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KQ posts 2.035 billion PAT
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the deal
#41 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 9:21:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I will go long term on this one...lets say 1 year but i will reduce my holding in the course of the year...but for now i wont look at the price ticker for a month or so till the price stabilise...
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Kaffir
#42 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 3:03:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/8/2008
Posts: 77
the deal wrote:
I will go long term on this one...lets say 1 year but i will reduce my holding in the course of the year...but for now i wont look at the price ticker for a month or so till the price stabilise...


I agree with the strategy. I will also slowly work towards moving to other counters part of my investment i had made in KQ. Its underlying business, beneath the cloud of the fuel hedge gains, doesnt instill in me alot of confidence. But, will continue to hold some few shares in it, a reflection of the remaining confidence i have in the company.
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VituVingiSana
#43 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 6:54:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@guru

http://www.businessdaily.../-/uuysjsz/-/index.html

“We prefer a weak shilling since we earn in dollars” said the group financial director, Mr Alex Mbugua.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#44 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 7:12:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru

http://www.businessdaily.../-/uuysjsz/-/index.html

“We prefer a weak shilling since we earn in dollars” said the group financial director, Mr Alex Mbugua.

@vvs any potential lawsuit from the Doula crash???
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the deal
#45 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 7:21:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KQ has hedged at $76/barrel as from 31 March...not bad...but some stupit analysts expect a drop in full year profits due to the Ash...hope those oil prices stay up...plz get urslf a copy of business daily...the article is a must read...
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VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 9:35:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
KQ has hedged at $76/barrel as from 31 March...not bad...but some stupit analysts expect a drop in full year profits due to the Ash...hope those oil prices stay up...plz get urslf a copy of business daily...the article is a must read...


Lower oil prices are BETTER for KQ... hedges notwithstanding!!!

1) Only a certain portion is hedged so it is better to have LOW oil prices...
2) Lower oil prices means cheaper hedges going forward...
3) Cashflow benefits as well since hedges require cash to be used as security...
4) Lower oil prices means hedges not always needed...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Wa_ithaka
#47 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 7:30:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
The numbers are nothing to write home about especially the realised losses on the hdges, but I reckon KQ saving grace might be the rebounding European economies bringing tourists. WC will also help
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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2012
#48 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 9:47:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I'm just wondering where KQ's future growth will come from with other major airlines now looking at Africa. I think where they miss the point is on service delivery. You can use any aircraft but what you remember is the experience.

BBI will solve it :)
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the deal
#49 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 9:51:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@2011 sorry 2012 growth will come from africa...LOL...
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VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 9:56:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@2012 - Great point...

KQ has failed in service delivery... but it has succeeded in 2 respects:

- Extensive network vs other African airlines (except SAA & Ethiopian)
- No state support (SAA is subsidised. Ethiopian is vague on this)

Whereas KQ needs to shape up... the Kenya government needs to improve JKIA. Soon. Both SAA & Ethiopian fly to the huge N.American market but KQ cannot thanks to a lousy JKIA.

As for other major airlines, yes... but there is a future in intra-African growth which KQ can capture. Look at the new destinations in 2009 or (proposed) 2010... mostly African...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#51 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 1:48:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru
“We prefer a weak shilling since we earn in dollars” said the group financial director, Mr Alex Mbugua.


@VVS given this then recent movements in the Euro must be making you smile East to West because the Kenya shilling did trade at 82 against the dollar at some point today...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#52 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 2:54:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@guru
“We prefer a weak shilling since we earn in dollars” said the group financial director, Mr Alex Mbugua.


@VVS given this then recent movements in the Euro must be making you smile East to West because the Kenya shilling did trade at 82 against the dollar at some point today...


Not quite... After all I am paying more for petrol among other (important) imported goods!
I am not sure how this will affect KK coz when prices rise, the margins are squeezed...

I am surprised at the strength of the US$.

I think there is a lot of speculation going on for the US$ (not necessarily against the KES)... Many exporters will be happy.

As for KQ, yes it will benefit them but only if they can boost sales substantially!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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2012
#53 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 2:17:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
2012 wrote:
Forget today. The real test is from Monday with the orders placed today. I hope you all managed to place your sell orders @48 smile

whats your buying price 48 forget...we wont go that low...mayb 52 then we will power up..


@ the deal
I now think @48 I was being too pessimistic. Let's see... I think 44 is still higher than I'm willing to pay... See you there.

BBI will solve it :)
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the deal
#54 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 2:32:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@2012 maybe i will sell you at 44...but who knows maybe u are the one who will sell to someone @ 5 bob...LOL.
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qw25041985
#55 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 2:43:52 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
From 50.00 its a free fall. The more it fall the more it rises . I think this is the best stock investment rule that i love. LOL.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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Wa_ithaka
#56 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 3:14:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
qwxyz-where does your crystal ball tell you is the inflexion pt for KQ?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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the deal
#57 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 6:20:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Wa_ithaka wrote:
qwxyz-where does your crystal ball tell you is the inflexion pt for KQ?

i got my confidence back...KQ is oversold...a rally is imminent...
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Horton
#58 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 6:59:56 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
To all the so-called "buffett proteges" u do realize that Warren would NEVER buy into an airline stock right?
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VituVingiSana
#59 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 1:07:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Horton wrote:
To all the so-called "buffett proteges" u do realize that Warren would NEVER buy into an airline stock right?

Not quite. He did make money off USAir but also in the context of the USA, his position makes sense.

In Kenya/Africa, I believe that KQ has better potential than many other airlines. Note that KQ is the ONLY large private airline in sub-Saharan Africa. SAA & Ethiopian are govt owned &/or govt-subsidised.

KQ has 2 major problems:

1) GoK attitude as regards inadequate JKIA
2) Lack of access to African markets. KQ is not allowed into various markets by the countries to protect their lousy airlines.

P.S. Customer Service sucks at KQ too... I will bring that up at AGM...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Horton
#60 Posted : Friday, June 11, 2010 5:08:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
re: Warren admittedly made a mistake in buying USair. Describing it as a "bottomless pit".

The profit BRK made out of the company was purely coincidental with the sudden "emotional uptick" that investors faced at the time when WB was off-loading...to the obvious benefit of BRK.


http://finance.yahoo.com...buffetts-worst-mistakes

http://seekingalpha.com/...uffetts-biggest-mistake
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