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Has the real estate bubble burst????
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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MugundaMan wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:
Let us be realistic on time-frame, how long would it take you to get the title into your name, sub divide and sell all the subdivided plots for you to get the return. Anyway good for those making such 'outrageous' profits but I KNOW it is not a walk in the park as it is being portrayed here verses 'other' investments.
Let me sleep easy with bonds courtesy of @maka.
So in other words you are telling us you are very lazy  nani alisema real estate is "a walk in the park" A lazy person cannot even wake up to go on a site visit to inspect a plot on a good Saturday, let alone anything beyond that. That would be expecting too much of them, my sista. Reminds me of one of my relatives. The guy is so lazy to go and deliver an envelope across town may take him three weeks but he always has a very creative excuse as to why the delivery has not happened yet. And it keeps changing daily. Bure ghabisa! I know you now always diverting issues. I stick to my issue of time-frame of acquisition and subdivision of such land into 'tu-plots' and getting buyers for all that i have highlighted that you have conveniently ignored. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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VituVingiSana wrote:MugundaMan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@mugunda wrote : "Which an average plot bila structure EASILY beats per annum. As I told you bro, 11% is crumbs in the R.E. Industry. Someone who buys one acre and subdivides into 7 parcels of 1/8ths can make a 200%+ return NET quite easily without breaking a sweat in a few MONTHS let alone a year. This is not rocket science or some theory in a book my broda this is FACT."
>>> You are a wholesaler/trader. Good for you.
Those buying 1/8ths from you aren't going to make much in capital gains in the near term.
What you are describing is a pyramid scheme of sorts.
I am not knocking your business model of buy wholesale and sell retail. Very sensible business. I see you are now shifting goalposts after we proved your arguments held no water. For the record I am NOT a wholesaler. I just gave you an example of how I have earned a 22% return on one plot I bought in January. What more do you want, my broda? Saying that 1/8ths don't appreciate in Kiinya is like saying the sun will not rise tomorrow. Ask anyone who has bought an 1/8th in Kenya since 1963 if it has appreciated or not year over year. OK. You are right. Good luck! VVS don't let yourself be bluffed by 'fake' facts. Things out there are not straight as they are portrayed to be and we know better. Even when @obiero (just as an example) was constructing his 'apartments' the other day, getting approvals alone almost made him crazy. We have transacted in land acquisition processes and we know how long it takes for a straight one percel goes, sembuse subdivsion. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Wakanyugi wrote:sparkly wrote:MugundaMan wrote:Mike Ock wrote:High end rentals are nowadays making zero sense in terms of time to break even. But most of the money in the high end wasn't really looking for a quick return anyway. Depends on what you mean by "break even"  I personally do not even look at rental yield as a factor in Kenya given the nature of cost structure in the industry. If you buy a 30m apartment for example and then hope to "break even" on the rents soon, you might be waiting decades. But what you lose in rental yields you gain in cap gains. This is why you are absolutely correct to say money in high end is not looking for a quick return (cash flows) and are very happy to wait 3, 5, 10 and even 20 years+ to make their real mint. Buildings depreciate and in 20 years the apartment is half way through its useful economic life. I think you are stretching this accounting fix to unreasonable levels. I bought a house in 1997 for 2M. According to you it should now be worth less than 1M. Yet recently I got it valued, on orders of a Bank, the best accountants there is. Value? 18M. Where has your depreciation gone? Have a look at the valuation report. It reads something like this: 1. The land is registered as Title xxxx located at yyyyy in use as zzzzz. 2. Tenure is freehold/leasehold with unexpired term of aaaaa. 3. Conditions of the buildings thereon is bbbbb. 4. Encumberances (if any) are ccccccc. 5. Our valuation for land is ddddd and buildings eeeeee. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Angelica _ann wrote:
I know you now always diverting issues. I stick to my issue of time-frame of acquisition and subdivision of such land into 'tu-plots' and getting buyers for all that i have highlighted that you have conveniently ignored.
