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KQ posts 2.035 billion PAT
the deal
#31 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 4:26:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - Which 7 new destinations in 2010?

Juba (Announced)
Muscat (Announced)

Jeddah (You mentioned)
Rome (You mentioned)
Luanda (You mentioned)

Which others?

Lome is the other...the rest are yet to be announced...
cnn
#32 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 4:30:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@2012, 48 is very ambitious.
The wage bill did a lot of damage to the shareholders,the employees would better justify the higher salaries otherwise on 24th september at the AGM somebody should invite JM to give Naikunia lesson on the preferential pecking order in an organisation :customers,shareholders and then employees.
qw25041985
#33 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 7:59:00 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Let me tell you. The way KQ prices are playin on the graph form a very nice wave in technical analysis we call an elliot wave. With the fallin prices its at wave 2. Once start to power up my target is 60.00. Coz thisis when the trend will have the most momentum. And for those who arent yet in coop bank stock your time is running out. Get in now coz theres noway this share is going down there's nothing meriting that . Since it'll go up it'll break the 1 year high barrier and we know what that means. Up up up up up up.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 1:12:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - Which 7 new destinations in 2010?

Juba (Announced)
Muscat (Announced)

Jeddah (You mentioned)
Rome (You mentioned)
Luanda (You mentioned)

Which others?

Lome is the other...the rest are yet to be announced...

Lome or Rome... U know some of us have problems with the Ls & Rs of this world... ROR.. or is it LOL...

Kenya gets tons of Italian tourists so I guess Rome makes sense... Of course, many of them use Charter Services... but it makes better sense to fly Rome-Mombasa (Malindi airport is too small for 767s) then Rome-Nairobi-Malindi...

Wow, little Togo (if we are talking of Lome) is growing! Well, good news for the Ecobank guys!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#35 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 9:52:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
qw25041985 wrote:
@ guru267. U want to tell me that this counter willnt reach 66.00 inthe comin days . I thats being to pesimistic. Or hav u panic sold .LOL. I chose 66.00 (1 year high) coz if it crosses this price the next stop over'll b at 74.00. Surelly things cannot b that bad. What was the expectation 1 trillion. ???? LOL. LOL


@qw25041985 first of all why did you choose this name hard name??? smile

secondly if this counter moves up then that will be a clear inefficiency that one should take an oppurtunity to sell...

first of all the market was expecting a 7 EPS with a dividend of 2-3 bob or a dividend of 1 bob with bonus shares and that didnt come to pass...
secondly doesn't KQ earn most of its money in Euros?? if thats the case then the weakening euro will smash next years earnings ans think about the increase in capital expenditure for the new planes...

Basically if KQ made these gains with the Euro at 1.58 to the dollar think how much they will shrink with the Euro now trading at 1.21 and heading lower...

that said what incentive is their to send this counter up???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 10:11:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@guru - You are wrong... KQ's primary income/revenue is in US$ (expenses too...)

Africa is all US$ based
Kenya is KES (<10% of revenues)
UK-Kenya-UK is in £ but Kenya-UK-Kenya in $
AMS/Paris-Africa-AMS/Paris is € but Africa-Europe-Africa is US$
All of Asia is US$

I think Africa accounts for largest % of revenue, AMS/Paris #2, Asia #3, UK #4
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#37 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 11:06:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
OUCHHH 52 on the low 56 on the upside...theres nothing to support a move to 66...the chances of a quick evaporated on Friday...the earlier we accept the better...hedges and exchange rates are fickle...KQ cant depend on the them...
Gordon Gekko
#38 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 1:22:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
the deal wrote:
.....the earlier we accept the better...hedges and exchange rates are fickle...KQ cant depend on the them...

What about the falling interest rates? Wouldn't the fund managers move cash to stocks thereby making 66 possible? I'm looking for a branch to cling on, I came in a big way at 54.50 a few days before announcement.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 7:07:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
@GG - Did you buy to speculate or longer-term coz its going to be a bumpy ride!

1) KQ entered into Forex Hedges as well. They have gains as KES as plummeted vs US$. I hope the hedges were against US$!!!

2) Look at passenger numbers. 1H 2009 was really poor coz of GEC as well as August 2009 strike. The 2H passenger (& profit) numbers were much better.

3) Depending on what EPS you use... Using 4.40 (historic P/E of 12.5) is not not out of line with what Medium-Term Kenya Bonds are paying out.

4) NAV is around 43/- which is marginally up.

5) Finally some new planes in 2010. 2 Embraer 170 delivered in June 2010. Another 2 E-190s + 2 B737-300s on the way. This tells me that there will be renewed assault on regional (2-4 hour flight times) markets.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 7:09:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
The mistake KQ made was give a low, low dividend. 1/- (KES 462mn) is lousy when you have over 6,000mn (KES 6bn) in cash!!!

I am going to agitate for an Interim Dividend since the AGM will be held as usual later in the year probably after September 2010.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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