The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.
KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more
KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.
There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total
My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett