Wazua
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ARM HY2017
Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles  For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s  And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally.  Did you just abandon me? Did you just do an @Obiero on me? Pump and Dump? Not at all @VVS . I belief ARM has good prospects for the medium - long term but will remain volatile in the short term. Hence I took profits hoping to catch it lower later in the 2.00 - 2.50 range. I might be wrong however. It might zoom and hit 6.00 in which case I will just watch as you enjoy your profits. I hope I did my "homework" well. Whereas, I am looking at it a long-term investment, I am not confident enough to make it a core investment. Yet. There's a lot of noise but it seems CDC is going to help ARM on the Working Capital issue. I think the 1H (loss expected) results may take 2 months to release but it should provide more info. Ultimately, it seems the salvation may be a Strategic Investor coming into ARM by injecting cash and liaising with CDC to control and manage the firm by replacing the Paunrana family. If and when suspension is lifted, it will surely hit sub 2.50. Will be waiting for a second bite then. You need not prayers, but baptism. This 7 day theory is implausible. The ARM share will remain in suspension ad infimum, similar to what happened with Uchumi Obiero the mortician is waiting to perform the final rites. Pole vvs and fyatu Seven good morbided days. NSE order stream for ARM short-circuited and will be going through maintenance. Kindly, next time, take caution to be orderly in ordering your oddly orders and with sobbered minds, and not like someone freeing from hell 🔥, 🤔. Thus NSE for u😂😂😂😂, only a dimwit will not have gotten wind and exercised caution while dealing with AIM. Those who have joined our partners in crime @xxx et Al in chilling with a cold tusker, may you drop your #tags. Nah, this kokoto thing will break my pocket. Pliz governors do not catch @sonkos sneeze and cause mayhem in our world. Tonight, I sleep pretty. Today I almost understood what you wrote. All the way to kokoto. Then you lost me Same here  @ARMCEMENT will make me so much money. I don't believe CDC would stack the board and management with its people only to retreat becoz of some silly bank chasing repayment of a few million or even billion KES @xxxxx focus. No company is too big to fail. Remember Enron and WorldCom You can be sure I am very focused on @ARMCEMENT and the big picture.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:maka wrote:wukan wrote:maka wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:rwitre wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Still think that balance sheet is hiding alot more skeletons than what has been revealed so far. Time will tell. They keep coming @Obiero is all smiles For the umpteenth time never ever buy a corporate bond in Kenya... Never... What about safaricom and kengen bonds? ARM was junk bond In the bonds section... I mentioned safaricom and Eabl... When they were doing that bond ARM was a darling you wouldnt have termed it junk then.... Reminds me of Commercial Paper in the 90s And people are still buying this piece of junk.. Someone is seriously mopping up ARM. Demand was zero yesterday afternoon then someone showed up just before market close and cleaned out all supply from 3.50 to 3.90. Btw I sold at 3.80 yesterday banking 41% profits. The negative media coverage is not good for the rally. Did you just abandon me? Did you just do an @Obiero on me? Pump and Dump? Not at all @VVS . I belief ARM has good prospects for the medium - long term but will remain volatile in the short term. Hence I took profits hoping to catch it lower later in the 2.00 - 2.50 range. I might be wrong however. It might zoom and hit 6.00 in which case I will just watch as you enjoy your profits. I hope I did my "homework" well. Whereas, I am looking at it a long-term investment, I am not confident enough to make it a core investment. Yet. There's a lot of noise but it seems CDC is going to help ARM on the Working Capital issue. I think the 1H (loss expected) results may take 2 months to release but it should provide more info. Ultimately, it seems the salvation may be a Strategic Investor coming into ARM by injecting cash and liaising with CDC to control and manage the firm by replacing the Paunrana family. If and when suspension is lifted, it will surely hit sub 2.50. Will be waiting for a second bite then. You need not prayers, but baptism. This 7 day theory is implausible. The ARM share will remain in suspension ad infimum, similar to what happened with Uchumi Obiero the mortician is waiting to perform the final rites. Pole vvs and fyatu Seven good morbided days. NSE order stream for ARM short-circuited and will be going through maintenance. Kindly, next time, take caution to be orderly in ordering your oddly orders and with sobbered minds, and not like someone freeing from hell 🔥, 🤔. Thus NSE for u😂😂😂😂, only a dimwit will not have gotten wind and exercised caution while dealing with AIM. Those who have joined our partners in crime @xxx et Al in chilling with a cold tusker, may you drop your #tags. Nah, this kokoto thing will break my pocket. Pliz governors do not catch @sonkos sneeze and cause mayhem in our world. Tonight, I sleep pretty. Today I almost understood what you wrote. All the way to kokoto. Then you lost me Same here @ARMCEMENT will make me so much money. I don't believe CDC would stack the board and management with its people only to retreat becoz of some silly bank chasing repayment of a few million or even billion KES @xxxxx focus. No company is too big to fail. Remember Enron and WorldCom You can be sure I am very focused on @ARMCEMENT and the big picture. All the best @xxxx
