Long post coming up. The ADHD folks should skip this.
If you are going to use the comments below then don't cut and paste a portion but provide the entire post to give context. This was posted on 10th September 2018.
I hold Centum as a Tier 2 investment but if I had the cash I would load up at sub-30 given what info is available. If the information changes i.e. scams, economy goes down the crapper, etc then I will bail out even at a loss. I learnt my lesson in KQ.
Losses will happen. Not all investments make money. Warren Buffett - who is a genius - got burnt on IBM, Tesco, GenRe, Dexter, etc.
Centum has a few investments that might not make for a decent ROI including Sidian Bank, Akira, Amu, etc.
It has also has some investments that are cash cows (today) e.g. Coca-Cola.
Some will take longer to mature given today's environment including Pearl Marina and Vipingo.
Overall, Centum has a good portfolio of assets and should do well if managed conservatively. Centum should not take on debt unless it is for a potential 5-bagger without huge downside risk.
One has to watch, observe and read the environment. The current political and economic environment is awful but those who can survive it might come out stronger.
Investing in Kenyan firms is not for the faint-hearted. Sometimes, it is tempting to sell off everything and buy T-Bonds!
@Horton - Yes, I hold Centum and no regrets except not buying them cheaper but I don't know how to time markets. I don't "trade" so it makes little difference to me in the long-term. I am a Warren Buffett fan and as long as one follows his principles, one does OK.
He advised one should limit their investments so I reduced my universe of investments to a maximum of 12 with max 5 core (70-80% of the value) investments.
All my core investments have paid a dividend since 2015, have (IMHO) good management (which I monitor as best as I can) and decent fundamentals (NAV, PER, ROE, etc). I try to attend all the meetings, read various reports from brokers, use their products, etc.
Then I have Tier 2 investments which may grow into "Core" but my exposure to each is limited to 5% of the portfolio. Centum, Equity, TPSEA.
Tier 3 including ARM which is less than 1%. I can easily NPL these off.
I am not as concerned with price unless I want to enter/ buy or exit/sell as much as ROI.
Dividends don't matter as much either but the ROI does i.e. the sustainable PAT and Net Assets should be growing. The PAT growth need not be linear either. As WB says: A 15% zigzagging growth is better than a linear 12% growth.
Management (or the trust in Management) is very important which is why I avoid most of the firms on the NSE e.g. Kurwitu, KPLC, NBK, etc. No GoK firms except for KenRe which gave me some heartburn recently.
Debt can be problematic if not used well and I avoid overly indebted firms e.g. HAFR. I recently bought heavily indebted ARM given that CDC was going to step in and I expected a Debt to Equity conversion.
Price is important even for well-managed firms so I (sadly) don't have Jubilee, Safcom or BAT. If the prices were to drop for some reason that did not affect their operations, debt levels and they remain well-managed then I would jump in.
Good luck!