Look who is talking What is it about your "issue" of time frame that you are having trouble with?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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sparkly wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:sparkly wrote:MugundaMan wrote:Mike Ock wrote:High end rentals are nowadays making zero sense in terms of time to break even. But most of the money in the high end wasn't really looking for a quick return anyway. Depends on what you mean by "break even" I personally do not even look at rental yield as a factor in Kenya given the nature of cost structure in the industry. If you buy a 30m apartment for example and then hope to "break even" on the rents soon, you might be waiting decades. But what you lose in rental yields you gain in cap gains. This is why you are absolutely correct to say money in high end is not looking for a quick return (cash flows) and are very happy to wait 3, 5, 10 and even 20 years+ to make their real mint. Buildings depreciate and in 20 years the apartment is half way through its useful economic life. I think you are stretching this accounting fix to unreasonable levels. I bought a house in 1997 for 2M. According to you it should now be worth less than 1M. Yet recently I got it valued, on orders of a Bank, the best accountants there is. Value? 18M. Where has your depreciation gone? Have a look at the valuation report. It reads something like this: 1. The land is registered as Title xxxx located at yyyyy in use as zzzzz. 2. Tenure is freehold/leasehold with unexpired term of aaaaa. 3. Conditions of the buildings thereon is bbbbb. 4. Encumberances (if any) are ccccccc. 5. Our valuation for land is ddddd and buildings eeeeee. Stop being a desktop accountant and live a life. Property movement schedule is better. Revaluations indicate the building is on steroids and is growing young like molleybdinum titinium steel alloys kama hile ya reli ya mkoloni. Kaa hapo na depreciation, if u still don't believe old is Go-old. 🦎🦎🦎 Valuation techniques Most popular are in order of highest preference 1. Quantum method 2. Replacement cost minus depreciation 3. Discounted cashflows etc ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Angelica _ann wrote:
VVS don't let yourself be bluffed by 'fake' facts. Things out there are not straight as they are portrayed to be and we know better.
Even when @obiero (just as an example) was constructing his 'apartments' the other day, getting approvals alone almost made him crazy.
We have transacted in land acquisition processes and we know how long it takes for a straight one percel goes, sembuse subdivsion.
Double A, I have come to believe that your problem is extreme laziness. Hata simple research huwezi mek. Instead of sticking to topic about the real estate bubble and returns maoni yako tu ni hopeless muchene, inane polojo and funny tu-tangents about dates, "time frames" and what Mugundaman ate for dinner last night. Bure ghabisa! http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=34042
https://www.a4architect....a-for-housing-purposes/
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... Chunga huyu mzee
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... Why should I risk my capital and sweat for others to enjoy? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MugundaMan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@mugunda wrote : "Which an average plot bila structure EASILY beats per annum. As I told you bro, 11% is crumbs in the R.E. Industry. Someone who buys one acre and subdivides into 7 parcels of 1/8ths can make a 200%+ return NET quite easily without breaking a sweat in a few MONTHS let alone a year. This is not rocket science or some theory in a book my broda this is FACT."
>>> You are a wholesaler/trader. Good for you.
Those buying 1/8ths from you aren't going to make much in capital gains in the near term.
What you are describing is a pyramid scheme of sorts.
I am not knocking your business model of buy wholesale and sell retail. Very sensible business. I see you are now shifting goalposts after we proved your arguments held no water. For the record I am NOT a wholesaler. I just gave you an example of how I have earned a 22% return on one plot I bought in January. What more do you want, my broda? Saying that 1/8ths don't appreciate in Kiinya is like saying the sun will not rise tomorrow. Ask anyone who has bought an 1/8th in Kenya since 1963 if it has appreciated or not year over year. OK. You are right. Good luck! VVS don't let yourself be bluffed by 'fake' facts. Things out there are not straight as they are portrayed to be and we know better. Even when @obiero (just as an example) was constructing his 'apartments' the other day, getting approvals alone almost made him crazy. We have transacted in land acquisition processes and we know how long it takes for a straight one percel goes, sembuse subdivsion. I just got tired. Wacha nilale. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/4/2018 Posts: 64 Location: Nairobi
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MugundaMan wrote:Kenyans are very funny! Does anyone remember Lukorito Jones (what a name by the way) and his doomsday articles many years ago about the "imminent" collapse of the R.E sector in Kenya.I will say it again for the umpteenth time. WAKE ME UP WHEN SOMEONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD MANAGES TO REPEAL THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND.Stalin tried in Russia, slaughtering 10 million people there trying to prove it and failed miserably.The Chinese tried it until 1978 until the genius Deng Xiao Ping got religion fast and baptised the capitalism he legalised as a "unique brand of socialism with special characteristics" . The Chinese have been as capitalistic as the rest of us ever since! When supply exceeds the whopping housing deficit in Kenya, come and tap me from my comfy bed where I will be slumbering and snoring away over this non-topic. A slightly empty mall or apartment somewhere tells us nothing. The housing sector is not monolithic, and a temporary oversuppply in high end mall or office space in one or two buildings does not mean the entire sector is under collapse! Unless of course you are a big fan of the reasoning of Lukorito Jones. You're typing faster than you're thinking MugundaMan.Relax.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/8/2018 Posts: 2,211 Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