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Those who bought after the fake changes must be feeling really awful. What changes? Management? I feel that the share should be suspended for the sake of investors. KQ too should be suspended until management become honest with the minority shareholders KQ should not be left on the NSE. If ARM is out, then KQ must follow in suspension. The baddest scam ever towards minority shareholders
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:xxxxx wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:cyruskulei wrote:cyruskulei wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Juojo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Fyatu wrote:Juojo wrote:Fyatu wrote:the deal wrote:, @fyatu I saw the Atlas thread... Why repeat the same mistake? We have alot of Gems at the NSE... Companies like this are not worth it... That HFCK is Gonna explode after the rate cap is removed.... It's a nice contrarian play... Almost same industry as ARM Cement! @deal Atlas proposition of chancho project was too good to ignore. However, as it turned out, those wazungus were outright criminals that exploited week elements at CMA. I invested in ARM after visiting their factory in Athi river and observing that operations were ongoing i.e., clinker was coming in aand ready mix concrete was coming out. I don't intend to add more shares but rather will hold and weather the storm...it is highly unlikely ARM will go the Atlas way. All indications are that all assets in Tanzania wil be sold and focus will be Kenya and Rwanda. Also CDC have initiated a turnaround thus the proverbial corner is not far off  ARM does not produce readymix concrete. You must have visited the wrong factory So what do you call the product they are delivering HERE and other upcoming skyscrappers of Nairobi almost on a daily basis https://twitter.com/RhinoCement/status/941646666762997760
#FakeNews Just kidding. I have no idea. I am following the saga coz it is fascinating! Good luck! Trust me. i have procured readymix in this market. They don't have a single readymix plant. They just sell cement to some guy who produces on their behalf. They are just a readymix broker who has a brand in the industry. Usidanganywe na posts za Shoshomedia How does that work on a practical basis? ARM supplies cement to another guy [who?] who then mixes in the extras and then sends it back to ARM? Then ARM sells it to consumers? Why can't ARM make their own readymix? Who vouches for the quality? ARM was the #3 cement when it listed firm but it has been eclipsed by others... ARM could have easily been #2 had it grown slowly and steadily. What % market share do the various cement firms have in Kenya? Lots of negative energy. Relax. This counter has made people money very fast. If u bought last week @2.5 and say you managed to buy 100k shares, then now @3.65, just in a week u have made more than 100,000.00. Better than any other. The concept of buy low and sell high happens here and now. Rocket rally prophecy has come to pass overcrowding @Obiero's fear uncertainty and doubt aka FUD. Rocket indeed. I have seen the spike. All the best though, look closely at the volumes and remember there are many times the number of people who want to get out as those interested in coming in.. Isn't this the same philosophy/strategy you advocated for KQ? The difference is that it actually happened in ARM vs KQ. Plus if @xxxxx is right then there's more to come for ARM over the next 12-18 months. Good question. @VVS you have my number. Give me call for a candid discussion on how ARM willl play out. Everyone else will have to pay big bucks at least 300 USD per hour to participate. @sparkly, hit me at 2mwekezaji@gmail.com .... Am interested in this discussion but of course not at 300 USD per hour  just watch and learn.....the difference between a good stock and a good investment. I told you it's about how much the market has discounted the bad news into the price. On Friday, ARM Cement Plc (ATHI:NAI) closed at 4.00, 66.67% above the 52 week low of 2.40 set on Jun 05, 2018 (www.ft.com) The price is going up to allow the earlier loosers to exit at a respectable point not that the company is going to make a profit. It's actually likely to post a higher loss. But spectators are allowed to gamble. High risk high returns Retracements are normal, let people make money. Normal but dangerous.. One could get trapped with crap on their hands It was written
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:At 1434 Hours EAT the situation is as follows: Open - 2.70 Low - 2.55 High - 2.90 Close - TBD Demand - 1.4m Supply - 470k at 2.70 In my view a rebound is imminent. I have thus jumped in 10k Shares @2.70. and a further 10k @2.55. I pray for @fyatu
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:murchr wrote:lochaz-index wrote:What is the purpose of suspending the share for only 7 working days? What do they aim to unearth or do in such a short span of time? Shouldn't it follow the uchumi way back in 2006? If so this will be a long stay for all those inside.
