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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:Tips for preparing your portfolio for economic slowdown and bear run;
--Own stocks with good balance sheets and low debts
--Consider short duration and bonds
--Have at least 10% cash in your portfolio.
 That's what I learnt when I decided to follow WB's lessons excluding some small forays into stuff like ARM  My core picks have remained consistent since they have low net debts. KenRe is cash-rich [but GoK controlled] I&M is cash-rich [but it is a bank and there's always a risk of a run] KK has low debt [I have excluded WC debt given it finances easy to liquidate inventory] Unga has low/moderate debt [but it has taken on more debt recently for the new Eldoret plant + inventory] Safaricom - Zero debt [and huge cashflow inflows] Centum - Moderate debt but manageable debt levels. Working Capital is a double-edged sword. Firms like KK need huge levels of WC, which is financed by borrowing, but for inventory that can easily be sold. Unga faces a different challenge given inventory prices/value are dependent on GoK but it's FMCG so it can cash out at a manageable loss. FX is also a risk. Balance Sheets measure "debt" at a point in time which could skew the analysis. The completion of the sale of an asset, proceeds used to pay down debt, could be delayed for a few days after the date of the Balance Sheet. On the surface, the debt situation looks dire but once the sale is completed, it will improve dramatically. Centum debt is not moderate What's their debt? Ksh.24.64bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...r-ended-31st-march-2018 Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn What is the figure of cash.The figure I see is ksh.5.8bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...udited_Results_FY18.pdf
The Company not Group. The reason I am looking at Company is that the Group debt includes debt allocated to Non-Controlling Interests. From a Group perspective, the net debt is 18.6bn vs Assets of 96bn Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn Centum is an Investment Company. Their debt should be analysed as Inventory i.e on a year to year basis. Please explain. Their "business" is investment. This means that they can take up huge amounts of other people's money as long as their mark-up covers the cost of funds to the creditors plus their operating costs. Similar to what banks do. Based on your explanation which other people's money has centum taken According to FY18 Almasi Beverages contributed 10.96 to the Centum NAV this is on Page 43. How did they arrive at this figure? Is it on actual Almasi NAV? No Because Almasi NAV per share is 4/- or thereabouts on my last check from Almasi financials..... Is it on price per share of Almasi? No because I bought my shares at a higher price than market at Kes 7.60 and this is a far cry from the 11/- quoted.... Any clues on this one guys? The only reason I had centum was because of Almasi and NBL but since I could buy Almasi without the Centum baggage, this is when I offloaded Centum to by Almasi and luckily at 44/- mark. Massaging results to hoodwink shareholders and investors Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:Tips for preparing your portfolio for economic slowdown and bear run;
--Own stocks with good balance sheets and low debts
--Consider short duration and bonds
--Have at least 10% cash in your portfolio.
