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KQ posts 2.035 billion PAT
sparkly
#21 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 12:30:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
gathinga wrote:
Not good at all

Turnover down 1b from prior period
Operating profit down 2.2b despite 5.7b reduction in fuel costs
Overheads up 3.4b (28%)


waaaii! No wonder the sell offs. How's the cashflow?
Life is short. Live passionately.
qw25041985
#22 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 12:38:48 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
I think we know how the passanger numbers look like. One one side kenya tourism board side that tourism was up 18% . One the otherside i hope the ash problem willnt affect KQ passanger numbers. So i also expect gud numbers.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
the deal
#23 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 2:11:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
qw25041985 wrote:
I think we know how the passanger numbers look like. One one side kenya tourism board side that tourism was up 18% . One the otherside i hope the ash problem willnt affect KQ passanger numbers. So i also expect gud numbers.

i remember sleeping @ a cold Oliver Tambo Airport in Joburg on 25-08-09 cause KQ staff were on strike...hope theyre happy now that they have the cheddar...we dont want BA type strikes...the Ash will definitely affect Q1 numbers...but take heart it was not peak season...@sparkly i expect the sell of to be short lived...then we will point higher again..theres still money to be made here...
gathinga
#24 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 2:59:44 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
the deal wrote:
qw25041985 wrote:
I think we know how the passanger numbers look like. One one side kenya tourism board side that tourism was up 18% . One the otherside i hope the ash problem willnt affect KQ passanger numbers. So i also expect gud numbers.

i remember sleeping @ a cold Oliver Tambo Airport in Joburg on 25-08-09 cause KQ staff were on strike...hope theyre happy now that they have the cheddar...we dont want BA type strikes...the Ash will definitely affect Q1 numbers...but take heart it was not peak season...@sparkly i expect the sell of to be short lived...then we will point higher again..theres still money to be made here...

despite these despicable results, the market has treated KQ with kid gloves over the years since 2003, I expect a sell off followed quickly by rapid restocking and upward traction
2012
#25 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 3:19:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Forget today. The real test is from Monday with the orders placed today. I hope you all managed to place your sell orders @48 smile

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 3:20:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Compare Apples to Apples:

Operating Results: 1H was 162mn & 2H was 1.84bn (11x) so 2H was very good for them.

I am ignoring fuel hedges for now... there is much more to that...

If KQ can pull off a similar Operating Performance (1H 2009 had strikes which affected ENTIRE network of KQ whereas Ash cloud affected only Europe) in 1H 2010 then there are good tidings.

The results are NOT as good as I expected (& I am a little disappointed) but compared to many other airlines KQ has done well... so will it gain traction in 2010?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 3:27:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
KQ took delivery of 2 E-170s, will take 2 E-190s during the year as well as 2 737-300s...

This seems to be for an increased presence in the African markets (4 hours or less)...

The Embraers may be for even shorter journeys 2 hours or less... so does that mean more regional destinations (starting with Juba)?

Apparently, KQ has not given up on Malindi & Lamu but are faced with poor airport conditions at these locations... They need ATRs not Embraers for these airports!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#28 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 3:44:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@VVS 2010 looks good but be worried of oil prices...i think they will hit 90-100 bob/barrel as the global economy recovers...theyre lauching 7 new routes i.e Luanda,Jeddah and Rome...i think mngmnt need to reduce those salaries and allowances theyre costly..
the deal
#29 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 3:50:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
2012 wrote:
Forget today. The real test is from Monday with the orders placed today. I hope you all managed to place your sell orders @48 smile

whats your buying price 48 forget...we wont go that low...mayb 52 then we will power up..
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 4:14:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@thedeal - Which 7 new destinations in 2010?

Juba (Announced)
Muscat (Announced)

Jeddah (You mentioned)
Rome (You mentioned)
Luanda (You mentioned)

Which others?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#31 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 4:26:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - Which 7 new destinations in 2010?

Juba (Announced)
Muscat (Announced)

Jeddah (You mentioned)
Rome (You mentioned)
Luanda (You mentioned)

Which others?

