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Madness at the NSE
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lochaz-index
#1471 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2018 10:25:02 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

NSE 20 closes the week at 2832, 42 points shy of the Jan 2017 low of 2790.Let's see whether this will be defended. Below this and the new support will be the March 2009 low of 2360Pray




Holding steady ATM but FED's decision to keep increasing its FED rate will keep emboldening the bears especially in Frontier and Emerging Economies.

The 2017 rally is about to be wiped out in its entirety - 100% retracement. FFR projection is one more hike in December and four more hikes in 2019. Not to take their word for it knowing how unreliable some of these forecasts turn out to be but the fundies ( 10yr UST is > than 3% and steadily climbing anchoring inflation expectations) point to a faster rate hike cycle.

If we discount two hikes and only factor one at year end, two more next year plus this week's hike that makes it 100bps jump by end of 2019...this never portends well for EM/FM. Holding everything else constant (no crises/contagion in relation to debt and China is still chugging along fine) my operative scenario is that those markets will broadly tank by about 15-20%. That would place NSE20 at around the GFC levels. If inflation in the US picks up faster than anticipated then all hell will break loose.

As the Fed and PBoC continue tightening, ECB risks being left in no man's land with its QE programme in the Eurozone. The markets will end up armtwisting the ECB in to a knee-jerk policy in an effort to fend off capital outflows.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero
#1472 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2018 10:31:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

NSE 20 closes the week at 2832, 42 points shy of the Jan 2017 low of 2790.Let's see whether this will be defended. Below this and the new support will be the March 2009 low of 2360Pray




Holding steady ATM but FED's decision to keep increasing its FED rate will keep emboldening the bears especially in Frontier and Emerging Economies.

The 2017 rally is about to be wiped out in its entirety - 100% retracement. FFR projection is one more hike in December and four more hikes in 2019. Not to take their word for it knowing how unreliable some of these forecasts turn out to be but the fundies ( 10yr UST is > than 3% and steadily climbing anchoring inflation expectations) point to a faster rate hike cycle.

If we discount two hikes and only factor one at year end, two more next year plus this week's hike that makes it 100bps jump by end of 2019...this never portends well for EM/FM. Holding everything else constant (no crises/contagion in relation to debt and China is still chugging along fine) my operative scenario is that those markets will broadly tank by about 15-20%. That would place NSE20 at around the GFC levels. If inflation in the US picks up faster than anticipated then all hell will break loose.

As the Fed and PBoC continue tightening, ECB risks being left in no man's land with its QE programme in the Eurozone. The markets will end up armtwisting the ECB in to a knee-jerk policy in an effort to fend off capital outflows.

Some shares aren't doing too bad.. Its not all doom and gloom

KQ ABP 4.26
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wukan
#1473 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2018 10:36:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,653
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

NSE 20 closes the week at 2832, 42 points shy of the Jan 2017 low of 2790.Let's see whether this will be defended. Below this and the new support will be the March 2009 low of 2360Pray




Holding steady ATM but FED's decision to keep increasing its FED rate will keep emboldening the bears especially in Frontier and Emerging Economies.

The 2017 rally is about to be wiped out in its entirety - 100% retracement. FFR projection is one more hike in December and four more hikes in 2019. Not to take their word for it knowing how unreliable some of these forecasts turn out to be but the fundies ( 10yr UST is > than 3% and steadily climbing anchoring inflation expectations) point to a faster rate hike cycle.

If we discount two hikes and only factor one at year end, two more next year plus this week's hike that makes it 100bps jump by end of 2019...this never portends well for EM/FM. Holding everything else constant (no crises/contagion in relation to debt and China is still chugging along fine) my operative scenario is that those markets will broadly tank by about 15-20%. That would place NSE20 at around the GFC levels. If inflation in the US picks up faster than anticipated then all hell will break loose.

As the Fed and PBoC continue tightening, ECB risks being left in no man's land with its QE programme in the Eurozone. The markets will end up armtwisting the ECB in to a knee-jerk policy in an effort to fend off capital outflows.


Plus the Fed balance sheet reduction peak in October at US 50B. ECB will most likely tighten around July 2019. 2019 will be a nightmare for EMs
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Ericsson
#1474 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2018 4:23:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

NSE 20 closes the week at 2832, 42 points shy of the Jan 2017 low of 2790.Let's see whether this will be defended. Below this and the new support will be the March 2009 low of 2360Pray




Holding steady ATM but FED's decision to keep increasing its FED rate will keep emboldening the bears especially in Frontier and Emerging Economies.

The 2017 rally is about to be wiped out in its entirety - 100% retracement. FFR projection is one more hike in December and four more hikes in 2019. Not to take their word for it knowing how unreliable some of these forecasts turn out to be but the fundies ( 10yr UST is > than 3% and steadily climbing anchoring inflation expectations) point to a faster rate hike cycle.

If we discount two hikes and only factor one at year end, two more next year plus this week's hike that makes it 100bps jump by end of 2019...this never portends well for EM/FM. Holding everything else constant (no crises/contagion in relation to debt and China is still chugging along fine) my operative scenario is that those markets will broadly tank by about 15-20%. That would place NSE20 at around the GFC levels. If inflation in the US picks up faster than anticipated then all hell will break loose.

As the Fed and PBoC continue tightening, ECB risks being left in no man's land with its QE programme in the Eurozone. The markets will end up armtwisting the ECB in to a knee-jerk policy in an effort to fend off capital outflows.


Plus the Fed balance sheet reduction peak in October at US 50B. ECB will most likely tighten around July 2019. 2019 will be a nightmare for EMs


The temporary run is coming to an end,from tomorrow/Monday expect some price declines on counters that have had a good run
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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obiero
#1475 Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2018 8:27:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

NSE 20 closes the week at 2832, 42 points shy of the Jan 2017 low of 2790.Let's see whether this will be defended. Below this and the new support will be the March 2009 low of 2360Pray




Holding steady ATM but FED's decision to keep increasing its FED rate will keep emboldening the bears especially in Frontier and Emerging Economies.

The 2017 rally is about to be wiped out in its entirety - 100% retracement. FFR projection is one more hike in December and four more hikes in 2019. Not to take their word for it knowing how unreliable some of these forecasts turn out to be but the fundies ( 10yr UST is > than 3% and steadily climbing anchoring inflation expectations) point to a faster rate hike cycle.

If we discount two hikes and only factor one at year end, two more next year plus this week's hike that makes it 100bps jump by end of 2019...this never portends well for EM/FM. Holding everything else constant (no crises/contagion in relation to debt and China is still chugging along fine) my operative scenario is that those markets will broadly tank by about 15-20%. That would place NSE20 at around the GFC levels. If inflation in the US picks up faster than anticipated then all hell will break loose.

As the Fed and PBoC continue tightening, ECB risks being left in no man's land with its QE programme in the Eurozone. The markets will end up armtwisting the ECB in to a knee-jerk policy in an effort to fend off capital outflows.


Plus the Fed balance sheet reduction peak in October at US 50B. ECB will most likely tighten around July 2019. 2019 will be a nightmare for EMs


The temporary run is coming to an end,from tomorrow/Monday expect some price declines on counters that have had a good run

On Q3 book closure for financials.. You honestly expect a decline?? Anyways.. Selling COOP at KES 16.50, cool 21% gain over 9 days

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, September 27, 2018 8:30 PM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#1476 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2018 10:05:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Deacons becomes the first counter to go below 0.50 per share.
A loss of the maximum 5 cents is more than the 10% rule.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#1477 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2018 10:23:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
If it closes at 0.45 (VWAP), what happens the next day on the way down? Can someone bid at 0.40 given that's 11%?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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tandich
#1478 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2018 10:24:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 199
If it closes below 0.45 it's technically fixed at that price unless a material event occurs; in which case I'm curious how low it could go

Ericsson wrote:
Deacons becomes the first counter to go below 0.50 per share.
A loss of the maximum 5 cents is more than the 10% rule.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, September 28, 2018 10:26 AM | Reason: Grammar
VituVingiSana
#1479 Posted : Friday, September 28, 2018 10:26:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
tandich wrote:
If it closes below 0.45 it's technically suspended from trading unless a material event occurs; in which case I'm curious how low it could go

Ericsson wrote:
Deacons becomes the first counter to go below 0.50 per share.
A loss of the maximum 5 cents is more than the 10% rule.

It's likely to close at 0.45 today given the level of trades.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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rwitre
#1480 Posted : Saturday, September 29, 2018 1:43:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/8/2018
Posts: 507
Location: Nairobi


Looks like the downtrend will continue next week.

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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, September 29, 2018 1:51 PM | Reason: Not specified
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