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ARM Cement FY 2017 disaster - 6.5bn loss
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker. The share help up decently despite the open valves. Open - 2.70 Close - 2.95 High - 3.00 Low - 2.45 Volume 1.2m Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner. This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money. New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM. Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Assets could be massively overstated or have become obsolute...Next thing is asset write offs...Cash flow statement says it all... Valuing this company using NAV/Share is misleading... CDC got played... They must now retreat with tails between legs 
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/27/2018 Posts: 56 Location: Cambrian Dc
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker. The share help up decently despite the open valves. Open - 2.70 Close - 2.95 High - 3.00 Low - 2.45 Volume 1.2m Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner. This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money. New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM. Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first! Only lafarge is left at the table. Hao wengine walitoroka after looking at the books. If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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VyaBureSiachi wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker. The share help up decently despite the open valves. Open - 2.70 Close - 2.95 High - 3.00 Low - 2.45 Volume 1.2m Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner. This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money. New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM. Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first! Only lafarge is left at the table. Hao wengine walitoroka after looking at the books. What's the NAV minus the Tz factories?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio? The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole. I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ. KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked. Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.
KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north! ARM is very economical with their results. I would love to see their gross margins, operating margins and net margins. I would also have loved to see their segmental reports. Bure kabisa Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/8/2018 Posts: 73
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Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.
KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north! ARM is very economical with their results. I would love to see their gross margins, operating margins and net margins. I would also have loved to see their segmental reports. Bure kabisa That's given in the Annual Report. Even KK doesn't give that info in the "results announcement"... Will ARM have an Investor Presentation or Conf Call? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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RIEK01 wrote:Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment. You cant make money in stocks with this kind of thinking. To make money in stocks you have to think and act counter-intuitively. Sell popular stocks and buy unpopular stocks as long as the margin of safety is big enough. ARM is worth at least 15B but now trading at less than 3B. I Consider the margin big enough. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:RIEK01 wrote:Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment. You cant make money in stocks with this kind of thinking. To make money in stocks you have to think and act counter-intuitively. Sell popular stocks and buy unpopular stocks as long as the margin of safety is big enough. ARM is worth at least 15B but now trading at less than 3B. I Consider the margin big enough. KQ equity is worth KES 72B
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2008 Posts: 503
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.
KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north! ARM is very economical with their results. I would love to see their gross margins, operating margins and net margins. I would also have loved to see their segmental reports. Bure kabisa That's given in the Annual Report. Even KK doesn't give that info in the "results announcement"... Will ARM have an Investor Presentation or Conf Call? Of course not...if they didn't do them during the years of plenty, expect nothing during these lean years. What kind if management spends half a newspaper advert talking about board changes while financial results are unnecessarily summarized? Its like CMA and NSE don't have minimum disclosure standards.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Looking at the results, I get the impression that the balance sheet is lying. The cashflow statement says the core business is haemorrhaging money at a suicidal rate yet the balance sheet is of the opinion that the company is sitting on a gold mine of an asset book(NAV of 20). Shouldn't the prescription to turn around this patient be straight forward? Sell/cut off the gangrenous/ancillary parts as quickly as possible to prop up the business and by extension the company. ARM should not be in the current predicament with that balance sheet not unless they have juiced the figures in there by ridiculous margins. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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lochaz-index wrote:Looking at the results, I get the impression that the balance sheet is lying. The cashflow statement says the core business is haemorrhaging money at a suicidal rate yet the balance sheet is of the opinion that the company is sitting on a gold mine of an asset book(NAV of 20). Shouldn't the prescription to turn around this patient be straight forward? Sell/cut off the gangrenous/ancillary parts as quickly as possible to prop up the business and by extension the company. ARM should not be in the current predicament with that balance sheet not unless they have juiced the figures in there by ridiculous margins. Sorry to say but that could be the case. Even the auditors were concerned "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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murchr wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Looking at the results, I get the impression that the balance sheet is lying. The cashflow statement says the core business is haemorrhaging money at a suicidal rate yet the balance sheet is of the opinion that the company is sitting on a gold mine of an asset book(NAV of 20). Shouldn't the prescription to turn around this patient be straight forward? Sell/cut off the gangrenous/ancillary parts as quickly as possible to prop up the business and by extension the company. ARM should not be in the current predicament with that balance sheet not unless they have juiced the figures in there by ridiculous margins. Sorry to say but that could be the case. Even the auditors were concerned Anyone with the full financials? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 909
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Auditor raises the red flag on ARMhttps://www.businessdail...94378-p3h7r1/index.html
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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So why the buying appetite? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/22/2015 Posts: 224 Location: Mombasa, Kenya
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mlennyma wrote:So why the buying appetite? PPT. they will soon be exhausted and the downward spiral will resume Start!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:So why the buying appetite? I am not an investor in ARM but it seems to me folks are looking at the 85% discount to NAV (FY 2017). So even if 50% of the NAV is lost in FY 2018, there's still a hefty margin if a Strategic Investor comes and buys out the minorities at 10/-. That said, think of KQ which had a Rights at 14 when NAV was much higher BUT still burned through the new cash and the "old" NAV to end up with -ve NAV... then had a GoK bailout with cheap loans and did a coerced Debt Conversion... and now wants the assets of KAA to use as collateral! So be careful! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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Have staff been paid their June salaries?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,520 Location: nairobi
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heri wrote:Have staff been paid their June salaries? Good question
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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ARM Cement FY 2017 disaster - 6.5bn loss
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