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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,941
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote:Liv wrote:wukan wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:
1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.
2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.
3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.
4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.
5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.
I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.
A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?
B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?
C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.
A. Based on the level of desperation shown by Treasury to pass the new law...you get that nakumatt feeling. The market is pretty good at smelling desperation. The sharks will start gathering same way they did in Turkey and Argentina. We told IMF to f*** off with their insurance cover. B. @lochaz-index has previously posted that the interest rate cap operates like a currency peg. It's deflationary at at time when KE has piled up debt. It's also helping our current account by slowing down consumption of imports. It's almost like we are artificially propping KES. When the peg can't be defended because of reduced forex reserves then  for KES. You might see KES beyond 120. C. In 2002 it was "yote yawezekana" so let's just watch the unfolding events.
A). Desperation? What desperation.... the government lowered vat on petrol products from 16 to 8%. They cut the budget by sh 55 billion. Where did you read desperation?... Can you explain what will the sharks you are talking about do to the economy or are likely to do? Added +8% from 0. My question is why was it 0 rated in the first place? I dont see Kenyans changing their driving, travelling habits because of this....they will lament and get used to it
B). The KES is not strong today because it's being defended using Forex reserves. It's strong because of the deflationary state of the economy. I asked....how will KES weaken in the current state of deflation? And at what point will the Peg you mentioned become indefensible?
C). I didn't get your point how the new law will eventually lead to political chaos in Kenya. Please elaborate. I concur....that will not happen. Monday comes and we go on with life as if nothing ever happened.
All in all......Uhuru should clean up treasury. There are fiscal management and debt issues that need to be tightened and that cannot happen without a shift in mentality. Njiraini needs to go. KRA is still a corruption den... @Liv the government didn't lower VAT on petrol from 16 to 8 but introduced VAT on petrol at 8%.
You are right sweetheart.... but does that sound like the government acted desperately as someone would want us to believe here? Angelica could be a man na unamuita sweetie.. You're a nosy meddler. You could be interfering with other people's lifestyles...  @Obiero, surely. no words for you  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,440 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote:Liv wrote:wukan wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:
1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.
2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.
3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.
4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.
5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.
I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.
A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?
B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?
C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.
A. Based on the level of desperation shown by Treasury to pass the new law...you get that nakumatt feeling. The market is pretty good at smelling desperation. The sharks will start gathering same way they did in Turkey and Argentina. We told IMF to f*** off with their insurance cover. B. @lochaz-index has previously posted that the interest rate cap operates like a currency peg. It's deflationary at at time when KE has piled up debt. It's also helping our current account by slowing down consumption of imports. It's almost like we are artificially propping KES. When the peg can't be defended because of reduced forex reserves then for KES. You might see KES beyond 120. C. In 2002 it was "yote yawezekana" so let's just watch the unfolding events.
A). Desperation? What desperation.... the government lowered vat on petrol products from 16 to 8%. They cut the budget by sh 55 billion. Where did you read desperation?... Can you explain what will the sharks you are talking about do to the economy or are likely to do? Added +8% from 0. My question is why was it 0 rated in the first place? I dont see Kenyans changing their driving, travelling habits because of this....they will lament and get used to it
B). The KES is not strong today because it's being defended using Forex reserves. It's strong because of the deflationary state of the economy. I asked....how will KES weaken in the current state of deflation? And at what point will the Peg you mentioned become indefensible?
C). I didn't get your point how the new law will eventually lead to political chaos in Kenya. Please elaborate. I concur....that will not happen. Monday comes and we go on with life as if nothing ever happened.
All in all......Uhuru should clean up treasury. There are fiscal management and debt issues that need to be tightened and that cannot happen without a shift in mentality. Njiraini needs to go. KRA is still a corruption den... @Liv the government didn't lower VAT on petrol from 16 to 8 but introduced VAT on petrol at 8%.
You are right sweetheart.... but does that sound like the government acted desperately as someone would want us to believe here? Angelica could be a man na unamuita sweetie.. You're a nosy meddler. You could be interfering with other people's lifestyles... @Obiero, surely. no words for you Woi.. I didn't mean any harm sweetie COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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Some green before the next leg down? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote:Liv wrote:wukan wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:
1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.
2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.
3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.
4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.
5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.
I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.
A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?
B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?
C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.
A. Based on the level of desperation shown by Treasury to pass the new law...you get that nakumatt feeling. The market is pretty good at smelling desperation. The sharks will start gathering same way they did in Turkey and Argentina. We told IMF to f*** off with their insurance cover. B. @lochaz-index has previously posted that the interest rate cap operates like a currency peg. It's deflationary at at time when KE has piled up debt. It's also helping our current account by slowing down consumption of imports. It's almost like we are artificially propping KES. When the peg can't be defended because of reduced forex reserves then for KES. You might see KES beyond 120. C. In 2002 it was "yote yawezekana" so let's just watch the unfolding events.
A). Desperation? What desperation.... the government lowered vat on petrol products from 16 to 8%. They cut the budget by sh 55 billion. Where did you read desperation?... Can you explain what will the sharks you are talking about do to the economy or are likely to do? Added +8% from 0. My question is why was it 0 rated in the first place? I dont see Kenyans changing their driving, travelling habits because of this....they will lament and get used to it
B). The KES is not strong today because it's being defended using Forex reserves. It's strong because of the deflationary state of the economy. I asked....how will KES weaken in the current state of deflation? And at what point will the Peg you mentioned become indefensible?
C). I didn't get your point how the new law will eventually lead to political chaos in Kenya. Please elaborate. I concur....that will not happen. Monday comes and we go on with life as if nothing ever happened.
