Wazua
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,941
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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DJIA I have been tracking the Dow for sometime now. Brown wave [ii] is now complete at about 25100. Expect that major fall in the DOW going forward. Target below 20,000 soon. This is an Elliott wave third of a third wave, the strongest and fastest moves happen here. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision. Quote:The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD Quote:The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day. Interest rates are soaring Quote:The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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lochaz-index wrote:Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision. Quote:The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD Quote:The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day. Interest rates are soaring Quote:The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent. Well that escalated fast. Quote:Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows. Quote:The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically. The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window. The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs. Quote:As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies. Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead? Quote:Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday.
Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S. Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season. https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...twCNNi&utm_term=linkThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision. Quote:The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD Quote:The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day. Interest rates are soaring Quote:The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent. Well that escalated fast. Quote:Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows. Quote:The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically. The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window. The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs. Quote:As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies. Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead? [quote]Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday. Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S. Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season. https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...wCNNi&utm_term=link[/quote] Interesting... The Turkey 10Y Government Bond has a 20.460% yield. 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -471 bp. Central Bank Rate is 17.75%. The Turkey rating is BB-, according to Standard & Poor's agency. Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 513.26. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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maka wrote:lochaz-index wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Some EM pain for Turkey via capital flight and CB's indecision. Quote:The central bank announced it would keep its headline interest rate steady at 17.75 per cent even as annual consumer price inflation reached 15.4 per cent in June — more than triple the official target Turkish lira has lost almost 30% YTD Quote:The embattled lira plummeted following the announcement, falling as much as 4.2 per cent before recovering slightly to 4.87 to the dollar at the end of the European trading day. Interest rates are soaring Quote:The yield on the nation’s 10-year bond surged 184 basis points to 18.67 percent. Well that escalated fast. Quote:Turkey is just the latest developing economy to plunge into chaos. The Turkish lira has shed more than 40% since January, while the country's stock market has been cut in half European and Turkish banks are staring at humongous losses not to mention the government is in a real pickle as management of borrowing costs and deficits was heavily dependent on capital inflows. Quote:The turmoil follows a similar currency crash in Argentina that led to a rescue by the International Monetary Fund. In recent days, the Russian ruble, Indian rupee and South African rand have also tumbled dramatically. The contagion cuts through the EM giants like a hot knife through butter with the notable exception of Chinese yuan. The South African rand in particular is yet to see the dark side of the moon - my money is on them to have the roughest ride for a two year window. The Turkish meltdown is causing quakes for European peripheral economies with Italy demanding QE infinity to support their fledgling markets and suppress their borrowing costs. Quote:As confidence in Erdogan and the Turkish currency drops, European banks that lent money in Turkey are beginning to worry about whether they can recover their loans. And analysts say this currency problem, coupled with rising interest rates in the U.S., are scaring investors off other emerging economies. Beyond the financial realm, some interesting geopolitical developments, is NATO dead? [quote]Earlier this month the longtime NATO members engaged in a heated exchange of sanctions and threats of retaliation. Not long after that, President Trump said his administration would be doubling its tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum — raising the levies to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, and helping encourage the lira's free fall Friday. Beyond geographic considerations, Turkey has been a key partner in the fight against ISIS, a militant group that has staged attacks within its borders, and it is a rare Muslim nation that has diplomatic relations with Israel, another U.S. ally. Turkey has also been hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees who might otherwise be traveling to Europe or the U.S. Looks like a dog fight in the making and the IMF is going to have one bumper of a season. https://www.npr.org/2018...-between-u-s-and-turkey
https://money.cnn.com/20...wCNNi&utm_term=link[/quote] Interesting... The Turkey 10Y Government Bond has a 20.460% yield. 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -471 bp. Central Bank Rate is 17.75%. The Turkey rating is BB-, according to Standard & Poor's agency. Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 513.26. The dreaded yield curve inversion with a dash of hyperinflation. EU appears to be engaged on too many fronts...if major banks lose their shirts in Turkey then the euro will be in serious trouble. Interesting to note that the yield on the 10yr note was hovering at around 10% in August of 2017...one year later it is at 20%+. That said Erdoğan is not the type to go out with a whimper, he will go down swinging at enormous costs to the Turkish economy. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,660
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Debt-fueled economic growth always resets. This like kshs moving to 150 to the dollar. It's possible so let's wait for our turn 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:Debt-fueled economic growth always resets. This like kshs moving to 150 to the dollar. It's possible so let's wait for our turn Can't fault him. Some would argue that being early is the same as being wrong but his approach preserves capital(and grows wealth over the long haul) as opposed to being a perennial optimist(perpetual bull). EM/FM will be a bloodbath, it is a question of when not if. As for KE, the debt wasn't prudently managed (embezzlement) or invested (what with the boondoggles acquired or built) therefore the ride down won't be courteous. NSE20 currently sits on a knife edge of critical support, next move will be major and it will dovetail with movement in the KES. For all the free money that had been doing the rounds since 2008 NSE never had a proper bull...most of it found home in real estate. However, KE is heavily reliant on inflows which isn't comforting knowing how fast the tide can turn (ask Turkey). Add some self sabotage in the name of so-called robinhood tax and increased excise duty on fintech...it isn't a pretty picture. Every economy will have its time at the cleaners but some will take a long while to undo the damage and get back on on track. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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