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Kenya's population growth
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,721
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Mimi sioni shida. There is no problem in Kenya. We will develop or fail to develop and progress at our own pace and it is OK either way. You cannot have change without changing the people.
People forget that the most obsessed countries with "maendeleo" were the countries of the former USSR. I doubt there is any one leader in the world who achieved more "maendeleo" than Joseph Stalin during his 24 year rule. Cities would be built from scratch in the most inhospitable places, whole populations relocated thousands of miles away and millions killed. Go ask Russians whether they were happy and celebrating because of the "maendeleo". Right now Stalin has become more popular in Russia because most of those he traumatized have died and the young people can enjoy the maendeleo. I have no desire to be praised by anyone 60 years from now. I have adapted to kwenda na matatu, kukwama kwa jam, kuruka mitaro ya sewage, kuoga na basin, kutumia choo ya nje etc. I am not suffering by living this way so why should I be compelled to suffer real hardship of relocation or forced labor so that some future generation can have more conveniences?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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radiomast wrote:Thitifini wrote:
Urban migration should not be a bad thing. This can free up productive land for bigger and more profitable farms.
Then mechanization of agriculture to increase efficiency and make our products competitive (we stop cultivating 1acre things with njembes).
Then the urban migration could be used for processing the products and in the longer term as industrial workforce.
These are just pipe dreams. There aren't enough jobs for people to go to in the cities and towns. And farm sizes wont increase even if people leave the villages. Kenyans are so obsessed with owning land that even if someone owns a small plot, he will not sell it "Urban" can be created anywhere. The problem we have is we think it has to be in one or 2 shitholes "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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2012 wrote:Is it just me or is Kenya's population growing too fast? Just a few years ago, we were 20m. Now I hear we are 51m??
Is this a good or bad thing? It's just you!! Total fertility rate is 3.7 latest Kenya demographic survey. Highest Total fertility rate was 8 in the 70s. The growth will continue to happen because of the huge base but the growth has reduced massively. Total fertility rate in places like Kirinyaga is as low as 2.5 and this is the fertility rate in well managed developed countries.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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He has a point in ujinga. Having many children is hard work. The days of having child labor to farm shambas is long gone. The people who want many children are few and Magufuli and his catholic brain washing should not force his ujinga on others. His stupidity will set TZ back the same way Nyerere set them back! Idiotism is rife in Tanzania!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/5/2011 Posts: 1,059
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tycho wrote:When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy. I like your point about thinking that being developed is being like the US r Singapore, we cab create our own development that suits our culture and environment, a quick example, the street lights we do them like developed countries with control boxes at low reach they get vandalized, my solution would be to place them higher away from opportunistic thieves . To Each His Own
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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kayhara wrote:tycho wrote:When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy. I like your point about thinking that being developed is being like the US r Singapore, we cab create our own development that suits our culture and environment, a quick example, the street lights we do them like developed countries with control boxes at low reach they get vandalized, my solution would be to place them higher away from opportunistic thieves . Go to Mlolongo and see the height of those lights....none has bulbs. The people who take them off are well known but as Kenyans its a taboo to report offenders to the police. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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tony stark wrote:2012 wrote:Is it just me or is Kenya's population growing too fast? Just a few years ago, we were 20m. Now I hear we are 51m??
Is this a good or bad thing? It's just you!! Total fertility rate is 3.7 latest Kenya demographic survey. Highest Total fertility rate was 8 in the 70s. The growth will continue to happen because of the huge base but the growth has reduced massively. Total fertility rate in places like Kirinyaga is as low as 2.5 and this is the fertility rate in well managed developed countries. Do not be too excited and happy about fertility rate lower than 2.5 as being developed. I quoted below in October 07, 2009 hereQuote:Look at it differently. I read a report on the world's changing demographics: - According to research,in order for a culture to maintain itself for more than 25 years,there must be fertility rate of 2.11 children required per family - With anything else,the culture will decline - Historically,no culture has ever reversed a 1.9 fertility rate - A rate of 1.3,impossible to reverse because it would take 80-100 years to correct itself and there is no economic model to support it - In other words if two sets of parent each have one child. - If those children have one child,then there is 1/4 as many grandchildren as grandparents - If 1 million children born now,it's hard to have 2 million adults in the workforce in 26 years time - As population shrinks,so is the culture - Fertility rate across the entire Europe is mere 1.38! - Historically,these numbers are impossible to reverse
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2018 Posts: 428
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Due to natural population growth and continued rural urban migration, the population of Nairobi will soon reach 10 million. If you think traffic and water shortages are bad now, you just wait.
On useful proposal I have seen is that gava should take aggressive measures to relocate people upcountry. All Ministry headquarters and all parastatal operations should be gradually shifted to other towns. Army HQ, Airforce, Police etc. should be shifted gradually Why must every HQ be in Nairobi?
Gava should order parastatals to stop hiring in Nairobi and only offer new jobs up country. Just select 3 or 4 towns to focus transfer of jobs and create new population centres. I would pick something like Yatta or Narok
And ban people from buying land in these towns. Land speculation should be brought under control or banned. Henceforth if a person buys land in a town or close to a town, they should be charged property taxes as is done in Europe and North America. If the land is left idle, the property taxes should be double. Ridiculous levels Land speculation is a hindrance to development.
Finally offer private corporations heavy tax breaks to shift their operations away from Nrb. Tell EABL for example that if they re-open their plant in Kisumu and shift 1000 jobs there, they will get a 10 year tax break. Incentize Kericho tea packers etc to move their HQ to Eldoret or elsewhere. Revive Mumias Sugar on condition that their operations are in Bungoma or Kach or gasp !Mumias !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,721
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Kusadikika wrote:Mimi sioni shida. There is no problem in Kenya. We will develop or fail to develop and progress at our own pace and it is OK either way. You cannot have change without changing the people.
People forget that the most obsessed countries with "maendeleo" were the countries of the former USSR. I doubt there is any one leader in the world who achieved more "maendeleo" than Joseph Stalin during his 30 year rule. Cities would be built from scratch in the most inhospitable places, whole populations relocated thousands of miles away and millions killed. Go ask Russians whether they were happy and celebrating because of the "maendeleo". Right now Stalin has become more popular in Russia because most of those he traumatized have died and the young people can enjoy the maendeleo. I have no desire to be praised by anyone 60 years from now. I have adapted to kwenda na matatu, kukwama kwa jam, kuruka mitaro ya sewage, kuoga na basin, kutumia choo ya nje etc. I am not suffering by living this way so why should I be compelled to suffer real hardship of relocation or forced labor so that some future generation can have more conveniences?
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