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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:Banks always have provisions for bad debts. This is an important thing to remember here because the share price will not depend on any fundamentals in the near term, it will depend on how banks choose to deal with their shares.
A decision to cut losses and get whatever cash they can will will lead to a massive selloff that will drive down share price.
Banks need cash and they are in the business of selling debts every day not sitting and waiting for shares to appreciate. I bet some bankers would be willing to take 50% or less of what they put in if they could get the cash today rather than wait 5 years and hope to recover the whole amount. As soon as serious buyers show up this price will tank precipitously. I hope I am wrong but a steep drop is coming. I am calling a sub 5/= by end of January 2018. Remember that the banks do not hold the shares as banks but via KQ Lenders Co Ltd with Dr Martin Oduor as the chosen bank representative.. The said company is run by directors via resolutions.. I would love to see any resolution to sell KQ stock at KES 5 while they bought at KES 8.52.. Further the main banks can opt to buy out the leaner ones to stabilize the price.. These are not sheepish shareholders with no clue of what they are doing.. January is not far.. We await your prophesy to materialize
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2010 Posts: 518 Location: kandara, Murang'a
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obiero wrote:gatoho wrote:I got in at 3.8, where am I now Only two trades occurred at sub KES 10.. Or you mean that you have been holding KQ shares Yes been holding got in at 3.8, had planned to sell at 6, got greedy when 6 came too soon Foresight..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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gatoho wrote:obiero wrote:gatoho wrote:I got in at 3.8, where am I now Only two trades occurred at sub KES 10.. Or you mean that you have been holding KQ shares Yes been holding got in at 3.8, had planned to sell at 6, got greedy when 6 came too soon Sit tight and prepare to buy more so as to mitigate massive dilution. Incase you are not ready for the extra purchase via Open Offer, I suggest you sell now but at a significant loss. Meanwhile, imagine that the bugger who bought 3,100 shares at KES 2.1 on trade resumption sold out yesterday at KES 11.35 or today at KES 12
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.
After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.
4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share.
4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/-
1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-
So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.
The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?
Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.
There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms?
Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?
I wish KQ all the best. Thanks @ vvs for your input. This is the basis on which we should question the Open Offer and the much dramatized 1:4 share consolidation. In my opinion this stock will trade between 5-8.55 after the dust has settled. As long as all information pertaining to KQ lenders company lock-in period remains uncertain anything related to stock volatility can happen. @spikes Never let anyone think on your behalf. The aim of reading is to reduce or eliminate ignorance.. There's no lock in period for KQ Lenders Co Ltd.. As for the 1.5B for the Open Offer, why would existing shareholders expect same number of shares after consolidation without building up their equity contribution.. That sum raised would be pre-emptive defense of proportional ownership, not a figure that can buy a plane or even a significant part of it.. Actually Michael Joseph has clearly stated that 100% of the Open Offer sum shall be used to further settle debt, which is a wise thing.. Finally, if 2.1m shares traded at KES 12.5 yesterday and all the major shareholders bought at KES 8.52, what on earth will drive the share down to KES 5 Elder, I've got you. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5  Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets Hehe.. I accept the award @obiero How do you value stocks? Fundamentals or speculative information? Obiero is buy low sell high and move on I have a mixture of both strategies but I prefer speculation based on inside knowledge via the exchange bar Fair value KES 12.5 when factoring-in the Open Offer.. Now is absolutely the wrong time to sell and not the most opportune time to buy for existing shareholders.. Though existing shareholders with hearts of steel may accumulate sub KES 22 I am tempted to buy at current price but I shall exercise restraint. Expect a continuous trip upwards to KES 18 upto release of the Open Offer circular followed by a rapid fall down immediately afterwards.. How low it will go shall be anyone's guess, but mine remains KES 12.5
