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Investors Lounge
karanjakinuthia
#381 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 6:50:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
If neither the public sector nor the private sector are spending in the backdrop of capital outlfows by foreign investors, then how will the Club Med (southern Europe) nations grow?

"ROME—The government of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi approved budget cuts Tuesday of up to €24 billion ($29.7 billion) over the next two years in an effort to shore up public finances.

The cuts come as other European governments try to reduce public spending in response to the growing levels of sovereign debt.

Spain last week approved measures valued at €15 billion for this year in an effort to trim a budget deficit equal to 11% of gross domestic product. Britain's new coalition government, which outlined $9.05 billion in budget cuts on Monday, plans to unveil further cuts next month...."

Read more:

http://online.wsj.com/ar...siness_EuropeNewsBucket

karanjakinuthia
#382 Posted : Thursday, May 27, 2010 6:40:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Hat tip to a Top Dog.

"Listed communications firm Safaricom Limited has posted a 37 per cent increase it s profits before tax for the period ended March 31, 2010.

The firm recorded Sh20.9 billion compared to Sh15.3 billion it posted in the previous year, once again bringing into focus its profits margin.

Over the past month, the public discourse has been centered along the firms’ performance, which had been a subject of new industry regulations.

According to chief executive officer Mr Michael Joseph, the results were a reflection of the heavy investments that they put in to develop their network..."

Read more:

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/igoe2pz/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#383 Posted : Thursday, May 27, 2010 7:08:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Greece is the writing on the wall for highly indebted nations. Even after having been spared tax increases, Italians will be out in the streets aping the Greeks.

With a report on the Financial Times as to a review of $630 bn of Eurozone bond holdings by the Chinese government, the Americans cannot draw comfort as their turn on the hot seat is sure to come. The Chinese have been paring their holdings of U.S. debt to rank second to Japan.

"MILAN, Italy — Italy's largest union, the CGIL, on Wednesday threatened a general strike for June to protest against the government's austerity measures aimed at stabilising public finances.

Secretary General Guglielmo Epifani said he would ask the union's management committee to approve the strike, Italian news agencies reported.

"I will ask the management committee to call for a general strike with regional demonstrations between now and the end of June," he said. The committee meets in early June...."

Read more:

http://www.google.com/ho...dQfsNjqlOLo-5j71ghw6hJw

Scubidu
#384 Posted : Friday, May 28, 2010 8:19:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Coinupdate.com reports that prices at which the Greek Central Bank is selling one ounce gold equivalents are as high as $1,700 (40% over spot), and prices on the black markets are even higher.

The punchline, as Athens slowly returns to a forced gold standard: " A popular spot for street vendors to sell their coins is near the Athens Stock Exchange. There the traders wait for citizens to bring payments received from unloading their paper assets like stocks and bonds."

That's good - downtown Manhattan close to the NYSE has some free space for gold vendors to set up shop as well, they just need to push some of the frontrunning/collocation boxes off to the side. And in other rhetorical ruminations, is it safe to say that the last days of the fiat experiment are among us now that people themselves are bypassing the government and enforcing their own gold standard?

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com...s-gold-price-1700-ounce

Apple is now worth more than Mister Softee. About $3 billion more.

Read more:

http://www.ritholtz.com/...valuable-than-microsoft/
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#385 Posted : Sunday, May 30, 2010 7:51:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Southern Europe is effectively in a straightjacket of low to negative growth, higher taxes and high unemployment. Margaret Thatcher once remarked, "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money."

"The downgrade, from AAA to AA+, was prompted by Fitch's view that Spain's growth will be hampered by a €15bn (£12.7bn) austerity package as it attempts to lower its deficit.

Fitch made the announcement after European markets had closed, but the news drove the Dow Jones in the US down 1pc to 10148.

"The downgrade reflects Fitch's assessment that the process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium-term," said Brian Coulton, Fitch's head of EMEA sovereign ratings...."

Read more:

http://www.telegraph.co....ains-credit-rating.html

karanjakinuthia
#386 Posted : Monday, May 31, 2010 6:31:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Collateral damage from the European Debt Crisis. If you have family or friends working in the public sector in Europe or the United States, inform them that their job security is tenuous.

"Remittances from the Kenyan diaspora will maintain a downward trend as the debt crisis spreads among European nations, market analysts have said.

“There has been a significant drop in remittances from the European area in the last few months, we don’t know when the trend will reverse,” said Frida Nzilani of Sky Forex Bureau, an with MoneyGram and Western Union.

