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Has the real estate bubble burst????
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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maka wrote:Swenani wrote:maka wrote:limanika wrote:I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum Have you gus gone through the document?How do I put the pdf here? Send to wazuafishmonger@gmail.com Sawa Tuma huko wazuagoogle ... pris! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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maka wrote:limanika wrote:I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum Have you gus gone through the document?How do I put the pdf here? Rink? Kindly post the rink I will be very happy to prove myself wrong
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/1/2010 Posts: 87 Location: Zimbalabala
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tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan ....  ..... Fake ironman ..... you must be an idiot!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/22/2009 Posts: 206
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the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/22/2009 Posts: 206
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MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. If you think flipping is a foreign concept in Kenya, you know nothing about the local real estate market. 15 years or so ago, flipping was common in Kenya. Back then, it was common for a property to change ownership thrice or more within a period of two years, with each seller making a tidy profit. Today, it is virtually impossible to flip a property, meaning buyers are hard to find. In fact, I've started noticing a trend of late where retirees who want to leave the city are struggling to sell their houses. In fact, there's one who has been dropping his asking price by about 2 million every year and still can't find a buyer for his property located in BuruBuru.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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TNT wrote:MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. If you think flipping is a foreign concept in Kenya, you know nothing about the local real estate market. 15 years or so ago, flipping was common in Kenya. Back then, it was common for a property to change ownership thrice or more within a period of two years, with each seller making a tidy profit. Today, it is virtually impossible to flip a property, meaning buyers are hard to find. In fact, I've started noticing a trend of late where retirees who want to leave the city are struggling to sell their houses. In fact, there's one who has been dropping his asking price by about 2 million every year and still can't find a buyer for his property located in BuruBuru. Let me know when he is ready to give it out for free If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Swenani wrote:TNT wrote:MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. If you think flipping is a foreign concept in Kenya, you know nothing about the local real estate market. 15 years or so ago, flipping was common in Kenya. Back then, it was common for a property to change ownership thrice or more within a period of two years, with each seller making a tidy profit. Today, it is virtually impossible to flip a property, meaning buyers are hard to find. In fact, I've started noticing a trend of late where retirees who want to leave the city are struggling to sell their houses. In fact, there's one who has been dropping his asking price by about 2 million every year and still can't find a buyer for his property located in BuruBuru. Let me know when he is ready to give it out for free Buru buru has been turned into a slum, that could be the reason why he is not getting buyer soonest. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/22/2009 Posts: 206
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Swenani wrote:TNT wrote:MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. If you think flipping is a foreign concept in Kenya, you know nothing about the local real estate market. 15 years or so ago, flipping was common in Kenya. Back then, it was common for a property to change ownership thrice or more within a period of two years, with each seller making a tidy profit. Today, it is virtually impossible to flip a property, meaning buyers are hard to find. In fact, I've started noticing a trend of late where retirees who want to leave the city are struggling to sell their houses. In fact, there's one who has been dropping his asking price by about 2 million every year and still can't find a buyer for his property located in BuruBuru. Let me know when he is ready to give it out for free Better yet, I could keep the property for myself, especially since his kids are abroad and the Kenyan market lacks a reverse mortgage facility.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. When you buy that plot in the middle of Nairobi national park and cut it into small maguta maguta pieces ... that's not flipping land? Flipping houses is a dead. Too much supply but flipping is alive and well in proti maguta maguta!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
