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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
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mlennyma
#141 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 11:42:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.

Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.

No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.

2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.

Interim div?sioni mzuri
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Ericsson
#142 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 6:04:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.

Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.

No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.

2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.

Interim div?sioni mzuri

30 cents
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#143 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 8:48:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
36 cents. Payable 15 Oct.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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madebe
#144 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 10:54:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/7/2010
Posts: 251
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.

Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.

No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.

2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.

Interim div?sioni mzuri

30 cents

we now wait and see what TOTAL will post for ease of comparison. i was expecting the one offs to really boost the earnings....
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mlennyma
#145 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 11:40:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
36 cents. Payable 15 Oct.

36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Pesa Nane
#146 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 11:58:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
36 cents. Payable 15 Oct.

36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow


Quote:
Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.

By order of the Board
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Ebenyo
#147 Posted : Thursday, August 02, 2018 3:13:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Pesa Nane wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
36 cents. Payable 15 Oct.

36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow


Quote:
Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.

By order of the Board



This is a good gesture to shareholders.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Ericsson
#148 Posted : Friday, August 03, 2018 6:00:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
36 cents. Payable 15 Oct.

36 and 30cts but i can believe your figure since this is your cow


Quote:
Interim dividends
The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of KShs. 0.36 per share (2017 KShs. 0.30 interim dividend). The interim dividend, which is subject to withholding tax, will be paid on or around 15th October 2018 to shareholders in the register at the close of business on 24th August 2018.

By order of the Board



This is a good gesture to shareholders.


In the current drought environment with market downturn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Pesa Nane
#149 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 3:34:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Ebenyo
#150 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 4:15:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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mlennyma
#151 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 4:19:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.

The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Ericsson
#152 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 4:23:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.

The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming


@vvs favorite
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#153 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 6:51:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report.

I like KK but I am completely out of cash d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares.
Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner.
The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down.

That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK:
- 57% of revenues used to service debt
- Revenue targets may be missed
- 50% debt is FX
- SGR/ICD is still a mess
- SGR is not cashflow positive
- More debt as SGR heads west to UG
- Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize
- Higher taxes

I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc).
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#154 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:06:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,907
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.

The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming

KES 9 bob by Thursday next week

COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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obiero
#155 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:09:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,907
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
heri wrote:
Just when i decided to add more the price shoots up .what is the latest news


where is @vitu vingi to clap his hands at 19

@vvs needs to inform us on the latest happenings at KK, noting that Vivo has started to capture the local market recently, notably the downstream segment https://www.exchange.co....op-oil-dealer-in-kenya/

I am with @mieenyma i.e. I want to buy more shares. I am not a seller that 19.

How did Kk manage to emerge so strong in such a competition when it was almost collapsing? total and vivo failed,they should be far ahead of kk,with total trading at about 35bob a piece it's sensible for Kk to cross 20bob

Hallucinations

COOP ABP 15.85; IMH ABP 35.55; KQ ABP 5.75; MTN ABP 5.20
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Ericsson
#156 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:53:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report.

I like KK but I am completely out of cash d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares.
Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner.
The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down.

That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK:
- 57% of revenues used to service debt
- Revenue targets may be missed
- 50% debt is FX
- SGR/ICD is still a mess
- SGR is not cashflow positive
- More debt as SGR heads west to UG
- Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize
- Higher taxes

I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc).


Contradicted yourself by buying ARM,holding onto Centum whose debt ain't low
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#157 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 8:08:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,259
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The shares listed are ESOP shares and they can't be sold without following the ESOP rules. The dilution was captured in the FY 2017 Annual Report.

I like KK but I am completely out of cash d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

Warren Buffett: "Socks or stocks, we like them when they are on sale" so I am going to recycle my KK dividend into more KK shares.
Given what Ohana & his team have done in the past 5 years, I am OK with KK for the next 5 years if they can manage KK in a similar manner.
The catch is that GoK is poorly managed and the pain goes all the way down.

That said FY 2018 and FY 2019 are looking to be awful for the Kenyan economy and NSE. Look at GoK:
- 57% of revenues used to service debt
- Revenue targets may be missed
- 50% debt is FX
- SGR/ICD is still a mess
- SGR is not cashflow positive
- More debt as SGR heads west to UG
- Massive power projects (excess supply) which GoK has to subsidize
- Higher taxes

I am only buying firms with positive cashflow, low debt and good management but that's not a guarantee of success. Perhaps one should buy FX (USD, etc).

Contradicted yourself by buying ARM holding onto Centum whose debt ain't low


ARM was uncharacteristic for me and I gave my reasons for buying a (few) ARM. It's a pity I did not have the info as to what the banks were thinking at the time. In my books, they are worth zero.
Value Investing (buying at a discount to NAV) isn't guaranteed to produce a winner.

Centum: Tier 2 holding. The LTV is less than 50% + I am buying at 50% of NAV. FY18 and FY19 will be very slow/awful for their real estate business. I will hold on. Value Investing (buying at a discount to NAV) isn't guaranteed to produce a winner but I have done well using that approach.

On the other hand, given how KE is being (poorly) managed, perhaps it's time to buy FX.

The core portfolio (80%) remains the same:
I&M - Not easy for banks in FY18/19 Risk: Loan defaults and fraud
KenRe - Plods along but lots of cash. Risk: Politics
KK - Ohana has done well. Debt = Inventory. Risk: Squeezed margins
Unga - Profitable but I do NOT trust the Ndegwas. I want to exit but at a better price. Risk: Shady tactics

Tier 2
Centum - Bought more at sub-30 given the 50%+ discount to stated NAV.
Risk: Write-down of asset values ((Akiira, Amu, Sidian, Two Rivers)
Equity - I remain a JM fan but I (luckily) significantly reduced my position. Risk: Defaults and fraud
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#158 Posted : Tuesday, October 16, 2018 11:47:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
After Segman,now it's Ohana's time to eat
https://www.businessdail...028-12gb227z/index.html

The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has approved KenolKobil’s plans to have its Group managing director David Ohana acquire up to 88 million shares valued at Sh906.4 million in the oil marketer.

The regulator has allowed the Nairobi Securities Exchange-listed firm to list 79 million shares at the end of this month, adding to the nine million units that have already been issued.

Mr Ohana has an option to buy the shares over a period of six years at a price of Sh10.3 each, representing a discount of 22 per cent to yesterday’s closing price of Sh13.2.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#159 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2018 10:02:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,790
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.

The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming

KES 9 bob by Thursday next week

Very possible
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Angelica _ann
#160 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2018 10:12:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,927
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:


These means supply will be high and i expect demand to be low due to the huge volume of 79 million shares.A very good opportunity for KK shareholders to increase their holdings at low price.

The market is very bad for this,below 10bob is coming

KES 9 bob by Thursday next week

Very possible


Wacheni propaganda, these shares are held in trust as ESOP and will not be offloaded in the market just like that - like next week. Therefore the 79m shares will not affect the current market dynamics. I know you guys are targeting VVS.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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