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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
mlennyma
#121 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:12:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽

I hope they finished setting aside that kprl book cleaning money
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#122 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:14:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽

I hope they finished setting aside that kprl book cleaning money
Please rephrase your comment/question/statement.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#123 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:21:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽

I hope they finished setting aside that kprl book cleaning money
Please rephrase your comment/question/statement.

I didn't intend to joke with your cow,i know they were doing some provision for kprl
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Tuesday, July 24, 2018 5:38:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
@miennyma:

If you are asking whether there are more provisions for KPRL...

According to the Annual Report, interviews with Ohana and what was said at the AGM, the answer is NO.

All KPRL amounts due from KPRL have been written off BUT the claims have been lodged with KPRL/GOK.
If there is a settlement/payment then these will be written back and the net amount paid out as a special dividend.

KK (Chairman and Ohana) said that the KPRL claims are very old and they made the balance sheet look better than it really was. It also distorted the debtors analysis.

Kestrel released a report in 2018 that estimated KK's FY 2018 EPS at 2.50 - 2.90 but the introduction VAT will be problematic and can reduce consumption in the short-term as well as increase smuggling and adulteration.

The focus will be on increasing sales and improving the stations but there is no large acquisition in the near future. All acquisitions will be thoroughly analyzed and have to be accretive to earnings.

All subsidiaries are profitable and HQ/Kenya isn't funding/subsidizing any of them but Burundi isn't doing great because of shortage of forex and thus product to sell. Ethiopia is profitable but barely so.

Kenya remains the star. Zambia is doing well and expansion is on the cards.

IMHO, the clean-up was done to get KK ready for sale. Now that Biwott is dead, his heirs may be more interested in the cash than the business. Ohana will make a HUGE bundle (almost $10mn) if KK is sold at 20/-. Why wait to make this over 6 years, if he can get it sold sooner?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#125 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 10:23:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
According to 2018 PIEA Q2 report the market share is as follows;
Vivo Energy--17.1%
Total---15.9%
Kenol Kobil---14.9%
Gulf Energy---8.7%
Libya Oil (Oilibya)---7.5%
Others----35.9%
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#126 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:20:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Civil Aviation Market Share
KK 55.8%
Gulf 22.4%
Libya Oil 13.3%
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#127 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:49:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Civil Aviation Market Share
KK 55.8%
Gulf 22.4%
Libya Oil 13.3%


This is breakdown of the individual segments.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#128 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 12:55:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Who has the entire presentation? I didn't find it on PIEA's website.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#129 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 1:03:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Who has the entire presentation? I didn't find it on PIEA's website.


#2018PIEAQ2Report
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#130 Posted : Thursday, July 26, 2018 1:39:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Who has the entire presentation? I didn't find it on PIEA's website.


#2018PIEAQ2Report

Link to the entire report/pdf? @pesanane?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#131 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2018 9:38:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
https://www.businessdail...7478-10nflr1/index.html
Oil marketer KenolKobil

suffered the deepest market share erosion in the first quarter of the year as Vivo Energy, the retailer of Shell-branded fuel products, extended its lead over rivals.

The Petroleum Institute of East Africa (PIEA) data indicates that KenolKobil’s share of volume sales narrowed to 9.9 per cent in the January-March trading window, from 13.2 per cent in a similar period last year.

But market leader Vivo grew its share to 28 per cent from 26 per cent, ahead of second-placed French firm Total whose performance was flatlined, leaving it with a 23.1 per cent share of volume sales.

During the three-month period, National Oil Corporation of Kenya surged past Libya Oil to emerge fourth with a market size of 7.4 per cent.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kawi254
#132 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2018 10:51:30 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 467
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/KenolKobil-cedes-biggest-market-share-in-first-quarter/4003102-4687478-10nflr1/index.html
Oil marketer KenolKobil

suffered the deepest market share erosion in the first quarter of the year as Vivo Energy, the retailer of Shell-branded fuel products, extended its lead over rivals.

The Petroleum Institute of East Africa (PIEA) data indicates that KenolKobil’s share of volume sales narrowed to 9.9 per cent in the January-March trading window, from 13.2 per cent in a similar period last year.

