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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
obiero
#9081 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2017 4:57:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
littledove wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Hii consolidation and split of shares is coming from where.
From the last information new shares were created and allocated to kq lenders and GOK conversion of debt to equity.The par value of kq shares wasn't adjusted.
The total issued shares of kq is now 5.82bn.
I will wait for tomorrow to see

I will not laugh, since the PJT Partners deal is indeed quite complex to understand.. Read more here https://www.kenya-airway...the%20restructuring.pdf
23.28B shares after restructuring of the debt to equity at KES 2.13 per share were consolidated at a ratio of 1:4 to 5.82B shares, though existing shareholders are yet to defend their diluted stake via an Open Offer which was assured by the board to be at a price lower than that issued to GoK, KLM and KQ Lenders Co Ltd with the Open Offer expected to raise KES 1.5B automatically implying a ratio of 5 new shares at price of KES 1.8 i.e 813,160,565 new Open Offer shares.



I have read the article and its very straight forward and simple.No need trying to calculate complex stuff like 23.28bn shares at 2.13 then consolidation.
There will be no consolidation taking place post the 5.82bn shares.
@Obiero as it stands your shares should be 266,000 and not the 66,000 shares you are posting.


@ Ericsson are you expecting a rally tomorrow?

@ericsson has sworn KES 1.5 will print


Range of ksh.1.5-2.2

Tomorrow wazua finds out who amongst the elders remains solid in analysis.. Some are hinting at 1.5 others at 21.. I stick to 8.52 as the very minimum with possibility of reaching 12 or more as a high

if somebody bought 4000 shares at ksh 5 total cost = ksh 20000. If the shares are consolidated to 1000 then buying price will change to ksh 20 . That means if original shares were also consolidated 8.52 will be a massive loss for original shareholders. Eg those who bought at 4 will break even at ksh16, those who bought at 6 will break even at ksh 24 . This also means banks have a upper hand as they will break even at 8.52 and any price above that factoring in their interest they can start exiting if no lock in period.

You are the first one to observe the intricacy.. But you miss out the Open Offer details which makes KES 8.52 adequate since averaging down for the existing shareholders shall be at KES 1.8 per share https://imgur.com/a/KcJXl

Further, few of the larger banks shall be willing to dispose on the spot due to the guarantee notes of KES 11B for KQ by GoK in future business, and even if they did, there shall be no large buyers of that scale, noting that both KLM and GoK are also not selling.. There shall be a vacuum, with next to zero sellers below KES 21 until the Open Offer circular is released

@littledove remained sober and knows which direction this plane is headed towards

KQ ABP 4.26
obiero
#9082 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2017 5:26:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
The workers still trying hard to kill KQ.. "Some of our technical staff have downed their tools demanding more pay. None of our flights have so far been affected by this illegal industrial action and they won’t be,” KQ chairman Michael Joseph

KQ ABP 4.26
gatoho
#9083 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2017 10:11:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
I got in at 3.8, where am I now
Foresight..
obiero
#9084 Posted : Wednesday, November 29, 2017 10:30:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
gatoho wrote:
I got in at 3.8, where am I now

Only two trades occurred at sub KES 10.. Or you mean that you have been holding KQ shares

KQ ABP 4.26
obiero
#9085 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 7:40:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular

KQ ABP 4.26
VituVingiSana
#9086 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:22:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,313
Location: Nairobi
I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.

After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.

4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share.
4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/-
1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-

So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.

The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?

Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.

There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms?
Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?

I wish KQ all the best.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
lochaz-index
#9087 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:25:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
gatoho wrote:
I got in at 3.8, where am I now

Using yesterday's high price of 15(3.75 pre-reverse split), you are still under water but almost at breakeven. Smoke and mirrors game at its best. Many will be lost and stuck in the maze before the dust settles.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
HaMaina
#9088 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:25:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 929
obiero wrote:
The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular


What was this that I heard on last nights business news, if you had 1,000 shares,that number is not affected & you would still have 1,000 shares. Ama I was hearing my own things ?
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
Spikes
#9089 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:29:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
VituVingiSana wrote:
I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.

After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.

4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share.
4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/-
1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-

So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.

The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?

Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.

There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms?
Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?

I wish KQ all the best.


Thanks @ vvs for your input. This is the basis on which we should question the Open Offer and the much dramatized 1:4 share consolidation. In my opinion this stock will trade between 5-8.55 after the dust has settled.
As long as all information pertaining to KQ lenders company lock-in period remains uncertain anything related to price volatility can happen.Are there any hidden restructuring cards if made public would potentially scuttle the much anticipated rally?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
obiero
#9090 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:32:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
HaMaina wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular


What was this that I heard on last nights business news, if you had 1,000 shares,that number is not affected & you would still have 1,000 shares. Ama I was hearing my own things ?

Bob Karina isn't a spokesman for the airline.. He obviously wasn't aware of what he said since we have checked our CDSC accounts and we know that consolidation occurred

KQ ABP 4.26
obiero
#9091 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:42:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.

After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.

4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share.
4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/-
1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-

So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.

The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?

Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.

There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms?
Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?