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Kate_Mbarire wrote:MugundaMan wrote:Kenyans are very funny! Does anyone remember Lukorito Jones (what a name by the way) and his doomsday articles many years ago about the "imminent" collapse of the R.E sector in Kenya.I will say it again for the umpteenth time. WAKE ME UP WHEN SOMEONE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD MANAGES TO REPEAL THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND.Stalin tried in Russia, slaughtering 10 million people there trying to prove it and failed miserably.The Chinese tried it until 1978 until the genius Deng Xiao Ping got religion fast and baptised the capitalism he legalised as a "unique brand of socialism with special characteristics" . The Chinese have been as capitalistic as the rest of us ever since! When supply exceeds the whopping housing deficit in Kenya, come and tap me from my comfy bed where I will be slumbering and snoring away over this non-topic. A slightly empty mall or apartment somewhere tells us nothing. The housing sector is not monolithic, and a temporary oversuppply in high end mall or office space in one or two buildings does not mean the entire sector is under collapse! Unless of course you are a big fan of the reasoning of Lukorito Jones. You're typing faster than you're thinking MugundaMan.Relax. Kate_Mbaririe, But what makes you think I am not relaxed? I am VERY relaxed and enjoying this debate!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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VituVingiSana wrote:tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... Why should I risk my capital and sweat for others to enjoy? Because if you don't the people who have nothing will only have you to eat tomorrow. We need social programs to support the people at the bottom and everyone benefits from this.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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obiero wrote:tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... Chunga huyu mzee Moto ya kuotea mbali....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:tony stark wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Subsidies distort the market.
So @tonystark, if GoK is going to subsidize the "low-cost housing" then one can't beat GoK. It was like the imported maize.
New tech will benefit new housing and those with land (or an old building that can be torn down) will benefit.
I "own" real estate indirectly through some NSE investments but most are not in the primary business of real estate. @VVS I always took you for a Keynesian leaning Wazuan .... Why should I risk my capital and sweat for others to enjoy? Because if you don't the people who have nothing will only have you to eat tomorrow. We need social programs to support the people at the bottom and everyone benefits from this. It's a tough one but they have to do their part too. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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limanika wrote:I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum Have you gus gone through the document?How do I put the pdf here? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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maka wrote:limanika wrote:I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum Have you gus gone through the document?How do I put the pdf here? Send to wazuafishmonger@gmail.comIf Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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MugundaMan wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:
VVS don't let yourself be bluffed by 'fake' facts. Things out there are not straight as they are portrayed to be and we know better.
Even when @obiero (just as an example) was constructing his 'apartments' the other day, getting approvals alone almost made him crazy.
We have transacted in land acquisition processes and we know how long it takes for a straight one percel goes, sembuse subdivsion.
Double A, I have come to believe that your problem is extreme laziness. Hata simple research huwezi mek. Instead of sticking to topic about the real estate bubble and returns maoni yako tu ni hopeless muchene, inane polojo and funny tu-tangents about dates, "time frames" and what Mugundaman ate for dinner last night. Bure ghabisa! http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=34042
https://www.a4architect....a-for-housing-purposes/
Hapa nko na AA, If buying land for subdivision,the 6 months gain might be on paper only. Subdividing land for tu-plots in most cases means change of user name which involves,NEMA andcounty government etc.NEMA alone is a pain in the ads when it comes to change of user name. Min time frame is 3-5 months If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Swenani wrote:maka wrote:limanika wrote:I don't think this affordable housing program is well thought out. But what's more surprising is that nobody has evaluated to bare bones n critiqued this program in mainstream media. Even the opposition is clueless. If the general public has to benefit, let them ensure most if not all materials are sourced locally..even if the houses cost more, the subsidy should bridge the gap. That way you create more jobs in the economy, rather than letting contractors import everything cheaply in the name of reducing cost of the houses...and ship jobs abroad, end up shooting the same people who contributed to the subsidy. By the way, I believe the current plan could di more harm than good to the economy. But do we have anyone who thinks in govt? How come nobody has critiqued this housing program? It would be chance to come out shining for our opposition yet they just keep thinking referendum Have you gus gone through the document?How do I put the pdf here? Send to wazuafishmonger@gmail.com Sawa possunt quia posse videntur
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