But market leader Vivo grew its share to 28 per cent from 26 per cent, ahead of second-placed French firm Total whose performance was flatlined, leaving it with a 23.1 per cent share of volume sales.

During the three-month period, National Oil Corporation of Kenya surged past Libya Oil to emerge fourth with a market size of 7.4 per cent.


The multinationals must be taking a hit on the LPG cooking gas market as i see so many new LPG gas companies?

Who owns PRO GAS? All of a sudden it is all over the country.
madebe
#133 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2018 4:36:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/7/2010
Posts: 251
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Who has the entire presentation? I didn't find it on PIEA's website.


#2018PIEAQ2Report

Link to the entire report/pdf? @pesanane?



without the whole report, you cant make a conclusion....i was once talking to CEO of Total, the tall frenchman, and he told me being market leader is not a proud thing, there are challenges to that...heavy borrowings, thinly spread margins, kutapatapa etc...; i this like kenol model of just doing profitable business
Ebenyo
#134 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2018 6:46:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/KenolKobil-cedes-biggest-market-share-in-first-quarter/4003102-4687478-10nflr1/index.html
Oil marketer KenolKobil

suffered the deepest market share erosion in the first quarter of the year as Vivo Energy, the retailer of Shell-branded fuel products, extended its lead over rivals.

The Petroleum Institute of East Africa (PIEA) data indicates that KenolKobil’s share of volume sales narrowed to 9.9 per cent in the January-March trading window, from 13.2 per cent in a similar period last year.

But market leader Vivo grew its share to 28 per cent from 26 per cent, ahead of second-placed French firm Total whose performance was flatlined, leaving it with a 23.1 per cent share of volume sales.

During the three-month period, National Oil Corporation of Kenya surged past Libya Oil to emerge fourth with a market size of 7.4 per cent.


Number 3 is not bad.The volatile nature of oil prices could be the cause of slump in volumes.Ohanna is doing well and i trust he will steer kk to be the market leader.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
VituVingiSana
#135 Posted : Monday, July 30, 2018 7:22:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
I go for KK's AGM to listen to what they say. After the "lunch" crowd has left, we get to interact with the management.

Ohana has said that KK will pursue PROFITABLE business and not volumes/market share for the sake of market share.

If someone has a copy of the full PIEA 2Q 2018 report, please post it.

In the meantime, we wait for KK's results, which going by the comments made during the AGM, will be very good given the KPRL provisions are all done.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
madebe
#136 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 10:23:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/7/2010
Posts: 251
Location: nairobi
Kenol results out. I'm not so impressed... Check kenol twitter handle
murchr
#137 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 10:26:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
madebe wrote:
Kenol results out. I'm not so impressed... Check kenol twitter handle


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
obiero
#138 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 10:36:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,517
Location: nairobi
murchr wrote:
madebe wrote:
Kenol results out. I'm not so impressed... Check kenol twitter handle



This is decent considering current circumstances

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
murchr
#139 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 10:52:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
obiero wrote:
murchr wrote:
madebe wrote:
Kenol results out. I'm not so impressed... Check kenol twitter handle




This is decent considering current circumstances


Cost of sales +46%
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#140 Posted : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 10:56:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
I agree with @Madebe. I am not going to sugarcoat it. This is a disappointment given the "positive" vibes given to shareholders during the AGM.

Gross Profits are down 10% despite a 8% growth in volumes.
The growth in sales is simply a matter of increased fuel prices.
The net margins have taken a beating.
The Opex is down but that's a sleight of hand given the non-recurring KPRL expense.
There a +52mn turnaround in forex gains but that is a fickle line item. It's usually a forex loss given the general trend of the KES.
The Finance Charges are up huge given the higher oil prices and volume growth. Borrowings at 10.7bn which is almost +50% YOY.
After accounting for the options awarded to Ohana, the EPS has dipped to 1.065 for 1H which is a far cry from the 2.50 - 2.90 expected for the FY.

No, I am not impressed though I do admit that 1H 2018 has been tough for many firms given the high KES interest rates, increasing LIBOR and general malaise. KK needs to push all the right buttons in 2H to meet the 2.50 target.

2H will be tough with what's going on. I wonder what the hit will be on margins and volumes when VAT is likely to be introduced in September.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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