I maintain that I'm yet to see a share on the NSE sink so fast...from being one of the darlings of the bourse to flirting with liquidation. I don't think paunrana exited the stage without his pound(s) of flesh, so what might be left is a shell of company more so if you consider the less than forthright books of accounts. I think so too. Common phenomenon with business men coming from the 44th tribe. Really, how bad was the decision to go to Tz? Some fish smells big here Sale of that fertilizer unit also looked very fishy deal. Is CDC completely clueless? CDC invests public money & I believe these are a drop in the ocean for them. They will aggregate their investment & have an explanation for both positive & negative investments using global performance. I don't think they are taken to task on a nitty gritty basis. The question was whether they were clueless. The answer is yes If I ever start a firm, I should knock on CDC's doors! From investing in ARM at 40/- to selling off a part of ARM to Paunrana to this mess with the banks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,699 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Yaliyopita si ndwele ganga yajaayo. ARM is gone Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. If the banks with the bigger balances were to lead this, we would be looking at receivership rather than administration. The way CDC took control of everything really scared these guys since their relationship with arm was based on different dynamics. They felt they were being crowded out prior to their facilities being repaid. The action is not INTENDED to kill off @ARM. Rather its meant to push CDC into providing a final position regarding its commitments to avail funding to clear the debts with specific and mutually agreeable timelines and repayment terms sooner rather than later. I suspect the banks got wind of the funding plans and may not have been happy with Ts & CD.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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xxxxx wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. If the banks with the bigger balances were to lead this, we would be looking at receivership rather than administration. The way CDC took control of everything really scared these guys since their relationship with arm was based on different dynamics. They felt they were being crowded out prior to their facilities being repaid. The action is not INTENDED to kill off @ARM. Rather its meant to push CDC into providing a final position regarding its commitments to avail funding to clear the debts with specific and mutually agreeable timelines and repayment terms sooner rather than later. I suspect the banks got wind of the funding plans and may not have been happy with Ts & CD. My main concern here is akin to when the gates are being closed while the goods have already been sneaked out during a stock count.. ARM is simply no longer competitive. The actions by main competitor Bamburi are extremely aggressive, particularly it's new KES 4B plant with financial backing of deep pocketed Lafarge.. I see no way for ARM to recapture lost market share while struggling with its debt load. Here is the market share percentage as at 2017 report: Bamburi Cement 32.6 Mombasa Cement 15.8 East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC)15.1 Savannah Cement’s 15.0 ARM Cement controls 13.5 National Cement 8
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Recent press statements and newspaper articles have suggested that something is being done to restructure the balance sheet e.g., CDC will loan ARM some more money and IFC/or another investor will also buy out some of the debt and possibly acquire some equity at the "right price". Once this information is confirmed and the factories in Tanzania start posting positive return on capital then those already in will reap what they sow. It is naive to imagine this will happen overnight. Even @Mugundaman and @Wukan have a 10 year plus time frame for the dustbowl and its environs to become small cities and reap big from their investments. Take heart @vvs. Only write ARM off if CDC bails completely. Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Recent press statements and newspaper articles have suggested that something is being done to restructure the balance sheet e.g., CDC will loan ARM some more money and IFC/or another investor will also buy out some of the debt and possibly acquire some equity at the "right price". Once this information is confirmed and the factories in Tanzania start posting positive return on capital then those already in will reap what they sow. It is naive to imagine this will happen overnight. Even @Mugundaman and @Wukan have a 10 year plus time frame for the dustbowl and its environs to become small cities and reap big from their investments. Take heart @vvs. Only write ARM off if CDC bails completely. @fyatu There is no guarantee that CDC will go the full mile. Plus how much exactly are we talking about for the recovery 