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MugundaMan wrote:TNT wrote:the deal wrote:People here are confusing supply glut in certain segments of the market to a real estate bubble...I say its a buyers market...its time to go shopping...the bubble will burst when Housing Finance goes under receivership... Flipping properties is one of the key characteristics of a hot property market. So when's the last time you saw a property investor flip a property in Nairobi? Flipping is an alien concept in Kenya baba. Simply because the dynamics of the real estate industry hapa are different. In TX it is easy to buy a rickety old 70k property built in the 1960s, do some landscaping, paintwork and replace old carpet and remodel the kitchen and sell for 90 or even 100k but in Kenya given the high values ascribed to even the most modest of properties, such techniques would not fly. Renovating a 15m house in Kitengela would not turn it into a 20m house in a month or two no matter how many capital improvements you put into it. Nevertheless it is possible to flip new properties and many people have been doing it. It works just like land. Buy a house, maybe off plan, and sit on it for a while. Then put it back on the Market at a higher price than you bought it. The other, even more lucrative flip, is to buy a plot build a house on it and then sell. Until recently, this has been the easiest way to double your money legally. Granted I have not seen anyone do flips of late and the number of family units I see sitting unsold in Membley, Kamakis, Kitengela, Ngong etc is an indication that the market could have turned. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Guys, I think we need to define what flipping is as we may not be on the same page. A flip to me is to buy an already existing house/apartment/maisonettes, make capital improvements on it and then resell within one or two months for a huge profit exceeding the general rate of appreciation of a property. Which means: - Buying a plot constructing on it over a year and selling does not qualify. That's developing, not flipping. - Buying a house, waiting a year for it to appreciate at the general pace in Kenya and selling does not qualify either. That is simply buying and selling in the normal manner all real estate is bought and sold. (This can also be defined as good business  ) - Buying huge parcels and slicing for resale would not be flipping either. That would be subdivision and resale. Like buying a bunch of 10 bananas for 50 Bob and selling each for 10 Bob. Flipping land simply cannot happen outside of the normal rate of appreciation that most buyers are familiar with which means it cannot work unless you sell to a complete fool who has no clue what current general prices in an area are nor does their due diligence. You can't buy a quarter in Kitengela primes for 3m then a week or month later sell for 4m. That would be a flip. Unfortunately that happens almost never in our beautiful Kiinya.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
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MugundaMan wrote:Guys, I think we need to define what flipping is as we may not be on the same page. A flip to me is to buy an already existing house/apartment/maisonettes, make capital improvements on it and then resell within one or two months for a huge profit exceeding the general rate of appreciation of a property. Which means: - Buying a plot constructing on it over a year and selling does not qualify. That's developing, not flipping. - Buying a house, waiting a year for it to appreciate at the general pace in Kenya and selling does not qualify either. That is simply buying and selling in the normal manner all real estate is bought and sold. (This can also be defined as good business ) - Buying huge parcels and slicing for resale would not be flipping either. That would be subdivision and resale. Like buying a bunch of 10 bananas for 50 Bob and selling each for 10 Bob. Flipping land simply cannot happen outside of the normal rate of appreciation that most buyers are familiar with which means it cannot work unless you sell to a complete fool who has no clue what current general prices in an area are nor does their due diligence. You can't buy a quarter in Kitengela primes for 3m then a week or month later sell for 4m. That would be a flip. Unfortunately that happens almost never in our beautiful Kiinya. I am not sure where you are getting your definition of flipping from. Even in the West flipping is not limited to improving property and then selling. One of the most popular real estate tricks, before the 2008 collapse, was flipping condo's. Essentially buying a property just before it is completed and soon after selling it in a rising market for a huge margin. Flipping in my book broadly means "buying low and selling high" It is not even limited to real estate. BTW Wikipedia seems to agree, and I certainly trust Jimmy Wales more than I trust you. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Wakanyugi wrote:I am not sure where you are getting your definition of flipping from. Even in the West flipping is not limited to improving property and then selling. One of the most popular real estate tricks, before the 2008 collapse, was flipping condo's. Essentially buying a property just before it is completed and soon after selling it in a rising market for a huge margin. Flipping in my book broadly means "buying low and selling high" It is not even limited to real estate. BTW Wikipedia seems to agree, and I certainly trust Jimmy Wales more than I trust you. @Wakanyugi does this help? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flipping.asp
Quote:BREAKING DOWN 'Flipping'
Flipping is most strongly associated with real estate, where it refers to a strategy of purchasing properties and selling them on a short time frame (generally less than a year) for a profit. In real estate, flipping usually falls into one of two types. The first type is where real estate investors target properties that are in a rapidly appreciating market and resell with little or no additional investment in the physical property. This is a play on the market conditions rather than the property itself. The second type is a quick fix flip where a real estate investor uses his knowledge of what buyers want to improve undervalued properties with renovations and/or cosmetic changes, known as a reno flip. or how about this? http://www.businessdicti...on/flipping-houses.html
Quote:
Flipping
Quick-profit strategy in which an investor purchases real estate at a discount price and improves the property in order to sell it at a higher price. This can be a very lucrative profit strategy if the housing market is doing well. Old homes and foreclosures are popular properties use in house flipping because the investors can acquire these properties fairly cheap thus increasing the potential profit. Sometimes contractors are used to do the upgrades to the property, but an experienced house flipper may do the work his or herself.
