@sparkly i agree totally with this analysis... Bamburi cannot match last years results due to the one off capital gains but i'm not sure about EAPC because the stock has a really low P/E and ARM is a perfect cement firm to hold...

As for the energy costs doesnt CFC forsee these falling next year due to reduced usage of thermal power????

ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.

@my 2 cents i agree. The special div is historical and obviously factored into the current price. Our mkt would not be that inefficient. CFC is convinced that only Bamburi will cede mkt share to mombasa cement, cemtech and the cheap imports, while ARM will grab more mkt share. IMO Bamburi has the resources to pull a Safaricom.

Reason why I love this stock is because they are soooo cash rich, almost no debt and costs are tightly controlled. And with all the construction craze right now, there is more than enough business for all the players.

i still feel BAMB will grow

@sparkly one thing you have to understand is that brokers make their recommendations based on short term... So if they said sell bamburi please sell because the price will start to fall.

ARM half year is up 16%,annualized EPS is at 7.02.So why the recent rise in the share price?

TBT. Bad luck for those who sold Bamburi and held ARM.

I have done some small research on cement consumption in the various places that duty takes me to. These are my observations:

For home building purposes

Coast:
ARM, Bamburi, Mombasa Cement...note that Mombasa cement has edged out ARM in this market

Lower Eastern
Simba cement , Portland/blue shield, Bamburi

Nairobi
Portland, Bamburi

Central and Rift
Portland, Simba, Bamburi, Rai


For heavy duty cement/ready mix(for Skyscrapper, Storied buildings, Roads, Railways, Ports, Airports)

Coast:
Bamburi, ARM

Lower Eastern
Bamburi

Nairobi
Savannah, Bamburi, ARM

Central and Rift valley
Bamburi


Anyone who can estimate ARM market share? Anyone who has a different opinion on which cement company is dominant where?

Everywhere i go, i see lots of infrastructure coming up. Erstwhile sleepy towns like Voi, Kilifi, Malindi, Embu, Wote, Machakos are now dotted with yellow cranes and ready mix concrete trucks and shacman tippers are all over these places ferrying rubble(hardcore) and cement. From my observation Bamburi is the only visible company. Who is ARM selling their cement to? Why should i invest in ARM and not in Bamburi?

ARM was a good company with bad management.