That's what I learnt when I decided to follow WB's lessons excluding some small forays into stuff like ARM My core picks have remained consistent since they have low net debts. KenRe is cash-rich [but GoK controlled] I&M is cash-rich [but it is a bank and there's always a risk of a run] KK has low debt [I have excluded WC debt given it finances easy to liquidate inventory] Unga has low/moderate debt [but it has taken on more debt recently for the new Eldoret plant + inventory] Safaricom - Zero debt [and huge cashflow inflows] Centum - Moderate debt but manageable debt levels. Working Capital is a double-edged sword. Firms like KK need huge levels of WC, which is financed by borrowing, but for inventory that can easily be sold. Unga faces a different challenge given inventory prices/value are dependent on GoK but it's FMCG so it can cash out at a manageable loss. FX is also a risk. Balance Sheets measure "debt" at a point in time which could skew the analysis. The completion of the sale of an asset, proceeds used to pay down debt, could be delayed for a few days after the date of the Balance Sheet. On the surface, the debt situation looks dire but once the sale is completed, it will improve dramatically. Centum debt is not moderate What's their debt? Ksh.24.64bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...r-ended-31st-march-2018 Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn What is the figure of cash.The figure I see is ksh.5.8bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...udited_Results_FY18.pdf
The Company not Group. The reason I am looking at Company is that the Group debt includes debt allocated to Non-Controlling Interests. From a Group perspective, the net debt is 18.6bn vs Assets of 96bn Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn Centum is an Investment Company. Their debt should be analysed as Inventory i.e on a year to year basis. Please explain. Their "business" is investment. This means that they can take up huge amounts of other people's money as long as their mark-up covers the cost of funds to the creditors plus their operating costs. Similar to what banks do. Based on your explanation which other people's money has centum taken According to FY18 Almasi Beverages contributed 10.96 to the Centum NAV this is on Page 43. How did they arrive at this figure? Is it on actual Almasi NAV? No Because Almasi NAV per share is 4/- or thereabouts on my last check from Almasi financials..... Is it on price per share of Almasi? No because I bought my shares at a higher price than market at Kes 7.60 and this is a far cry from the 11/- quoted.... Any clues on this one guys? The only reason I had centum was because of Almasi and NBL but since I could buy Almasi without the Centum baggage, this is when I offloaded Centum to by Almasi and luckily at 44/- mark. Massaging results to hoodwink shareholders and investors Perhaps they conservatively added the NAV to the current price to get the βcorrect NAVβ ?!?! ππππ
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful! What's Almasi's EPS? What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Ericsson wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:Tips for preparing your portfolio for economic slowdown and bear run;
--Own stocks with good balance sheets and low debts
--Consider short duration and bonds
--Have at least 10% cash in your portfolio.
That's what I learnt when I decided to follow WB's lessons excluding some small forays into stuff like ARM My core picks have remained consistent since they have low net debts. KenRe is cash-rich [but GoK controlled] I&M is cash-rich [but it is a bank and there's always a risk of a run] KK has low debt [I have excluded WC debt given it finances easy to liquidate inventory] Unga has low/moderate debt [but it has taken on more debt recently for the new Eldoret plant + inventory] Safaricom - Zero debt [and huge cashflow inflows] Centum - Moderate debt but manageable debt levels. Working Capital is a double-edged sword. Firms like KK need huge levels of WC, which is financed by borrowing, but for inventory that can easily be sold. Unga faces a different challenge given inventory prices/value are dependent on GoK but it's FMCG so it can cash out at a manageable loss. FX is also a risk. Balance Sheets measure "debt" at a point in time which could skew the analysis. The completion of the sale of an asset, proceeds used to pay down debt, could be delayed for a few days after the date of the Balance Sheet. On the surface, the debt situation looks dire but once the sale is completed, it will improve dramatically. Centum debt is not moderate What's their debt? Ksh.24.64bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...r-ended-31st-march-2018 Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn What is the figure of cash.The figure I see is ksh.5.8bn http://www.centum.co.ke/...udited_Results_FY18.pdf
The Company not Group. The reason I am looking at Company is that the Group debt includes debt allocated to Non-Controlling Interests. From a Group perspective, the net debt is 18.6bn vs Assets of 96bn Company's Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash) is 13.765bn vs Assets of 61.57bn Centum is an Investment Company. Their debt should be analysed as Inventory i.e on a year to year basis. Please explain. Their "business" is investment. This means that they can take up huge amounts of other people's money as long as their mark-up covers the cost of funds to the creditors plus their operating costs. Similar to what banks do. Based on your explanation which other people's money has centum taken 1. Corporate Bond; 2. Privately arranged debt, similar to the Cytonn CMS but only available to those with 50m and above. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/9/2010 Posts: 320 Location: kenya
