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Kenya's population growth
Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2007 Posts: 1,162
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Kenya is underpopulated. Population figures are always inflated for political reasons - to grab the cake at the centre
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/27/2014 Posts: 560 Location: Eastlando
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masukuma wrote:Fullykenyan wrote:2012 wrote:Is it just me or is Kenya's population growing too fast? Just a few years ago, we were 20m. Now I hear we are 51m??
Is this a good or bad thing? It is a bad thing. You cannot have population explosion yet there are no jobs. what creates "jobs"? I have always thought a young "educated" population is a boon as opposed to a curse. it's a demographic dividend if they are educated and the country is a bit open. it's a ticking time bomb if they are illiterate thug in a society one cannot progress unless they know people. You have to first invest in them before they become productive. A young population is only good if we have equally an old population, where the young can work for the retirement benefits of the old instead of the state dipping its fingers again in the national kitty. A young population with no skills, no jobs, no education is a burden unto the national government
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,547 Location: nairobi
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masukuma wrote:obiero wrote:masukuma wrote:mimi naona watu wakiongea tu... I think it really doesn't matter - people will go where they think 'inabakisha'... counties will only have people staying there or going back there if and only if staying there will 'bakisha' kitu in the pockets. I read that china actually made moves to deliberately move people from mashinani to the coastal sides for work instead of 'spreading' the development across the country. wakulima walime but everyone else aende mjini... this helped everyone including the mashambani people and juzi juzi they realized that mashambani life became better and some people would go back to shags over their new year and never came back so they started luring them with goodies to make them come back to the cities. What we need is to focus on 2-3 big cities - preferably 2 at the coast + Nairobi - kwisha maneno. Spreading development across the country is a foolish exercise - it's easier to move people than to move development. plus let's face it - not all counties in our country are productive... they can be but not at this stage - we need quick wins not wait until we can get Marsabit to rock and roll. But of course... ninaongea tu! Devolution can give Kenya what has happened in South Africa, USA, France.. It's possible to have multiple thriving cities in one country Pretoria, Cape Town, Joburg, Paris, Lyon, Nice, New York, Texas, California, LA, Florida, DC etc Are those products of devolution (a plan by design to send funds from a central place to the peripherals) or products of self sufficiency? is Joburg a product of the gold mining happening there or is it a devolution product i.e. was Jozi there before they discovered gold or was it a city that was looking for a reason to exist and managed to find the reason (gold)? what about the rest? We have elephants in Samburu, coal in Lamu, fisheries in Homabay, titanium in Kwale, solar/oil in Turkana, mangoes in Tana River.. Most of the counties have ability to self sustain
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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I agree with @mavegs. Drastic moves must be made to steer development in right direction.
China smart ones which include: if you are a doctor you get ID stating "DOCTOR". If you are farmer your ID says "FARMER" and you get funds and land to farm and produce with no idle land possession. If you are an engineer your ID says "ENGINEER" etc etc.. No one is "NOBODY" and you eliminate idleness!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Quote:Tanzania's President John Magufuli has urged women to stop taking birth control pills, saying the country needs more people.
Mr Magufuli made his comments at a rally on Sunday in the northern Meatu district, saying people who use family planning methods were lazy, the local Citizen newspaper quoted him as saying.
"They do not want to work hard to feed a large family. And that is why they opt for births controls and end up with one or two children only," he said.
HEALTH COVER
"I have travelled to Europe and elsewhere and have seen the harmful effects of birth control. Some countries are now facing declining population growth."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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masukuma wrote:mimi naona watu wakiongea tu... I think it really doesn't matter - people will go where they think 'inabakisha'... counties will only have people staying there or going back there if and only if staying there will 'bakisha' kitu in the pockets. I read that china actually made moves to deliberately move people from mashinani to the coastal sides for work instead of 'spreading' the development across the country. wakulima walime but everyone else aende mjini... this helped everyone including the mashambani people and juzi juzi they realized that mashambani life became better and some people would go back to shags over their new year and never came back so they started luring them with goodies to make them come back to the cities. What we need is to focus on 2-3 big cities - preferably 2 at the coast + Nairobi - kwisha maneno. Spreading development across the country is a foolish exercise - it's easier to move people than to move development. plus let's face it - not all counties in our country are productive... they can be but not at this stage - we need quick wins not wait until we can get Marsabit to rock and roll. But of course... ninaongea tu! This is the most uninformed post ever from mavegges. Every county should have it's city, close to or greater than Nairobi not in congestion or filth but in wealth generation. A city doesn't have to be expansive but sustainable. Serving the people who live in it adequately. Lodwar has the potential to be bigger than Nairobi in the coming years. Lamu also has that potential to be bigger than Mombasa "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:masukuma wrote:obiero wrote:masukuma wrote:mimi naona watu wakiongea tu... I think it really doesn't matter - people will go where they think 'inabakisha'... counties will only have people staying there or going back there if and only if staying there will 'bakisha' kitu in