Europe, which accounts for 27 per cent of the total remittances from the diaspora, is reeling under the weight of huge domestic debts...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/luthlc/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#387 Posted : Wednesday, June 02, 2010 6:25:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A well written article on a rarely discussed subject of intra-Africa trade.

"East and West Africa may be on the same continent, just five hours flight from each other, and with complementary economies that would make it natural enough for a high level of interaction.

But, in reality, they are virtually cut off from one another.

With a combined population of two-fifths of a billion, and well-matched resources, East and West Africa have some of the lowest trade between them of any regions in the world, according to a UN report, with just one carrier running costly and often half-empty flights between the regions, no road route, and negligible traffic between the two continental hubs....."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/vjurdi/-/index.html

karanjakinuthia
#388 Posted : Thursday, June 03, 2010 6:20:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Dear Friends,

No two eras are created equal. Nevertheless, man’s reaction to socio-economic events is almost always identical. Booms are heralded as new paradigms in society whilst busts imbue fear and depression. I have unpacked the 1931 Currency Crisis with a view of providing historical markers to the unfolding European Debt Crisis.

The chronology below covers the years and events prior to and leading up to the 1931 Currency Crisis. It shall be disseminated in two parts:


1919
The peaking of the commodity bull market that had begun in 1907. The Dow Jones hits an all time high of 120.


1920
The Dow Jones Index bottoms at 64 points.


1922
Britain chooses to increase taxes and reduce money supply to combat recession whilst Germany grapples with war repatriations imposed on it by the Allies after World War I.
President Harding expresses concern over the number of foreign bond issues in the United States.


1923
Germany defaults on its war repatriations. Adolf Hitler is jailed for 5 years after his uprising fails.
The infamous Weimar hyperinflation rages as confidence in the Papiermark collapses.


1924
Germany issues the new Reichmark, backed by gold and real estate to replace the Rentenmark. The latter replaces the Papiermark as an intermediate currency to restore confidence.
European nations ravaged by inflation return to the gold standard. France adopts a gold Franc, Austria – a silver based Schilling, Germany – a gold Retenmark and Russia - a gold based Chervonetz.
U.S. gold reserves are at the highest level in history, nearly 50% of the world’s official reserves.
Britain and France advocate for forgiveness of war debts worth $11 billion by the United States. They succeed in obtaining partial forgiveness
The Exports Plan is formulated to rebuild Europe. Its member economies recover leading to an attraction of investment.


1925
Britain returns to the gold standard.


1926
The U.S. emerges as the money centre of the world, hosting bonds from 65 nations. Europe has majority, Central and South America rank in second. The defaults of 1931 wreck the debt issued from these two regions.


1927
Europe appeals to the United States to lower interest rates in order for capital to flow to its borders, easing its ability to service war debts.


1928
Stock markets in Britain, Germany, Belgium and Switzerland hit their peak.


1929
Herbert Hoover takes over as President of the United States.
The Dow Jones Index closes at an all time high of 380. A bear market then ensues that is remembered throughout history.
Herbert Hoover institutes tax cuts, a public building program and easy credit from the Federal Reserve to shore up the economy. In addition, he obtains commitments from industry not to cut wages.


1930
Companies begin to show declines in earnings.
Unemployment in South America spawns political upheaval.
The Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act is enacted in the U.S., sparking a trade war around the world. A direct result is exacerbating the inability of foreign nations to pay off debt.
Banking failures in the Midwest States pick up pace as a result of declining commodity values and real-estate backed loans.
At the onset of August, the Midwest and Southern States are plagued by a severe drought. The tribulations there are captured in John Steinbeck’s classic “The Grapes of Wrath”.
Whilst the stock markets tumbles, President Cleveland, in a speech to the United States Congress, delivers the words:
"At times like the present, when the evils of unsound finance threaten us, the speculator may anticipate a harvest gathered from the misfortune of others, the capitalist may protect himself by hoarding or may even find profit in the fluctuations of values; but the wage earner - the first to be injured by a depreciated currency - is practically defenseless. He relies for work upon the ventures of confident and contented capital. This failing him, his condition is without alleviation, for he can neither prey on the misfortunes of others nor hoard his labor."


