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KQ in 2010-11 (Boom, Bust or Blah)
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 4:35:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
In 2010-11 (1 April to 31 March) KQ plans to open 9 new destinations.

Juba in S.Sudan - started. (6,000 passengers per month from NBO for all airlines)
Muscat in Oman - (LOL... the reason why we have kadhi courts!)

Lome in Togo (Ecobank is hq'd in Lome)
Luanda in Angola (Africa's fastest growing economy)
N’djamena in Chad (How do you pronounce N’djamena)
Beira in Mozambique (Interesting potential)
Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso (Huh? Why?)

Rome in Italy (Tourism. Check out Malindi)
Jeddah in Saudi Arabia (Biashara? Haj?)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 4:38:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
2 E-170s have been delivered 4 June 2010. I think.
2 E-190s to be delivered during the year
2 737-300s to be delivered during the year

In the Summer, KQ also leases a MD-11 from KLM. I wonder what KQ will do about the old 767s whose leases expire in 2010.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
And1589
#3 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 6:54:55 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2009
Posts: 169
Location: Syokimau
Muscat in Oman
the deal
#4 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 8:35:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@vvs 2009/2010 was their year and they messed up...IATA says the most booming markets in 2010-11 will be the far east,ME,South America then Africa...but the most worrying thing is have u seen the 14% drop in passengers no's to the far east...this should be their focus not flying around Africa with half empty planes...definitely they will find it difficult to stay in the black...in. 2010-11 its either a BUST or a BLAH...I'm a disguntled KQ shareholder...
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 8:35:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
And1589 wrote:
Muscat in Oman

Asante! I have no idea how it slipped my mind. I wonder if this is permanent or something to get football mad Omanis into S.Africa?

Anyway, I hope they can do decent business there especially with many people at the coast & zanzibar having family connections in Oman.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:46:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Well, seems (for now) the sell-off is over with...

I think 52/- will be the new sideways price until either:

1) Release of 1Q 2010-11 passenger numbers
2) Release of 1H 2010-11 financial numbers
3) The AGM where more operational+financial details may be discussed
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 4:24:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
http://www.businessdaily.../-/d3bebiz/-/index.html

Tourism/visitors to Kenya (Jan-May) better than 2007. I know there are many more airlines serving Nairobi/Kenya vs 2007 but at least a large portion come over/through Kenya using KQ.

I expect good passenger numbers for 1Q 2010-11 to be published in 2 weeks!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#8 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 6:57:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS ryanair's Q2 results could be a signal for KQ... So as a shareholder you should check it out...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#9 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 7:12:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
guru267 wrote:
@VVS ryanair's Q2 results could be a signal for KQ... So as a shareholder you should check it out...


Ryanair operates in Europe...i dont think they had any plane flying to the world cup...meanwhile KQ flew to SA the whole month so the Ash thing is insignficant plus KQ hedged their fuel at $76 so i expect kidogo hedge gains...the 2010 Q1 numbers will set the tone for the year their out next week Friday...
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, July 20, 2010 9:51:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@VVS ryanair's Q2 results could be a signal for KQ... So as a shareholder you should check it out...
RyanAir is 100% Europe oriented & has a completely different model (except flying passengers) from KQ. It is not a good comparison at all...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 5:16:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 11:18:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
Sigh... On this counter... I am losing my shirt! At least I planned to wait for 1H 2010-11 results!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#13 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 11:56:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
Sigh... On this counter... I am losing my shirt! At least I planned to wait for 1H 2010-11 results!

Eishh this counter is pain...Pray Pray Pray the 1H results are good and that KQ management doesnt give ASH as a reason...
selah
#14 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 12:35:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
I think after most Airlines withdraw some of their planes which were brought to cash in on the world cup KQ might gain some of the ground it lost during the WORLD CUP FEVER.

The tourism board is targeting 1.2 million tourist this year and most probably because of the referendum maybe 700,000 tourist will be realised I think thats a good number in regards to KQ share of market.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
cnn
#15 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 1:12:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,621
I have bought more today @46,i believe half year will be better and current price a nice entry point.The only problem is the referendum jitters.
Cicero
#16 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 3:31:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
selah wrote:
I think after most Airlines withdraw some of their planes which were brought to cash in on the world cup KQ might gain some of the ground it lost during the WORLD CUP FEVER.

The tourism board is targeting 1.2 million tourist this year and most probably because of the referendum maybe 700,000 tourist will be realised I think thats a good number in regards to KQ share of market.


I highly doubt KQ lost any ground during the world cup period. In fact, i am certain KQ gained ground (increased passagers to/fro ZA n elsewhere). I am applying the same reasoning here that i find in the tea/coffee/wheat areas during bonus/boom n along the coast in the high tourist season, where you find sex workers migrating to follow the money. It doesnt actually mean local ones lose ... locals may be infact overwhelmed by business needing help from foreigners ... ditto KQ!
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
ProverB
#17 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 3:38:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Cicero wrote:

I highly doubt KQ lost any ground during the world cup period. In fact, i am certain KQ gained ground (increased passagers to/fro ZA n elsewhere).


@cicero..increased "passagers" (sic) do not necessarily translate to shareholder value...fact of the matter is that over last 5 years KQ's cost of carriage per passenger and per kilo of cargo has increased.. what good is extra passengers/cargo with persistent increase in cost margin per either? Think

ProverB wrote:

For the year ended 31st March 2010, Kenya Airways Ltd recorded Total revenue of Kshs 70,743,000,000.00, and the company’s
Operating Profit amounted to Kshs 1,839,000,000.00

Operating margin = (Operating Profit /Revenues) x 100.
= (1,839,000,000.00 / 70,743,000,000.00) x 100 = 2.6%

Out of every Kshs1.00 Kenya Airways collected as revenue in the year, it retained only Kshs 0.03, as operating profit after paying for the operational expenses incurred in getting that Kshs 1.00
It is out of that 3Cents that Kenya Airways is to pay out financial costs as well as taxes and the balance retained as profits for share holders.

Should we choose to focus only on the company’s core business operations, Kenya Airways operational performance for the just ended period is rather dismal compared to the previous periods Sad
 For 2010, Kenya Airways had an operating margin of 2.6%
 For 2009, the operating margin was 5.6%
 For 2008, the operating margin was 11.6%
 For 2007, the operating margin was 13.1%
Declining operating margins over time should be a warning sign to any investor. d'oh!

On average, out of every kshs1 in revenues that Kenya Airways collects annually, it has overtime paid more and more in operational costs. It could imply that the company is having difficulty in bringing in revenues considering that it registered slightly declined revenues compared to the previous year, or that the management is facing increasing challenges in improving the company’s Operational Efficiency.
The 54.5% decline in Operating Profits might explain why despite reporting 148% improvement in earnings, the share registered a 8% decline in trading price as soon as results were published.

A lot is learnt by observing Operating profits trend over time, but it should not be the only factor one considers when planning whether or not the Kenya Airways shares are a viable investment. smile

Ceteris paribus. Pray .
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
the deal
#18 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 4:11:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
cnn wrote:
I have bought more today @46,i believe half year will be better and current price a nice entry point.The only problem is the referendum jitters.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
welcome to the flight of pain....
Pierce
#19 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 4:37:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
@the deal........Wooooooooooooooooooii!Pray
qw25041985
#20 Posted : Friday, July 23, 2010 5:00:10 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@the deal , @ pierce wooooooooooooooooooooooiiiiiiiiiii
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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