the pockets. I read that china actually made moves to deliberately move people from mashinani to the coastal sides for work instead of 'spreading' the development across the country. wakulima walime but everyone else aende mjini... this helped everyone including the mashambani people and juzi juzi they realized that mashambani life became better and some people would go back to shags over their new year and never came back so they started luring them with goodies to make them come back to the cities. What we need is to focus on 2-3 big cities - preferably 2 at the coast + Nairobi - kwisha maneno. Spreading development across the country is a foolish exercise - it's easier to move people than to move development. plus let's face it - not all counties in our country are productive... they can be but not at this stage - we need quick wins not wait until we can get Marsabit to rock and roll. But of course... ninaongea tu! Devolution can give Kenya what has happened in South Africa, USA, France.. It's possible to have multiple thriving cities in one country Pretoria, Cape Town, Joburg, Paris, Lyon, Nice, New York, Texas, California, LA, Florida, DC etc Are those products of devolution (a plan by design to send funds from a central place to the peripherals) or products of self sufficiency? is Joburg a product of the gold mining happening there or is it a devolution product i.e. was Jozi there before they discovered gold or was it a city that was looking for a reason to exist and managed to find the reason (gold)? what about the rest? We have elephants in Samburu, coal in Lamu, fisheries in Homabay, titanium in Kwale, solar/oil in Turkana, mangoes in Tana River.. Most of the counties have ability to self sustain From what I have observed - Commercial interests knock down doors if it is worth their while. They go to the Thick Liberian bush, The thick tropical rain forests of new guinea, the cold alaskan deserts, they enslave children in congo to harvest coltan - they go ANYWHERE and do ANYTHING! When they wanted soda ash... they built a f**king private town , a railway and a road to what is Magadi. They even start proxy wars. That's how driven they are... so you are telling me that we have "stuff" underground that is worth the commercial interests of the big industrial nations of the world and the only chinese we see around us are selling us motobikes while insulting us? All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2015 Posts: 681 Location: Kenya
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What about a mixed model; depopulating the farmlands while concentrating the populance in small planned and sustainable urban centers. Saw this in Cambodia, they concentrate the people in small villages and no one is allowed to live on the farms. The large collective farms of the communists were subdivided to min 10 acre blocks for individuals. The individual live in collective villages and travel to their farms when needed. I saw they are almost catching up with us after just 2 decades of reforms, mind you they were worse than Somalia. By the way they mechanized agriculture by disshing out the tu-small tractors with two wheels. That became an industry in it self. And there is nothing the kathing cannot do - even taking the family to church!
60% Learning, 30% synthesizing, 10% Debating
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2018 Posts: 428
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Thitifini wrote:
Urban migration should not be a bad thing. This can free up productive land for bigger and more profitable farms.
Then mechanization of agriculture to increase efficiency and make our products competitive (we stop cultivating 1acre things with njembes).
Then the urban migration could be used for processing the products and in the longer term as industrial workforce.
These are just pipe dreams. There aren't enough jobs for people to go to in the cities and towns. And farm sizes wont increase even if people leave the villages. Kenyans are so obsessed with owning land that even if someone owns a small plot, he will not sell it
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Read somewhere of Uganda's population carrying capacity being almost twice that of Kenya. Population today stands at 35m and babies are still popping out all over............yet the rural countryside appears less populated. TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,703
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Mimi sioni shida. There is no problem in Kenya. We will develop or fail to develop and progress at our own pace and it is OK either way. You cannot have change without changing the people.
People forget that the most obsessed countries with "maendeleo" were the countries of the former USSR. I doubt there is any one leader in the world who achieved more "maendeleo" than Joseph Stalin during his 24 year rule. Cities would be built from scratch in the most inhospitable places, whole populations relocated thousands of miles away and millions killed. Go ask Russians whether they were happy and celebrating because of the "maendeleo". Right now Stalin has become more popular in Russia because most of those he traumatized have died and the young people can enjoy the maendeleo. I have no desire to be praised by anyone 60 years from now. I have adapted to kwenda na matatu, kukwama kwa jam, kuruka mitaro ya sewage, kuoga na basin, kutumia choo ya nje etc. I am not suffering by living this way so why should I be compelled to suffer real hardship of relocation or forced labor so that some future generation can have more conveniences?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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radiomast wrote:Thitifini wrote:
Urban migration should not be a bad thing. This can free up productive land for bigger and more profitable farms.
Then mechanization of agriculture to increase efficiency and make our products competitive (we stop cultivating 1acre things with njembes).
Then the urban migration could be used for processing the products and in the longer term as industrial workforce.
These are just pipe dreams. There aren't enough jobs for people to go to in the cities and towns. And farm sizes wont increase even if people leave the villages. Kenyans are so obsessed with owning land that even if someone owns a small plot, he will not sell it "Urban" can be created anywhere. The problem we have is we think it has to be in one or 2 shitholes "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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2012 wrote:Is it just me or is Kenya's population growing too fast? Just a few years ago, we were 20m. Now I hear we are 51m??