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5 Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets Hehe.. I accept the award @obiero How do you value stocks? Fundamentals or speculative information? Obiero is buy low sell high and move on I have a mixture of both strategies but I prefer speculation based on inside knowledge via the exchange bar Fair value KES 12.5 when factoring-in the Open Offer.. Now is absolutely the wrong time to sell and not the most opportune time to buy for existing shareholders.. Though existing shareholders with hearts of steel may accumulate sub KES 22 I am tempted to buy at current price but I shall exercise restraint. Expect a continuous trip upwards to KES 18 upto release of the Open Offer circular followed by a rapid fall down immediately afterwards.. How low it will go shall be anyone's guess, but mine remains KES 12.5 @ obiero today you've given solid analysis. Keep the fire blazing. Though kes 18 is a pipedream. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:the deal wrote:obiero wrote:1 trading day to lift-off.. Mark these words, minimum KES 8.52, maximum intra day KES 14. Fair value KES 12.5 Obiero for the title of Supporter of the Year... KQ should give you free tickets Hehe.. I accept the award @obiero How do you value stocks? Fundamentals or speculative information? Obiero is buy low sell high and move on I have a mixture of both strategies but I prefer speculation based on inside knowledge via the exchange bar Fair value KES 12.5 when factoring-in the Open Offer.. Now is absolutely the wrong time to sell and not the most opportune time to buy for existing shareholders.. Though existing shareholders with hearts of steel may accumulate sub KES 22 I am tempted to buy at current price but I shall exercise restraint. Expect a continuous trip upwards to KES 18 upto release of the Open Offer circular followed by a rapid fall down immediately afterwards.. How low it will go shall be anyone's guess, but mine remains KES 12.5 @ obiero today you've given solid analysis. Keep the fire blazing. Though kes 18 is a pipedream. Let's talk about this same post on 08.12.2017
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:maka wrote:https://www.ft.com/content/2784d0fc-6dad-3a7a-aeb4-f3087c32b619
Strike still on now to that add CDL strike...noma. God is speaking directly to the management at KQ. I would be glad if I was faced with such a reckless act at this time.. Its now or never.. Time to bring out the stone face Who should wear a stone face? The one is who mismanaging or the one demanding change? The notice is not a reckless act, Ngunze is being reckless by releasing results propped up by proceeds of asset sales and threatening to stop sale of tickets. It is a very foolish gesture. They went and discussed immediately with the god fathers how to counter the strike. They do not care about the interests of other stakeholders when their's are being taken care of? @Ngunze has indeed dissatisfied me on this latest release.. He should have cancelled the ticket sales for the effective start date of industrial action and announced no-pay for days down. Its reckless to keep selling whereby notice to down tools has already been issued by the two large unions Stopping sale of tickets at any point is like digging your own grave. This is a very reckless statement and it goes along way to prove how incompetent this fellow is. In fact, KALPA's notice was carefully worded to protect the safety reputation of the Airline. I have fingered the general staff at the airline for being nonchalant and the so said carefully worded strike threat is a case in point. The staff want to kill KQ!!! Ngunze must go. He is the one killing KQ. Wait for the confrontation, the pilots are not backing off this time round. What else do you need to prove the mismanagement being overseen by this character? @Ngunze will go, but that will not stop delayed or cancelled flights by a crew that slept at 1824 and calls in sick, or ground crew who pilfer baggage, air hostesses who are shabby and rarely smile, finance guys who suppress ticket sales for personal gain, procurement that seals underhand deals.. Its @Ngunze who initiated the audits. Its @Ngunze who has delivered reduced loss by amazing margins. If given sufficient time, @Ngunze would have made KQ the Pride of Africa Continue clapping for a corrupt and incompetent individual. What's the role of the management when staff misconduct is detected????????? Breaking organisation culture takes time.. Line managers must work in concert with top management for real change to occur... KQ has the technology, the fleet, the hub. Its the people agenda that haunts KQ It starts from the top,period! Organizational culture is built by each staff at an organization and should not be the role of CEO alone.. The staff at KQ must not be let to kill the airline.. Good riddance to the greedy technical staff http://www.businessdaily...10026-v8iuylz/index.html
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:This thing traded at KES 3.8 a few days ago and today we see its at KES 5.55. A traders stock like no other. Bound to be the best performing stock for second year in a row. Watu wa fundamentals muende kwa thread ya SCOM au BAT.. Next stop KES 8.52 No chance of it being best performing stock for the year. It started the year at 6.70 on January 3 2017. Only time will tell Time is telling.. Watch and learn
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:This thing traded at KES 3.8 a few days ago and today we see its at KES 5.55. A traders stock like no other. Bound to be the best performing stock for second year in a row. Watu wa fundamentals muende kwa thread ya SCOM au BAT.. Next stop KES 8.52 No chance of it being best performing stock for the year. It started the year at 6.70 on January 3 2017. Only time will tell Time is telling.. Watch and learn 5.85 with consolidation is 23.4. We are now at 12.45 or 3.11 pre-consolidation Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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