1931 (Currency Crisis)
Distress in the bond market begins with the default of a Detroit municipal bond.
Hoarding of gold and speculation in gold mining shares becomes prevalent.
Germany and Austria formulate a customs agreement to ramp up trade between the two debt ridden nations. France, economic cornerstone of Europe, vehemently opposes the move calling it a violation of The Versailles Treaty. Britain joins the protestations.
The French turn the screws on Germany and Austria by redeeming short term debt bills.
Credit – Ansait Bank of Austria collapses causing severe distress in the banking sector. The National Bank of Austria runs out of foreign exchange prompting the nation to appeal to France, Britain and the United States.
No monies are forthcoming from France as it wants a repeal of the German – Austrian customs agreement. Britain is more accommodating, advancing Austria with 4.5 million Pounds.
This move vexes the French who begin liquidation of their Sterling holdings.
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rated to repel capital that seeks safe harbor in the United States. Conversely, Central European nations hike interest rates to attract capital. Both actions fail to stem the tide.
German banks come under siege following statements by the German Finance Minister that the Austrian banking crisis would hit its institutions.
President Hoover proposes a debt moratorium for Germany to which 15 governments with the exception of France agree to. Only upon the threat of isolation do the French co-operate.
The Banking Crisis continues unabated in Europe leading to closures in Hungary, Germany, Austria and Eastern Europe.
President Hoover declares a debt freeze on short-term German liabilities.
Uncertainty hovers over Britain as the French begin withdrawing gold out of British banks. Other nations follow France’s actions causing distress for Austria, Germany and Eastern Europe. The Bank of England attempts to stem the flow by increasing interest rates but to no effect. Furthermore, the BOE requests a $650 million loan from U.S. banks. Lastly, the government adopts austerity measures to curtail public expenditure.
A month later, Britain abandons the gold standard, by and large defaulting on its foreign debt. These actions by Britain along with the Debt Crisis in Europe and South America cement the depression.
The German Bourse closes from June 13th to September 3rd while the Amsterdam market cancels all trades that took place on September 21st after a horrendous plunge.
Next in line to face a crisis of confidence is the United States. Rumours of an abandonment of the gold standard results in withdrawal of bullion from the Federal Reserve and banks. A hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve does not instill confidence in the markets.
Trade volumes declined sharply. Merchants were unable to effectively price their goods due to extreme currency volatility.


1932
A hearing by the Senate Finance Committee obtains information regarding the extent of the debt crisis. All 57 issues that default are from South American governments.
Bank failures continue in earnest prompting gold hoarding.
Chile and Greece abandon the gold standard, unsettling an already fragile forex market.
Jitters over rising deficits in the U.S. cause France and other European countries to withdraw gold from the New York Federal Reserve.
Seven nations meet in Switzerland to agree on reduction of German repatriation payments from $64 billion to $712 million.
The lowest close in the Dow Jones is achieved on 8th July, 1932 at 4112, a 89% decline from 1929.

Thank you for listening.

Sources:
The Greatest Bull Market in History by Martin Armstrong
http://www.wikipedia.com

karanjakinuthia
#389 Posted : Thursday, June 03, 2010 7:21:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
This phase in the commodity bull market will be characterised by increased participation of institutional money. The likely duration for this is 2008 to 2012. The last phase (2013 - 2015) will herald the entry of the retail investor.

"The US’s second-biggest public pension fund is poised to make its first investment in commodities as a hedge against the risk of rising inflation, in the latest sign of growing investor appetite for raw materials.

The proposal by the California State Teachers’ Retirement System comes as US federal commodities regulators explore whether to impose limits on institutional investors’ exposure to raw material markets...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-91c8-00144feab49a.html

karanjakinuthia
#390 Posted : Saturday, June 05, 2010 5:53:04 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The Euro was beaten with an ugly stick after the confessional by Hungary's new government. Former resistance level of 1.205 gave way like butter to a hot knife as markets were once more reminded of the grim days of Lehman. Should the Euro be unable to get back up above 1.205, its next magnet is 1.17.

"Pessimistic words on the economy from senior officials of Hungary's newly elected ruling party plunged the euro to a four-year low Friday, and refocused concern on a region that European Union leaders had hoped was recovering from the wounds it suffered in the early days of the financial crisis.

Lajos Kosa, vice president of the right-leaning Fidesz party, which won an overwhelming victory in the April elections, said Thursday that Hungary was in a Greek-style sovereign-debt crisis. And Friday, the prime minister's spokesman, Peter Szijjarto, roiled markets by saying the economic situation is severe and that Hungary isn't likely to meet budget-deficit targets prescribed by the International Monetary Fund...."

Read more:

http://online.wsj.com/ar...html?mod=wsj_india_main

karanjakinuthia
#391 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 7:34:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
MUST READ! The demise of the West due to debt.

