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Madness at the NSE
Horton
#1641 Posted : Monday, November 19, 2018 8:15:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.


VituVingiSana
#1642 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 6:45:40 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1643 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 9:03:45 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?
cyruskulei
#1644 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 9:26:21 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 320
Location: kenya
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?



Centum has a 27.62 per cent stake in Nairobi Bottlers β€” which it says accounts for half of Coca-Cola branded sodas sold in the Kenyan market.

Its shares in the four Coca-Cola bottling companies represented 28 per cent of its assets and contributed 20 per cent of its profit and two per cent of the cash flow in the year to March 2012.

The merged unit will become the second largest in market share among the Coca-Cola bottlers in Kenya with 29 per cent, behind Nairobi Bottlers which controls 48 per cent of the market.

Coast Bottlers has 11 per cent market share, Equator 12 per cent, Kisii nine per cent while Rift Valley and Mt Kenya control 10 per cent each.

https://www.businessdail...73482-10pvarx/index.html
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.

Ericsson
#1645 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 9:32:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
cyruskulei wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
[quote=VituVingiSana]@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?



Centum has a 27.62 per cent stake in Nairobi Bottlers β€” which it says accounts for half of Coca-Cola branded sodas sold in the Kenyan market.

Its shares in the four Coca-Cola bottling companies represented 28 per cent of its assets and contributed 20 per cent of its profit and two per cent of the cash flow in the year to March 2012.

The merged unit will become the second largest in market share among the Coca-Cola bottlers in Kenya with 29 per cent, behind Nairobi Bottlers which controls 48 per cent of the market.

Coast Bottlers has 11 per cent market share, Equator 12 per cent, Kisii nine per cent while Rift Valley and Mt Kenya control 10 per cent each.

https://www.businessdail...3482-10pvarx/index.html[/quote]
That was 6 years ago which has been passed by events.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#1646 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 10:15:13 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#1647 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 10:26:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)

@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1648 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 10:39:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)

@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.


Year end is dec

So there was a drop in profits from FY16. Alana’s I shares are hard to come by.
VituVingiSana
#1649 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 10:45:09 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,344
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)

@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.


Year end is dec

So there was a drop in profits from FY16. Alana’s I shares are hard to come by.

Do you get 1H results? Centum may give us more info on Monday.
FY17 was tough for many firms. The elections are a real pain in KE.

If Almasi can get to 23mn cases in FY19 then that should be a huge boost in EBITDA. The narration on Pg 64 said Almasi is the fastest growing Coke bottler.

Given 7.50 looks cheap (5.72 PER), I am surprised there aren't more buyers including Centum for the shares. I would make it a core holding.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#1650 Posted : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 10:48:21 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own?


Horton is an insider


πŸ˜†πŸ˜† Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by

@VVS I have em on mail.

Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety.

PAT=1.7B

1.3B shares issued.

So EPS 1/- & change?!

Shareholder Equity =7.4B

So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness 😁

I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124)


Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation?

Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?

I do not know
Questions:
Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect?
Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium?

Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x
Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x
Any other FMCG PERs?


If you look at non-listed firms, they don’t sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn πŸ˜†) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I don’t think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case that’s being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since it’s a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I don’t know what do the accountants reckon?


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