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ARM HY2017
Ericsson
#141 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 1:29:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out

It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.

A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.

According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.

“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.

Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.

Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.

It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer.

From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging.


The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014.

With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament.


@vvs was a fun of the counter/stock during the debt expansion.
Little did he know what lies benath
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Fyatu
#142 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 1:37:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out

It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.

A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.

According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.

“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.

Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.

Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.

It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer.

From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging.


The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014.

With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament.


Mombasa cement, Simba cement and Savannah cement are selling like hot bread. It is rare to find Rhino RX cement in hardwares nowadays.Perhaps ARM is curving a new niche. See link below

LINK
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
VituVingiSana
#143 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 4:55:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out

It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.

A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.

According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.

“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.

Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.

Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.

It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer.

From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging.


The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014.

With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament.

That we do not know for sure. Except for Bamburi, whose parent is the massive LaFarge, EAPCC is dead in the water with anemic production and losses galore. The other firms are privately owned thus need not publish their financials for all to see.
ARM would have been better served if it had gone on a slow but steady expansion path.

Others that faltered with rapid expansion, funded by debt, include Nakumatt, Uchumi, KQ, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#144 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 5:03:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out

It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.

A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.

According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.

“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.

Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.

Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.

It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer.

From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging.


The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014.

With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament.


@vvs was a fun of the counter/stock during the debt expansion.
Little did he know what lies benath

Nope. I did regret not buying ARM shares when they were deep in the funk [as low as 3/- pre-split/bonus and went up to 60]. It's mesmerizing to see a firm's share price go higher and higher but I never bought the shares since I found the PER & P/B challenging.

I have followed WB for years and he talks of "value investing" ... Even as I admired Equity's and Safaricom's rapid growth in EPS and price, I only became a shareholder much later in these firms after they "stabilized" i.e. I became more comfortable with their growth. [Yes, I missed out on the gains]

After my (very expensive) lesson in KQ in 2012, I adjusted my investments to the principles that WB espouses. It's not easy to keep the faith when others are talking of "huge" gains made through speculation and one wonders why their portfolio is performing poorly in comparison.

Nevertheless, I have realized WB's method ensures a slow and steady growth in one's portfolio. And not all investments, even carefully selected, will pan out. Diversify but do not over-diversify. 5-10 Core Holdings. I chose 5 core holdings.

So I do miss out on "rapid growth" firms eg ARM (during the heydays), Equity, even Safaricom, CIC, etc BUT I also sleep at night.

I have ARM on my watch-list but I will only invest in it if I like what I see after I upcoming restructuring looks like.

Currently, I am sticking with (mostly) low debt:equity firms [adjusted for inventory/receivables] eg KK, KenRe (Sad Sad Sad #BringBackMwarania, Unga, banks, TPSEA, etc. Corporate Governance and Management are very important hence my disappointment at what's happening at KenRe.

Bottomline: ARM doesn't fit the bill. Yet.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#145 Posted : Friday, April 20, 2018 11:42:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
6 bob here we come
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Metch
#146 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:15:01 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/22/2015
Posts: 224
Location: Mombasa, Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
6 bob here we come


touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall
Start!
Ericsson
#147 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:21:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
6 bob here we come


touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall



Next 5.20
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
jgithige
#148 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:36:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/10/2014
Posts: 145
Location: Nairobi
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
6 bob here we come


touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall


Wanjiku panic causing this mess. I dont think the institutional and big investors who own about 85% of ARM are making these outrageous sales.
"Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
obiero
#149 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 11:41:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,520
Location: nairobi
jgithige wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
6 bob here we come


touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall


Wanjiku panic causing this mess. I dont think the institutional and big investors who own about 85% of ARM are making these outrageous sales.

