Wazua
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Pg 64 30% Market Share No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each. FY17 - 15mn cases FY18 - 18mn cases (goal) FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)
@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.
Almasi was formed after the amalgamation of the following; --Mt Kenya Bottlers --Kisii Bottlers --Rift Valley Bottlers Ownership is 100% in all of them. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market. All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees. Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls. EABL: We become an islamic state. Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks. Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management] YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider 😆😆 Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁 I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn 😆) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon? The worst case scenario is ZERO. There you go. Kama ARM I guess. So as you invest think about their valuation metrics. @Ericsson had expressed his uneasiness about this a while back. I didn’t think much until I really dug in. Thereafter sold all my shares here. Perhaps 28/- is a good entry point but there are other companies with great value on the market. All firms, in a worst case scenario, are valued at ZERO. There are no guarantees. Safcom: A new invention that allows extremely cheap internet access. Or calls. EABL: We become an islamic state. Almasi: Folks decide to give up sugary drinks. Back to Almasi and Centum. More research required given I am looking at Centum as a potential "Core Holding" [It's more complex given the multiple businesses and aggressive management] YES. It's the 28/- that's attractive. Even if I deducted 20% from 73 = 57 this is 50% PB. Best wishes
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:It's too soon to buy Centum as a Core Holding BUT never too soon to start researching Centum. And if Rubis backs out, then no more Centum. Others that look attractive to me include Saf, more I&M and more Equity. I just don't want 2 banks as "Core" One can't trust this government's knee-jerk policies. KenRe - Replacing Mwarania overnight Unga - Maize drama Banks - Rate Cap, CBK "enforcement" and demonization Agriculture - Extortion at the county level Fuel - Taxes and more taxes @Horton - Thanks @Ericsson - Thanks @VVS Centum Investment will announce their 1H19 results on Monday 26th November 2018. The Company will host an Investor Briefing at the Villa Rosa Kempinski, starting 7:00am EAT (GMT +3) In addition, the Company will hold a Conference Call at 3:30pm EAT (GMT +3) and you may signup for that call by clicking on the link below. http://services.choruscall.za.c...SecurityString=36653b3ae Thanks! Are you with Centum? Or a broker? I will sign up for the CC Anytime! Am not with either. Got the info from Kestrel Capital
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Skin in the game ..... overrated?
So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:Skin in the game ..... overrated?
So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated? Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms. I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done. I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value] On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares. Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too  Let's see where they end up! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Skin in the game ..... overrated?
So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated? Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms. I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done. I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value] On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares. Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too  Let's see where they end up! Exactly my point 😆😆. I try not to make this a must have requirement ie “don’t buy shares unless CEO has skin in the game ”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Skin in the game ..... overrated?
So the last couple of firms to go down the dark road ARM & DEACONS CEOs both had skin in the game. Is this trait overrated? Firms will fail. It has happened for as long as there were firms and farms. I feel sorry for both of them given they had real money at stake and didn't sell like some could have done. I feel better in firms where the management has skin in the game. James Mwangi, BC Patel (as a director), James Mworia, etc. [Building value] On the other hand, the former CEO of the largest destroyer of wealth in KE, had zero shares. Some are crooks e.g. Matu who eats from the other 95%, Merali whose insider dealings eats most of the profits, Ndegwas with their conflicts (selling Ennsvalley to Unga), etc Dande, Arora, etc have "skin in the game" too  Let's see where they end up! Exactly my point 😆😆. I try not to make this a must have requirement ie “don’t buy shares unless CEO has skin in the game ” WB and CM are NDANI Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Finally the Jan 2017 low has been smashed and we are at levels never seen in this decade. NSE 20 currently at 2783. We were last here twice last decade, in October 2004, when Kibaki was still new in the Presidency, and April 2009 during the GFC. Yes 9 years of gains wiped out of the NSE. What separates us now from the Sept 2002 lows of 1005 is the 2360 GFC low of March 2009......more popcorns please  Closed at 2769 yesterday. Rough couple of weeks in most markets with few and far in between pockets of resilience. NSE's ambivalence was quite surprising. Let's see how much of that carnage is priced in. Watch out for cracks in the credit market, things should get more interesting as another fed hike draws closer. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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20% uptick on key counters as we head towards end of the year Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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