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Madness at the NSE
Ericsson
#1651 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 11:11:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)

@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.


Almasi was formed after the amalgamation of the following;
--Mt Kenya Bottlers
--Kisii Bottlers
--Rift Valley Bottlers
Ownership is 100% in all of them.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#1652 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 11:15:25 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?


If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon?

The worst case scenario is ZERO.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1653 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 12:15:42 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?


If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon?

The worst case scenario is ZERO.



There you go. Kama ARM I guess.

So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here.

Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market.

VituVingiSana
#1654 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:09:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?


If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon?

The worst case scenario is ZERO.



There you go. Kama ARM I guess.

So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here.

Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market.
All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees.
Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls.
EABL: We become an islamic state.
Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks.

Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management]

YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1655 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 1:23:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?


If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon?

The worst case scenario is ZERO.



There you go. Kama ARM I guess.

So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here.

Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market.
All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees.
Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls.
EABL: We become an islamic state.
Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks.

Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management]

YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB.



Best wishes
VituVingiSana
#1656 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 2:40:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum.
And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. d'oh!

Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" Shame on you
One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies.

KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight
Unga - Maize drama
Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization
Agriculture - Extortion at the county level
Fuel - Taxes and more taxes

@Horton - Thanks
@Ericsson - Thanks
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#1657 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 9:59:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum.
And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. d'oh!

Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" Shame on you
One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies.

KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight
Unga - Maize drama
Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization
Agriculture - Extortion at the county level
Fuel - Taxes and more taxes

@Horton - Thanks
@Ericsson - Thanks


@VVS

Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3)

In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below.

http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae
VituVingiSana
#1658 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 10:22:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum.
And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. d'oh!

Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" Shame on you
One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies.

KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight
Unga - Maize drama
Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization
Agriculture - Extortion at the county level
Fuel - Taxes and more taxes

@Horton - Thanks
@Ericsson - Thanks


@VVS

Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3)

In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below.

http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae
Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#1659 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 10:58:04 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum.
And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. d'oh!

Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" Shame on you
One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies.

KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight
Unga - Maize drama
Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization
Agriculture - Extortion at the county level
Fuel - Taxes and more taxes

@Horton - Thanks
@Ericsson - Thanks


@VVS

Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3)

In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below.

http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae
Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC

Anytime! Am not with either. Got the info from Kestrel Capital
Horton
#1660 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 11:19:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Skin in the game ..... overrated?

So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
VituVingiSana
#1661 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 12:11:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
Skin in the game ..... overrated?

So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms.

I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done.

I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value]

On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares.

Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc

Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Let's see where they end up!

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1662 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 1:03:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Skin in the game ..... overrated?

So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms.

I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done.

I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value]

On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares.

Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc

Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Let's see where they end up!



Exactly my point 😆😆. I try not to make this a must have requirement ie “don’t buy shares unless CEO has skin in the game ”
VituVingiSana
#1663 Posted : Wednesday, November 21, 2018 8:56:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,342
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Skin in the game ..... overrated?

So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms.

I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done.

I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value]

On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares.

Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc

Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Let's see where they end up!



Exactly my point 😆😆. I try not to make this a must have requirement ie “don’t buy shares unless CEO has skin in the game ”
WB and CM are NDANI Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
lochaz-index
#1664 Posted : Thursday, November 22, 2018 7:36:24 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Finally the Jan 2017 low has been smashed and we are at levels never seen in this decade. NSE 20 currently at 2783.
We were last here twice last decade, in October 2004, when Kibaki was still new in the Presidency, and April 2009 during the GFC. Yes 9 years of gains wiped out of the NSE. What separates us now from the Sept 2002 lows of 1005 is the 2360 GFC low of March 2009......more popcorns pleasePray




Closed at 2769 yesterday. Rough couple of weeks in most markets with few and far in between pockets of resilience. NSE's ambivalence was quite surprising. Let's see how much of that carnage is priced in. Watch out for cracks in the credit market, things should get more interesting as another fed hike draws closer.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Ericsson
#1665 Posted : Wednesday, November 28, 2018 8:02:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
20% uptick on key counters as we head towards end of the year
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
168 Pages«<109110111112113>»
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