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? Centum has a 27.62 per cent stake in Nairobi Bottlers β which it says accounts for half of Coca-Cola branded sodas sold in the Kenyan market. Its shares in the four Coca-Cola bottling companies represented 28 per cent of its assets and contributed 20 per cent of its profit and two per cent of the cash flow in the year to March 2012. The merged unit will become the second largest in market share among the Coca-Cola bottlers in Kenya with 29 per cent, behind Nairobi Bottlers which controls 48 per cent of the market. Coast Bottlers has 11 per cent market share, Equator 12 per cent, Kisii nine per cent while Rift Valley and Mt Kenya control 10 per cent each. https://www.businessdail...73482-10pvarx/index.htmlWork hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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cyruskulei wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:[quote=VituVingiSana]@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? Centum has a 27.62 per cent stake in Nairobi Bottlers β which it says accounts for half of Coca-Cola branded sodas sold in the Kenyan market. Its shares in the four Coca-Cola bottling companies represented 28 per cent of its assets and contributed 20 per cent of its profit and two per cent of the cash flow in the year to March 2012. The merged unit will become the second largest in market share among the Coca-Cola bottlers in Kenya with 29 per cent, behind Nairobi Bottlers which controls 48 per cent of the market. Coast Bottlers has 11 per cent market share, Equator 12 per cent, Kisii nine per cent while Rift Valley and Mt Kenya control 10 per cent each. https://www.businessdail...3482-10pvarx/index.html[/quote] That was 6 years ago which has been passed by events. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Pg 64 30% Market Share No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each. FY17 - 15mn cases FY18 - 18mn cases (goal) FY19 - 23mn cases (goal) @Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)
@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.
Year end is dec So there was a drop in profits from FY16. Alanaβs I shares are hard to come by.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,342 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Pg 64
30% Market Share
No mention of which firms/bottlers constitute Almasi. Or ownership in each.
FY17 - 15mn cases
FY18 - 18mn cases (goal)
FY19 - 23mn cases (goal)
@Horton - What's the year end? When would you get the next annual report? I would not mind buying a few Almasi so I can get additional info.
Year end is dec So there was a drop in profits from FY16. Alanaβs I shares are hard to come by. Do you get 1H results? Centum may give us more info on Monday. FY17 was tough for many firms. The elections are a real pain in KE. If Almasi can get to 23mn cases in FY19 then that should be a huge boost in EBITDA. The narration on Pg 64 said Almasi is the fastest growing Coke bottler. Given 7.50 looks cheap (5.72 PER), I am surprised there aren't more buyers including Centum for the shares. I would make it a core holding. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@horton - Where can I get Almasi's financials? Google hasn't been helpful!
What's Almasi's EPS?
What % of each of the 3 bottlers does Almasi own? Horton is an insider ππ Mimi ni memba. Bought shares in Almasi last year. I must say they hard to come by @VVS I have em on mail. Almasi owns the 3 bottlers in entirety. PAT=1.7B 1.3B shares issued. So EPS 1/- & change?! Shareholder Equity =7.4B So NAV is 6/-? Pole for my earlier miscalculation it must be my feebleness π I did some digging and from Centum AR they valued Almasi as 9.91 multiple of EBITDA. Refer to Page 123. It's 6.94x EBITDA (Pg 124) Remember seeing 9.91 either way you happy with the valuation? Coz if they were to liquidate today, do you think they would get that price yet market value of almasi is at 7.5? I do not know Questions: Are Almasi sales still growing? Have they mentioned what % growth they expect? Do you think Centum's controlling stake could attract a premium? Rubis is buying KK at a FY18 PER of 11x Seaboard bought Unga shares at FY17 PER of 7x Any other FMCG PERs? If you look at non-listed firms, they donβt sugar coat their prospects (except Cytonn π) there is also no mention of what they expect to grow at. I donβt think Centum would sell these shares if anything they are on accumulate mode unless a really juicy offer came along. What Centum have done pricing these may be acceptable in accounting but is this the most conservative method of valuation? In my opinion you price your assets based on worst case scenario not on best case thatβs being conservative. Or if they have sold shares on that price or is the market or OTC price then it makes sense in my books. Since itβs a subsidiary should NAV of Almasi be taken as exactly that? I donβt know what do the accountants reckon?
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