"The magnitude of current private and government debt, coupled with massive unfunded contingent liabilities for promises of future services to their citizens, will prove to be impossible for many nations to fund. Massive inflation in the money supply will become the preferred vehicle to deflect the default monster and will result in vastly devalued currencies and price inflation as a prelude to default. Such action will be a desperate attempt to buy time to stave off the inevitable and will result in social unrest caused by persons whose comfortable lifestyle and elevated standard of living is about to disintegrate before their very eyes.

'Sovereign Debt' was once only a phrase found in the arcane prose of economists writing in academic journals. Internet blogs started carrying commentary on the subject after the near-death experience of many large banks but only in the last few months has the mainstream media tuned into the issue of sovereign debt. Quite simply, they could not ignore the omnipresent financial clouds any longer...."

Read more:

http://www.resourceinves...;cmpid=resourceinvestor

karanjakinuthia
#392 Posted : Sunday, June 06, 2010 7:53:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
A currency is the common share of a nation. It derives its value from the productive capacity of its people and the financial management of government. A heavily indebted nation largely depends on the "kindness of strangers". Once foreign investors question the ability of a government to meet its commitments as in the case of Greece, its currency suffers a crisis of confidence.

The U.S. Dollar is no long-term safe haven.

"The federal government is now $13 trillion in the red, the Treasury Department will announce Wednesday -- marking the first time the government has sunk that far into debt.

Lawmakers and staffers on Capitol Hill have been awaiting the milestone with macabre fascination for more than a week, and its arrival is likely to complicate efforts for Democrats as they try to pass several emergency spending bills this month....."

Read more:

http://www.washingtontim...-debt-hits-13-trillion/

karanjakinuthia
#393 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 7:41:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
67% of turnover spent on wages! The new buzz word in Europe is austerity, football teams better get with the programme.

"An annual report of football finance has shown that Premier League wages have risen 11% to a total of £1.3 billion.

With Portsmouth entering administration last season and fears over the financial future of many top clubs, there is genuine concern as the 20 teams last season spent, on average, 67% of their turnover on wages.The report, by business analysts Deloitte, shows that clubs spent £132 million more in 2009-10 than in 2008-09..."

Read more:

http://soccernet.espn.go...sec=england&cc=3888

karanjakinuthia
#394 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 6:42:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
"It's sleek fast, modern and likely to prove an enduring momento of the 2010 World Cup. We are talking about the high speed Gautrain that is poised to speed passengers from A to B under the traffic and buildings of Gauteng. Today (Tuesday) the authorities are going to launch the Gautrain just in time for the greatest soccer show on earth. We climbed aboard to find how a dream became a high speed reality

Well, with the launch of the Gautrain, arriving just in time for the greatest soccer show on earth, Jack Van de Merwe joins me now in studio. but before we get into our conversation with Jack, Celeste Baliraj an Bianca Barnard, employees here join us as well Celeste and Bianca amongst those to have taken the ride this morning...."

Read more:

http://www.abndigital.co...d-interviews/554460.htm

brendar7639
#395 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 11:02:52 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/9/2010
Posts: 1
What's up everyone, I'm new to the forum and just wanted to say hey. Hopefully I posted this in the right section!



Watch Free Movies Online
karanjakinuthia
#396 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:44:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
NIGERIAN SPAM OF THE YEAR

From: Dudley Caruthers Esq (Barrister at Law)

Subject: BP Related Agreement Entitlement

E-mail:

Dear Friend

I am the private solicitor for Mr Tony Hayward, the esteemed Chairman and Chief executive of British Petroleum. My client has various personal and family related holdings of BP stock and options. Due to his faithful long standing service to BP the total value of his holdings amounts to in excess of 100m pounds sterling. Mr Heywood is a British citizen but it has been my sorrowful duty to advise him that his personal and family wealth is at great risk of being wrongfully confiscated by US authorities acting extra-territorially under special powers authorised by the US government and with the secret consent of a supine UK political and legal establishment.

Mr Heywood is also at great risk of losing his personal liberty and becoming another victim of the long reach of the politicised USA legal system in the same way that was meted out to other British subjects including, most egregiously, the 3 bankers from Natwest (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NatWest_Three). Unfortunately I am not able to advise or assist him in this regard as my expertise lies in the structuring of executive compensation schemes and the management of private endowments; but I am horrified at the witch hunt being perpetrated on my client by the Obama administration and its agencies and I will do all that I can to safeguard my client's financial position.