All in all......Uhuru should clean up treasury. There are fiscal management and debt issues that need to be tightened and that cannot happen without a shift in mentality. Njiraini needs to go. KRA is still a corruption den... @Liv the government didn't lower VAT on petrol from 16 to 8 but introduced VAT on petrol at 8%.
You are right sweetheart.... but does that sound like the government acted desperately as someone would want us to believe here? Angelica could be a man na unamuita sweetie.. You're a nosy meddler. You could be interfering with other people's lifestyles... @Obiero, surely. no words for you Woi.. I didn't mean any harm sweetie @Angelica is our sweetie ata kama ni mwanaume. Mbona mwanaume asiitwe sweetie ? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Only 8% of the world's currency exists as physical cash. The rest exists only in electronic accounts worldwide tweet linkWhat happens when banks collapse? Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,440 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote:Liv wrote:wukan wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Just had a quick look at the finance bill (now law), the implications of the taxes will be devastating:
1. Money velocity is about to go to the dogs. Deflation in earnest really and it won't be kind to any asset class including the NSE.
2. Looks like KE won't be dodging a debt/fiscal crisis.
3. KES devaluation is now almost a certainty, the only question is when.
4. Political and civil upheaval is expected coz the only language treasury understands is increasing taxes. The other half of the 8% VAT will be imposed at the very latest in the 2019/20 budget.
5. Capital gains tax especially on real estate will be increased substantially.
I agree with your conclusion point 1 above based on the new law.
A). How do you come to the other 4 points in your conclusion based on the new law?
B) How does KES devaluation become a certainty in an environment of deflation?
C) conclusion point 4 is just wishful thinking in my view.... It will not happen in Kenya as we are so divided by tribe and we follow our tribal leaders.
A. Based on the level of desperation shown by Treasury to pass the new law...you get that nakumatt feeling. The market is pretty good at smelling desperation. The sharks will start gathering same way they did in Turkey and Argentina. We told IMF to f*** off with their insurance cover. B. @lochaz-index has previously posted that the interest rate cap operates like a currency peg. It's deflationary at at time when KE has piled up debt. It's also helping our current account by slowing down consumption of imports. It's almost like we are artificially propping KES. When the peg can't be defended because of reduced forex reserves then for KES. You might see KES beyond 120. C. In 2002 it was "yote yawezekana" so let's just watch the unfolding events.
A). Desperation? What desperation.... the government lowered vat on petrol products from 16 to 8%. They cut the budget by sh 55 billion. Where did you read desperation?... Can you explain what will the sharks you are talking about do to the economy or are likely to do? Added +8% from 0. My question is why was it 0 rated in the first place? I dont see Kenyans changing their driving, travelling habits because of this....they will lament and get used to it
B). The KES is not strong today because it's being defended using Forex reserves. It's strong because of the deflationary state of the economy. I asked....how will KES weaken in the current state of deflation? And at what point will the Peg you mentioned become indefensible?
C). I didn't get your point how the new law will eventually lead to political chaos in Kenya. Please elaborate. I concur....that will not happen. Monday comes and we go on with life as if nothing ever happened.
All in all......Uhuru should clean up treasury. There are fiscal management and debt issues that need to be tightened and that cannot happen without a shift in mentality. Njiraini needs to go. KRA is still a corruption den... @Liv the government didn't lower VAT on petrol from 16 to 8 but introduced VAT on petrol at 8%.
You are right sweetheart.... but does that sound like the government acted desperately as someone would want us to believe here? Angelica could be a man na unamuita sweetie.. You're a nosy meddler. You could be interfering with other people's lifestyles... @Obiero, surely. no words for you Woi.. I didn't mean any harm sweetie @Angelica is our sweetie ata kama ni mwanaume. Mbona mwanaume asiitwe sweetie ? Ntakutandika makofi 🤣 COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote: I expect Safcom to continue dropping in circle wave ((iv)) and find support at about 25.00. Thereafter it should rise in wave circled wave ((v)) to above 33.00. 25.00 level reached today 20th September. I expect a bounce to above 33.00 level to complete circled wave ((v)). If the drop continues any further down below 25.00 then it should not touch 21.70 (being the circled wave (((i))) high). NB: Elliott's rule states that a fourth wave should not overlap the wave one. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Safcom continues to fall and is now threatening 21.60, being the top of wave ((i)) circled. Looking at the chart keenly I realize that safcom likely completed wave 5 at 33.54. This implies that the current fall has further to go and will likely find support at 21.69 or about 16.20. I once warned people to be careful with Safcom. Many will burn their fingers with this counter. Forget about the financial position of the company. That does not determine its share price. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,834 Location: NAIROBI
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mnandii wrote:Safcom continues to fall and is now threatening 21.60, being the top of wave ((i)) circled. Looking at the chart keenly I realize that safcom likely completed wave 5 at 33.54. This implies that the current fall has further to go and will likely find support at 21.69 or about 16.20. I once warned people to be careful with Safcom. Many will burn their fingers with this counter. Forget about the financial position of the company. That does not determine its share price. Let it come to 16.20 i buy more Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,421 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:mnandii wrote:Safcom continues to fall and is now threatening 21.60, being the top of wave ((i)) circled. Looking at the chart keenly I realize that safcom likely completed wave 5 at 33.54. This implies that the current fall has further to go and will likely find support at 21.69 or about 16.20. I once warned people to be careful with Safcom. Many will burn their fingers with this counter. Forget about the financial position of the company. That does not determine its share price. Let it come to 16.20 i buy more Now that's an attractive entry point. In my case, to add more. Despite the competition, I find the "pie" can grow much larger for all the players. I continue using Faiba4G for data but Safcom still gets my money for other uses. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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