Penny stock from a previously stellar investment. Hii NSE si rahisi

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#150 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 12:37:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Another bailout required!
I wonder which local banks are exposed to ARM
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#151 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 1:18:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Another bailout required!
I wonder which local banks are exposed to ARM


Stanbic
Africa Finance Corporation
Victoria Commercial Bank
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#152 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 1:38:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Another bailout required!
I wonder which local banks are exposed to ARM


Stanbic
Africa Finance Corporation
Victoria Commercial Bank
Any idea how large esp Stanbic.
I guess ARM going down would mean VCB's "zero NPLs" might no longer be the case!

Expanding too fast using debt is dangerous. [I am excluding banks coz their business is acquiring "debt" (deposits)]
KQ
ARM
Uchumi
Nakumatt
KPLC (Debt:Equity Conversion as a bailout by GoK)
KenGen (Debt:Equity Conversion as a bailout by GoK)
KK (under Segman acquired underperforming foreign assets - TZ, DRC and Ethiopia - using significant debt)
Airtel
EABL
HAFR
Unga (took on debt, and sold profitable Bullpak, to buy the piece of crap Ennsvalley from the Ndegwas. A disaster.)

and many more!

Low debt:equity firms:
Safaricom (has expanded using little debt vis-a-vis its cashflows)
BAT
KenRe (so far)
Jubilee
Nation (even with its recent woes affecting many media houses all over the world it is still profitable)

Good luck to ARM. I do hope it survives!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#153 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 1:39:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Another bailout required!
I wonder which local banks are exposed to ARM


Stanbic
Africa Finance Corporation
Victoria Commercial Bank
Any idea how large esp Stanbic.
I guess ARM going down would mean VCB's "zero NPLs" might no longer be the case!

Expanding too fast using debt is dangerous. [I am excluding banks coz their business is acquiring "debt" (deposits)]
KQ
ARM
Uchumi
Nakumatt
KPLC (Debt:Equity Conversion as a bailout by GoK)
KenGen (Debt:Equity Conversion as a bailout by GoK)
KK (under Segman acquired underperforming foreign assets - TZ, DRC and Ethiopia - using significant debt)
Airtel
EABL
HAFR
Unga (took on debt, and sold profitable Bullpak, to buy the piece of crap Ennsvalley from the Ndegwas. A disaster.)

and many more!

Low debt:equity firms:
Safaricom (has expanded using little debt vis-a-vis its cashflows)
BAT
KenRe (so far)
Jubilee
Nation (even with its recent woes affecting many media houses all over the world it is still profitable)

Good luck to ARM. I do hope it survives!


Stanbic Kenya loan is about ksh.3.5bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#154 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 2:28:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
I wonder if Stanbic has provided for the ARM loan. That's a huge exposure. On the other hand, Stanbic may have decent collateral and will be a-OK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
pops
#155 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 8:16:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/13/2006
Posts: 123
Anyone with some reliable info on what is happening? are these rumors or is there truth in them? Can't afford to go through another mumias!
xxxxx
#156 Posted : Thursday, May 10, 2018 8:43:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 503
pops wrote:
Anyone with some reliable info on what is happening? are these rumors or is there truth in them? Can't afford to go through another mumias!


Which rumours???
Spikes
#157 Posted : Friday, May 11, 2018 12:16:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
jgithige wrote:
Metch wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
6 bob here we come


touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall


Wanjiku panic causing this mess. I dont think the institutional and big investors who own about 85% of ARM are making these outrageous sales.


Capitulation has set in and 1 bob is on the way.Whales will begin dumping at monumental losses. The so called big investors will dump and run KQ style.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Ericsson
#158 Posted : Friday, May 11, 2018 6:51:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
Company dead
https://www.businessdail...555484-1mjxhd/index.html
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Pesa Nane
#159 Posted : Friday, May 11, 2018 10:11:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c


More drama loading...
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Ericsson
#160 Posted : Friday, May 11, 2018 11:32:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,696
Location: NAIROBI
Pesa Nane wrote:


More drama loading...


Don't say you weren't warned
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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