I am reaching out to you as it has become clear that Mr Hayward's holdings must be liquidated and held in trust for the benefit of himself and his family beyond USA or UK legal jurisdiction. Exercise of his options and liquidation of his stock is now complete but it has proven necessary to assign title to the ensuing 100m pounds of cash to a person such as yourself who resides in a non recognised tax haven country and where there is a sound basis for UK and USA authorities to recognise the legal validity of local agreements. The taxation and legal recognition agreements between your jurisdiction of Australia and those of UK and USA present a unique opportunity to protect these assets whilst providing you with a benefit in accordance with your key role. I am a keen reader of your blog and greatly admire your economic and political acumen. I immediately recognised that, at this hour of great urgency and risk to my client, you are the man who is capable of securing protection of the Hayward estate.

It is with this in mind that I wish you to consider the possibility that you and I (as Mr. Hayward's agent) have previously entered into verbal agreements providing for you to become the beneficiary of all Mr Hayward's BP stock and stock option benefits upon their occurring a significant "force majeure" event affecting my client and British Petroleum. It is my legal interpretation that such an event occurred with the sinking of Deepwater Horizon and that title to Mr Hayward's rights and holdings transferred at that time.

If you do recollect our agreement then it is now necessary to transfer the 80m pounds of cash proceeds to yourself which are after payment of a 20m pound advisory and arrangement fee for the services rendered by my firm. Transfer of the cash will only occur to you upon you executing the correct documents which are (i) the force majeure beneficiary transfer agreement (ii) a statutory declaration that the force majeure beneficiary transfer agreement was properly entered into as a verbal agreement in January 2002 and (iii) details of your Australian bank account including account name, password and account number and most critically an agreement between yourself and myself as trustee for Hayward related entities granting the trustee the right to claw back 50% (40m pounds) of the transfer at any time and requiring you to escrow the 40m pounds in a separate account.

I sincerely trust that you will search your memory and recollect that we met in Sydney in 2002 and recollect the nature of our agreement.

Please contact me at my firm's Nigerian subsidiary's offices at the address below such that we can act with the speed required of us.

Source:

http://brontecapital.blo...spam-email-of-week.html

mukiha
#397 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:50:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@karanjakinuthia
I grant you this: you have stamina! You have kept this thread running since October 09. Hongera bwana!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
karanjakinuthia
#398 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:54:03 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
In a global village, there are no local problems. You have witnessed the "butterfly effect" of the crisis in Dubai which triggered the downgrading of Greek debt, thereafter, Europe proper came into focus.

Players, for instance, in the horticulture sector are caught between the sales of produce denominated in a weakening Euro and purchases of freight services in a strengthening Dollar.

"Some thoughts on the fiscal austerity mania now sweeping Europe: is anyone thinking seriously about how this affects the rest of the world, the US included?

We do have a framework for thinking about this issue: the Mundell-Fleming model. And according to that model (does anyone still learn this stuff?), fiscal contraction in one country under floating exchange rates is in fact contractionary for the world as a whole. The reason is that fiscal contraction leads to lower interest rates, which leads to currency depreciation, which improves the trade balance of the contracting country — partly offsetting the fiscal contraction, but also imposing a contraction on the rest of the world. (Rudi Dornbusch’s 1976 Brookings Paper went through all this.)...."

Read more:

http://krugman.blogs.nyt...-of-european-austerity/

karanjakinuthia
#399 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 8:03:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Mukiha. Thank you for your sentiments. The blog on Facebook began in November of 2008.

We live in an era that is marked by a transition of economic supremacy from the West to the East. Such periods are marked by heightened volatility in financial markets.

Keep reading and contributing.



karanjakinuthia
#400 Posted : Sunday, June 13, 2010 11:31:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Like the Sword of Damocles, the OTC derivatives markets hangs over the financial world.

"One of the biggest risks to the world's financial health is the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market. It's complex, it's unregulated, and it ought to be of concern to world leaders that its notional value is 20 times the size of the world economy. But traders rule the roost -- and as much as risk managers and regulators might want to limit that risk, they lack the power or knowledge to do so.

A quadrillion is a big number: 1,000 times a trillion. Yet according to one of the world's leading derivatives experts, Paul Wilmott, who holds a doctorate in applied mathematics from Oxford University (and whose speaking voice sounds eerily like John Lennon's), $1.2 quadrillion is the so-called notional value of the worldwide derivatives market. To put that in perspective, the world's annual gross domestic product is between $50 trillion and $60 trillion."

See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/99t8PV

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