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Recent press statements and newspaper articles have suggested that something is being done to restructure the balance sheet e.g., CDC will loan ARM some more money and IFC/or another investor will also buy out some of the debt and possibly acquire some equity at the "right price". Once this information is confirmed and the factories in Tanzania start posting positive return on capital then those already in will reap what they sow. It is naive to imagine this will happen overnight. Even @Mugundaman and @Wukan have a 10 year plus time frame for the dustbowl and its environs to become small cities and reap big from their investments. Take heart @vvs. Only write ARM off if CDC bails completely. @fyatu There is no guarantee that CDC will go the full mile. Plus how much exactly are we talking about for the recovery CDC are the majority shareholders with a 42% stake. Indications are they will weather the storm Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:obiero wrote:Fyatu wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Even though I have written off my ARM - "prudence" - I might go in for more depending on what info we receive over the next 10 days (7 business days). @xxxxx and @fyatu - In for a penny, in for a pound! Question: I do not understand why the bank with the SMALLEST loan would do this to ARM? Not Stanbic, not AFC but UBA. Wouldn't CDC have consulted UBA before installing a new chairman? And the LaFarge executive as a director? There's more to this saga than meets the eye. Recent press statements and newspaper articles have suggested that something is being done to restructure the balance sheet e.g., CDC will loan ARM some more money and IFC/or another investor will also buy out some of the debt and possibly acquire some equity at the "right price". Once this information is confirmed and the factories in Tanzania start posting positive return on capital then those already in will reap what they sow. It is naive to imagine this will happen overnight. Even @Mugundaman and @Wukan have a 10 year plus time frame for the dustbowl and its environs to become small cities and reap big from their investments. Take heart @vvs. Only write ARM off if CDC bails completely. @fyatu There is no guarantee that CDC will go the full mile. Plus how much exactly are we talking about for the recovery CDC are the majority shareholders with a 42% stake. Indications are they will weather the storm 
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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ARM lost the USD 140m issued to it by CDC.. The person who sold to CDC knew exactly what he was upto.. ARM needs a minimum of KES 10B to ensure a full turnaround within the next five years https://www.businessdail...721922-r5xlnk/index.html
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Who would have seen this in 2008? ARM getting suspended? I remember EAPC was the company that never looked concrete, Bamburi would always be protected by Lafarge but they were not doing as well as ARM... Wow!
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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2012 wrote:Who would have seen this in 2008? ARM getting suspended? I remember EAPC was the company that never looked concrete, Bamburi would always be protected by Lafarge but they were not doing as well as ARM... Wow! The economy has been severely mismanaged since Kibaki left.. Many other smaller firms have wound up. Many more will close shop
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,699 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:2012 wrote:Who would have seen this in 2008? ARM getting suspended? I remember EAPC was the company that never looked concrete, Bamburi would always be protected by Lafarge but they were not doing as well as ARM... Wow! The economy has been severely mismanaged since Kibaki left.. Many other smaller firms have wound up. Many more will close shop Now is the wrong time to mismanage a firm Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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CDC got shafted...I think they couldn't trust the Paunaranas anymore thus admistration...anyways it's a smart decision...you can not solve a bad investment by throwing in more money unless you are @obiero of KQ ... they will be happy to salvage anything left of ARM after the lenders take they're dues. The ARM brand is damaged for good...look at Uchumi...Nakumatt...it's hard to recover from here...!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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