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NBK- a junk stock?
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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deadpoet wrote:what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout? merger of state banks still on track
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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deadpoet wrote:what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout? It has to be factored in the FY 17 results.After results announcement,it will be clear on the way forward. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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It has wiped out the little profit left on the table, not to mention consumer confidence
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout? merger of state banks still on track Wazi captain KCB has the necessary cash to acquire the good book of NBK. If they request a rights issue debe tutajaza Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:deadpoet wrote:what happened to the merger talks with consolidated bank? or KCB's proposed buyout? merger of state banks still on track Wazi captain KCB has the necessary cash to acquire the good book of NBK. If they request a rights issue debe tutajaza Junk kabisa.. Hope @maka has 100% provisions such as @vvs
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...
Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?
Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)... Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...
Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?
Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)... Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki Times change. Use context. IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today. Microsoft was king once. It isn't today. BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more. Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again. NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value. Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now. Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...
Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?
Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)... Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki Times change. Use context. IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today. Microsoft was king once. It isn't today. BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more. Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again. NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value. Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now. Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today. I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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whiteowl wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...
Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?
Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)... Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki Times change. Use context. IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today. Microsoft was king once. It isn't today. BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more. Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again. NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value. Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now. Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today. I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change. Ukora tu... They kulad the bank proper... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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maka wrote:whiteowl wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:People... NBK is doing OK... the question is NOT whether NBK is a junk stock (IMHO, it is not)... the question is of PRICE...
Is NBK worth the 48/-??? Or more? Or less?
Paka (as I argued in another forum is not worthless... just not worth 4/-)... Sidestepping wazua folks since 2010.. Wewe mzee nakucheki Times change. Use context. IBM was the powerhouse once. It isn't today. Microsoft was king once. It isn't today. BBK was by far the largest (most profitable) bank once. No more. Heck, KQ was a prince once. Flying high. It's broke today. Bankrupt. Again. NBK was worth something back then. It was a question of price/value. Same with Paka, just not worth 4/- then or now. Safaricom was a laggard one day. It's the king today. I remember making over 50% gains on this monkey in a span of a few months back in 2013.Munir was blowing lots of hot air and winning awards for transforming the bank via rebranding and cooking books.Times do change. Ukora tu... They kulad the bank proper... NBK KES 4.40 and HF KES 5.60 in a race to the bottom.. NSE is turning more and more people into ‘paupers’
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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All charges against Munir dropped,they are even considering making him a state witness. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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Worse than junk. It's a decaying stock
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,455
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MaichBlack wrote:Kaffir wrote:This stock is going to kill people. Volumes are higher than average, at a price higher than the fundamentals can support.
@Kaffir - I can't agree with you more. Traders might make money from this stock but any investor buying into it at the current prices either has inside information or is a serious gambler!! The current price has factored in the best case scenario of the shares conversion/privatization tussle. And things could go terribly wrong! This is a classical case of high risk - low return. Even a sane gambler wouldn't like to find himself in such a situation. No matter how things turn out, this is one stock I would rather observe from outside! There are better options out there. Back in 2010.... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,455
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MaichBlack wrote:Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.
Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=
Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=
Current price (after bonus): 44/=
Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=
Difference: 308 - 200 = 108
Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=
Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.
Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.
But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!! Still in 2010.... Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.
Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=
Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=
Current price (after bonus): 44/=
Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=
Difference: 308 - 200 = 108
Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=
Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.
Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.
But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!! Still in 2010.... Si hii ni krimino!
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.
Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=
Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=
Current price (after bonus): 44/=
Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=
Difference: 308 - 200 = 108
Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=
Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.
Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.
But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!! Still in 2010.... Si hii ni krimino! Na bado the worst is yet to be seen Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.
Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=
Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=
Current price (after bonus): 44/=
Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=
Difference: 308 - 200 = 108
Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=
Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.
Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.
But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!! Still in 2010.... Si hii ni krimino! Should be split up,sold,delisted and deregistered Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/28/2018 Posts: 42 Location: Nairobi
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Q3 results PDF https://nationalbank.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/National-Bank-Financials.pdfNational Bank of Kenya's NBK after-tax earnings in the first nine months of trading ended September 2018 dropped by 84 per cent to Sh21.97 million owing to reduced lending. The decline, from the previous year’s Sh138 million, was mainly driven by reduced interest and non-interest income. While interest income shrunk by 10.5 per cent to Sh6.32 billion, non-interest income dropped by 16.3 per cent to Sh1.51 billion. Loans and advances to customers dropped by Sh9.9 billion or 17 per cent to Sh48 billion when compared to last year’s nine month position of Sh57.88 billion. This knocked down its interest income from loans and advances by 18 per cent to Sh3.09 billion.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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drogon wrote:Q3 results PDF https://nationalbank.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/National-Bank-Financials.pdfNational Bank of Kenya's NBK after-tax earnings in the first nine months of trading ended September 2018 dropped by 84 per cent to Sh21.97 million owing to reduced lending. The decline, from the previous year’s Sh138 million, was mainly driven by reduced interest and non-interest income. While interest income shrunk by 10.5 per cent to Sh6.32 billion, non-interest income dropped by 16.3 per cent to Sh1.51 billion. Loans and advances to customers dropped by Sh9.9 billion or 17 per cent to Sh48 billion when compared to last year’s nine month position of Sh57.88 billion. This knocked down its interest income from loans and advances by 18 per cent to Sh3.09 billion. With all those resources, they could only manage 21m, yaani 21 million. Bure kabisa. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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