Lome is the other...the rest are yet to be announced...
cnn
#32 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 4:30:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@2012, 48 is very ambitious.
The wage bill did a lot of damage to the shareholders,the employees would better justify the higher salaries otherwise on 24th september at the AGM somebody should invite JM to give Naikunia lesson on the preferential pecking order in an organisation :customers,shareholders and then employees.
qw25041985
#33 Posted : Friday, June 04, 2010 7:59:00 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Let me tell you. The way KQ prices are playin on the graph form a very nice wave in technical analysis we call an elliot wave. With the fallin prices its at wave 2. Once start to power up my target is 60.00. Coz thisis when the trend will have the most momentum. And for those who arent yet in coop bank stock your time is running out. Get in now coz theres noway this share is going down there's nothing meriting that . Since it'll go up it'll break the 1 year high barrier and we know what that means. Up up up up up up.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 1:12:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - Which 7 new destinations in 2010?

Juba (Announced)
Muscat (Announced)

Jeddah (You mentioned)
Rome (You mentioned)
Luanda (You mentioned)

Which others?

Lome is the other...the rest are yet to be announced...

Lome or Rome... U know some of us have problems with the Ls & Rs of this world... ROR.. or is it LOL...

Kenya gets tons of Italian tourists so I guess Rome makes sense... Of course, many of them use Charter Services... but it makes better sense to fly Rome-Mombasa (Malindi airport is too small for 767s) then Rome-Nairobi-Malindi...

Wow, little Togo (if we are talking of Lome) is growing! Well, good news for the Ecobank guys!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#35 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 9:52:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
qw25041985 wrote:
@ guru267. U want to tell me that this counter willnt reach 66.00 inthe comin days . I thats being to pesimistic. Or hav u panic sold .LOL. I chose 66.00 (1 year high) coz if it crosses this price the next stop over'll b at 74.00. Surelly things cannot b that bad. What was the expectation 1 trillion. ???? LOL. LOL


@qw25041985 first of all why did you choose this name hard name??? smile

secondly if this counter moves up then that will be a clear inefficiency that one should take an oppurtunity to sell...

first of all the market was expecting a 7 EPS with a dividend of 2-3 bob or a dividend of 1 bob with bonus shares and that didnt come to pass...
secondly doesn't KQ earn most of its money in Euros?? if thats the case then the weakening euro will smash next years earnings ans think about the increase in capital expenditure for the new planes...

Basically if KQ made these gains with the Euro at 1.58 to the dollar think how much they will shrink with the Euro now trading at 1.21 and heading lower...

that said what incentive is their to send this counter up???
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 10:11:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@guru - You are wrong... KQ's primary income/revenue is in US$ (expenses too...)

Africa is all US$ based
Kenya is KES (<10% of revenues)
UK-Kenya-UK is in £ but Kenya-UK-Kenya in $
AMS/Paris-Africa-AMS/Paris is € but Africa-Europe-Africa is US$
All of Asia is US$

I think Africa accounts for largest % of revenue, AMS/Paris #2, Asia #3, UK #4
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#37 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 11:06:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
OUCHHH 52 on the low 56 on the upside...theres nothing to support a move to 66...the chances of a quick evaporated on Friday...the earlier we accept the better...hedges and exchange rates are fickle...KQ cant depend on the them...
Gordon Gekko
#38 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 1:22:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
the deal wrote:
.....the earlier we accept the better...hedges and exchange rates are fickle...KQ cant depend on the them...

What about the falling interest rates? Wouldn't the fund managers move cash to stocks thereby making 66 possible? I'm looking for a branch to cling on, I came in a big way at 54.50 a few days before announcement.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 7:07:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@GG - Did you buy to speculate or longer-term coz its going to be a bumpy ride!

1) KQ entered into Forex Hedges as well. They have gains as KES as plummeted vs US$. I hope the hedges were against US$!!!

2) Look at passenger numbers. 1H 2009 was really poor coz of GEC as well as August 2009 strike. The 2H passenger (& profit) numbers were much better.

3) Depending on what EPS you use... Using 4.40 (historic P/E of 12.5) is not not out of line with what Medium-Term Kenya Bonds are paying out.

4) NAV is around 43/- which is marginally up.

5) Finally some new planes in 2010. 2 Embraer 170 delivered in June 2010. Another 2 E-190s + 2 B737-300s on the way. This tells me that there will be renewed assault on regional (2-4 hour flight times) markets.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 7:09:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
The mistake KQ made was give a low, low dividend. 1/- (KES 462mn) is lousy when you have over 6,000mn (KES 6bn) in cash!!!

I am going to agitate for an Interim Dividend since the AGM will be held as usual later in the year probably after September 2010.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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