times to cover some shortfall in a business. I dont get this mama mboga who wakes up daily to borrow money and repay in the evening. I dont get these hawker - rain scenarios occuring very often in a year. Do these people account for the billions traded daily on mobile lending? I think not.

Even if it were to be the case, what kadogo economy are we building? One dependent on exorbitant interest rates. As volumes grow, wont [color = red]these high rates in themselves accelerate inflation?[/color] I am not sure that mobile loans can provide necessary break through momentum for any business. Its a loan that helps you marktime with an illusion of progress or even slowly drag you down. One default, a few bad business days and you are a defaulter, back to square 0.

Meanwhile, mobile loans deny SMEs much needed capital.

Here you were talking about inflation and denying SMEs credit.

And unfortunately you have no idea what you are talking about!!! A first year Economics student will tell you High interest rates LOWER inflation and lower interest rates increase inflation

Economics 101: Relationship between interest rates and inflation

And for that reason, I am out!!!

There is a good reason I told you I am out @tom_boy. You are all over the place with your arguments and evidently you are just arguing for the sake of arguing. Read the part in bold. You wrote that yourself.my exact statement is "
as volumes grow ( increased lending) the high rates will accelerate inflation
This , I believe is an unprecedented economic situation where increased money supply is associated with high interest rates.

And as of comparing a 30 year loan (mortgage) to a 30 day loan (mobile), seriously!!??

You need to talk to someone to explain to you the basics of banking and loans. They should start by explaining:-

1) How does the risk profile affect the tenure of a loan. How do banks decided on the tenure vis a vis the risk profile.

2) How comes most banks give loans of up to a maximum 3 years for unsecured salary (account) loans. Extreme cases would be 5 years. But very rare.

3) Why are banks willing to give an individual a 30 year loan (mortgage) yet most wouldn't give even an established company a 30 year loan!!!

They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
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