na hili je? https://financial-dictio...ary.com/Flipping+houses
Quote:Flipping
2. The act or practice of buying real estate at a low or moderate price with the intent to resell it for a profit in a short amount of time. Flipping takes two main forms. One may buy several properties, intending to sell them in only a few months hoping that that price goes up. This is most common in areas expected to become big developments. On the other hand, one may buy a single property often with improvements already on it and renovate it with the intention to sell it for a much higher price. I believe the definition of flipping real estate is pretty clear IMHO
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/3/2007 Posts: 1,634
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MugundaMan wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:I am not sure where you are getting your definition of flipping from. Even in the West flipping is not limited to improving property and then selling. One of the most popular real estate tricks, before the 2008 collapse, was flipping condo's. Essentially buying a property just before it is completed and soon after selling it in a rising market for a huge margin. Flipping in my book broadly means "buying low and selling high" It is not even limited to real estate. BTW Wikipedia seems to agree, and I certainly trust Jimmy Wales more than I trust you. @Wakanyugi does this help? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flipping.asp
Quote:BREAKING DOWN 'Flipping'
Flipping is most strongly associated with real estate, where it refers to a strategy of purchasing properties and selling them on a short time frame (generally less than a year) for a profit. In real estate, flipping usually falls into one of two types. The first type is where real estate investors target properties that are in a rapidly appreciating market and resell with little or no additional investment in the physical property. This is a play on the market conditions rather than the property itself. The second type is a quick fix flip where a real estate investor uses his knowledge of what buyers want to improve undervalued properties with renovations and/or cosmetic changes, known as a reno flip. or how about this? http://www.businessdicti...on/flipping-houses.html
Quote:
Flipping
Quick-profit strategy in which an investor purchases real estate at a discount price and improves the property in order to sell it at a higher price. This can be a very lucrative profit strategy if the housing market is doing well. Old homes and foreclosures are popular properties use in house flipping because the investors can acquire these properties fairly cheap thus increasing the potential profit. Sometimes contractors are used to do the upgrades to the property, but an experienced house flipper may do the work his or herself.
na hili je? https://financial-dictio...ary.com/Flipping+houses
Quote:Flipping
2. The act or practice of buying real estate at a low or moderate price with the intent to resell it for a profit in a short amount of time. Flipping takes two main forms. One may buy several properties, intending to sell them in only a few months hoping that that price goes up. This is most common in areas expected to become big developments. On the other hand, one may buy a single property often with improvements already on it and renovate it with the intention to sell it for a much higher price. I believe the definition of flipping real estate is pretty clear IMHO You are picking cherries as usual I have two friends who have been buying 1/8 plots for around 2M, building 3 bed Maisonettes for about 5M and selling the unit for 15M, all in under a year. I call that flipping and it seems your definition above does too. Unfortunately both were caught by Mr Market recently and have two units sitting unsold, only because they still insist on doubling their money. "The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Wakanyugs, Now you are not being serious.  Where in any of the definitions does it talk of flipping involving ACTUAL CONSTRUCTION of a house from start to finish, rather than remodeling, cosmetic improvements (eg repainting, installing new kitchen finishings etc) OR selling an existing property as is hoping to benefit from a rapid climb in prices in a very short time? What you s peak of is DEVELOPING and those margins are very normal in the industry. To construct a maisonette takes six months or less depending on the contractor. You cannot call the entire housing industry in Kenya "flippers" because constructing houses in 6 months and selling them for profit is what real estate developers do every single day my broda. The definition of flipping real estate has been made very clear. In your peculiar super-broad definition of flipping even the mama mboga who sells beans at a profit at Muthurwa market is a flipper. Sometimes arguing for the sake of arguing is just a waste of very valuable time and pointless to boot.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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Wakanyugi don't worry. It's a problem we suffer as Kenyans. Direct translation. Real estate, property means the same thing. House can be included in real estate, property. kaburoti is also real estate, property... But Kenyans somehow confuse property with house. Nyumba. Forgetting that even stocks are property....sigh!! Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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alma1 wrote:Wakanyugi don't worry. It's a problem we suffer as Kenyans. Direct translation.
Real estate, property means the same thing. House can be included in real estate, property. kaburoti is also real estate, property...
But Kenyans somehow confuse property with house. Nyumba. Forgetting that even stocks are property....sigh!! Alma, where has this been in dispute in this entire thread? Wewe ni kengine who seems to just want to "talk" for the sake of talking.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/19/2015 Posts: 2,871 Location: hapo
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MugundaMan wrote:alma1 wrote:Wakanyugi don't worry. It's a problem we suffer as Kenyans. Direct translation.
Real estate, property means the same thing. House can be included in real estate, property. kaburoti is also real estate, property...
But Kenyans somehow confuse property with house. Nyumba. Forgetting that even stocks are property....sigh!! Alma, where has this been in dispute in this entire thread? Wewe ni kengine who seems to just want to "talk" for the sake of talking. Wakanyugi tells you that flipping also means that you buy a kabruti and builds and sell. You insist that's developing. You quote wikipedia about "property"... I mean, English is difficult but not like that. Wakanyugi is totally correct. The flipping market has being going in Kenya for some time now. Unfortunately, even that market is fizzling out. Say it's a semantics issue. But if you go to ADD class of 1999, there is a thesis by a student who shall remain nameless that talks about buying and selling kabrutis as a flipping mechanism. How to profit from flipping etc. Lakini ninaona masomo kwako sio kitu cha rahisi. Kapish? And yes, I do enjoy watching you squirm in being uninformed. Call it my downtime. Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?
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