Is this a good or bad thing? It's just you!! Total fertility rate is 3.7 latest Kenya demographic survey. Highest Total fertility rate was 8 in the 70s. The growth will continue to happen because of the huge base but the growth has reduced massively. Total fertility rate in places like Kirinyaga is as low as 2.5 and this is the fertility rate in well managed developed countries.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/8/2008 Posts: 947
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He has a point in ujinga. Having many children is hard work. The days of having child labor to farm shambas is long gone. The people who want many children are few and Magufuli and his catholic brain washing should not force his ujinga on others. His stupidity will set TZ back the same way Nyerere set them back! Idiotism is rife in Tanzania!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/5/2011 Posts: 1,059
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tycho wrote:When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy. I like your point about thinking that being developed is being like the US r Singapore, we cab create our own development that suits our culture and environment, a quick example, the street lights we do them like developed countries with control boxes at low reach they get vandalized, my solution would be to place them higher away from opportunistic thieves . To Each His Own
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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kayhara wrote:tycho wrote:When thinking about this, please remember that Adam Smith- like thinking and capitalism can no longer hold.
We need new economic and political thinking, and our creations need not be on the 'developed countries' examples.
At the moment the most scarce resource is humanity. In fact when we look at global suicide rates and try to find reasons for them we get evidence against present schools of thought.
The present generation owes something to the coming ones, and they only owe the duty to sustain and propagate humanity, ethically and physically. So far we're doing much of the latter and less of the former, and that's the tragedy. I like your point about thinking that being developed is being like the US r Singapore, we cab create our own development that suits our culture and environment, a quick example, the street lights we do them like developed countries with control boxes at low reach they get vandalized, my solution would be to place them higher away from opportunistic thieves . Go to Mlolongo and see the height of those lights....none has bulbs. The people who take them off are well known but as Kenyans its a taboo to report offenders to the police. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2008 Posts: 6,275 Location: Kenya
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tony stark wrote:2012 wrote:Is it just me or is Kenya's population growing too fast? Just a few years ago, we were 20m. Now I hear we are 51m??
Is this a good or bad thing? It's just you!! Total fertility rate is 3.7 latest Kenya demographic survey. Highest Total fertility rate was 8 in the 70s. The growth will continue to happen because of the huge base but the growth has reduced massively. Total fertility rate in places like Kirinyaga is as low as 2.5 and this is the fertility rate in well managed developed countries. Do not be too excited and happy about fertility rate lower than 2.5 as being developed. I quoted below in October 07, 2009 hereQuote:Look at it differently. I read a report on the world's changing demographics:
- According to research,in order for a culture to maintain itself for more than 25 years,there must be fertility rate of 2.11 children required per family
- With anything else,the culture will decline
- Historically,no culture has ever reversed a 1.9 fertility rate
- A rate of 1.3,impossible to reverse because it would take 80-100 years to correct itself and there is no economic model to support it
- In other words if two sets of parent each have one child.
- If those children have one child,then there is 1/4 as many grandchildren as grandparents
- If 1 million children born now,it's hard to have 2 million adults in the workforce in 26 years time
- As population shrinks,so is the culture
- Fertility rate across the entire Europe is mere 1.38!
- Historically,these numbers are impossible to reverse
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2018 Posts: 428
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Due to natural population growth and continued rural urban migration, the population of Nairobi will soon reach 10 million. If you think traffic and water shortages are bad now, you just wait.
On useful proposal I have seen is that gava should take aggressive measures to relocate people upcountry. All Ministry headquarters and all parastatal operations should be gradually shifted to other towns. Army HQ, Airforce, Police etc. should be shifted gradually
Why must every HQ be in Nairobi?
Gava should order parastatals to stop hiring in Nairobi and only offer new jobs up country. Just select 3 or 4 towns to focus transfer of jobs and create new population centres. I would pick something like Yatta or Narok
And ban people from buying land in these towns. Land speculation should be brought under control or banned. Henceforth if a person buys land in a town or close to a town, they should be charged property taxes as is done in Europe and North America. If the land is left idle, the property taxes should be double. Ridiculous levels Land speculation is a hindrance to development.
Finally offer private corporations heavy tax breaks to shift their operations away from Nrb. Tell EABL for example that if they re-open their plant in Kisumu and shift 1000 jobs there, they will get a 10 year tax break. Incentize Kericho tea packers etc to move their HQ to Eldoret or elsewhere. Revive Mumias Sugar on condition that their operations are in Bungoma or Kach or gasp !Mumias !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,703
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Kusadikika wrote:Mimi sioni shida. There is no problem in Kenya. We will develop or fail to develop and progress at our own pace and it is OK either way. You cannot have change without changing the people.
People forget that the most obsessed countries with "maendeleo" were the countries of the former USSR. I doubt there is any one leader in the world who achieved more "maendeleo" than Joseph Stalin during his 30 year rule. Cities would be built from scratch in the most inhospitable places, whole populations relocated thousands of miles away and millions killed. Go ask Russians whether they were happy and celebrating because of the "maendeleo". Right now Stalin has become more popular in Russia because most of those he traumatized have died and the young people can enjoy the maendeleo. I have no desire to be praised by anyone 60 years from now. I have adapted to kwenda na matatu, kukwama kwa jam, kuruka mitaro ya sewage, kuoga na basin, kutumia choo ya nje etc. I am not suffering by living this way so why should I be compelled to suffer real hardship of relocation or forced labor so that some future generation can have more conveniences?
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