I wish KQ all the best.


Thanks @ vvs for your input. This is the basis on which we should question the Open Offer and the much dramatized 1:4 share consolidation. In my opinion this stock will trade between 5-8.55 after the dust has settled.
As long as all information pertaining to KQ lenders company lock-in period remains uncertain anything related to stock volatility can happen.

@spikes Never let anyone think on your behalf. The aim of reading is to reduce or eliminate ignorance.. There's no lock in period for KQ Lenders Co Ltd.. As for the 1.5B for the Open Offer, why would existing shareholders expect same number of shares after consolidation without building up their equity contribution.. That sum raised would be pre-emptive defense of proportional ownership, not a figure that can buy a plane or even a significant part of it.. Actually Michael Joseph has clearly stated that 100% of the Open Offer sum shall be used to further settle debt, which is a wise thing.. Finally, if 2.1m shares traded at KES 12.5 yesterday and all the major shareholders bought at KES 8.52, what on earth will drive the share down to KES 5

KQ ABP 4.26
Impunity
#9092 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 9:38:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
obiero wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
HaMaina wrote:
I was expecting higher movement not 2.1 Mil.

That's no usual movement. That's 8.4 milis for Ur info. Slota continues tomorrow after ppt failed flat.

You are a very funny character.. 2.1 million shares out of 125m is giving you such high excitement.. Let's wait for your tomorrow to see what's up
. Meanwhile, logical investors must understand that KES 21 was never meant to print. KES 12.5 is fair value with low of KES 8.52 being new minimum



If this thing was done 4:1 ratio,does your fair value price of kes. 8.52 means the price is actually 2.1 (were we not to have the consolidation) ?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

obiero
#9093 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 10:33:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
Impunity wrote:
obiero wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
HaMaina wrote:
I was expecting higher movement not 2.1 Mil.

That's no usual movement. That's 8.4 milis for Ur info. Slota continues tomorrow after ppt failed flat.

You are a very funny character.. 2.1 million shares out of 125m is giving you such high excitement.. Let's wait for your tomorrow to see what's up
. Meanwhile, logical investors must understand that KES 21 was never meant to print. KES 12.5 is fair value with low of KES 8.52 being new minimum



If this thing was done 4:1 ratio,does your fair value price of kes. 8.52 means the price is actually 2.1 (were we not to have the consolidation) ?

@muandiwambeu which slaughter has continued? KQ up 9.6% today.. @impunity Yes that is the direct implication.. But KES 8.52 is not fair value but conversion value.. Would read KES 2.13 to be exact, but that's water under the bridge

KQ ABP 4.26
obiero
#9094 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 2:51:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs

KQ ABP 4.26
Spikes
#9095 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 3:09:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
obiero wrote:
Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs


Today KQ traded on vapour volume!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
obiero
#9096 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 4:08:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs


Today KQ traded on vapour volume!

Expect the trend to persist.. High demand with no supply leading to increase in the share price.. Meanwhile, Sebastian Mikosz has sacked all the engineers who downed their tools yesterday http://www.businessdaily...09186-hjbpaez/index.html

KQ ABP 4.26
tandich
#9097 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 5:47:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 199
obiero
#9098 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 6:10:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,133
Location: nairobi
tandich wrote:
https://facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154833596251876&id=556751875&_rdr

Shallow understanding of finance in that link. Extremely shallow

KQ ABP 4.26
Ericsson
#9099 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 6:12:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,800
Location: NAIROBI
http://www.businessdaily...8664-7glcm6z/index.html

Interest rates on the converted loans from local banks diverged by up to 5.5 percentage points, indicating varying risk perceptions among the lenders.
KCB’s Sh2 billion had the highest interest rate of 12.5 per cent,
National Bank of Kenya’s Sh3.5 billion at 11.22 per cent.
Equity Bank, Commercial Bank of Africa and Ecobank all priced their respective loans of Sh5.1 billion, Sh3 billion and Sh824 million respectively at 10 per cent.
The Sh412 million that KQ owed Jamii Bora had an interest rate of nine per cent, the same level as NIC Bank’s Sh2 billion.
Co-op Bank COOP priced its Sh3.3 billion loan at 8.83 per cent,
Diamond Trust Bank’s Sh2 billion (at 8.5 per cent) and
Chase Bank’s Sh721 million (8.25 per cent).
I&M which lent KQ Sh824 million, offered the national carrier the lowest interest rate of seven per cent.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Kusadikika
#9100 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:02:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,718
Banks always have provisions for bad debts. This is an important thing to remember here because the share price will not depend on any fundamentals in the near term, it will depend on how banks choose to deal with their shares.

A decision to cut losses and get whatever cash they can will will lead to a massive selloff that will drive down share price.

Banks need cash and they are in the business of selling debts every day not sitting and waiting for shares to appreciate. I bet some bankers would be willing to take 50% or less of what they put in if they could get the cash today rather than wait 5 years and hope to recover the whole amount. As soon as serious buyers show up this price will tank precipitously. I hope I am wrong but a steep drop is coming. I am calling a sub 5/= by end of January 2018.
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