Wazua
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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:littledove wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:Hii consolidation and split of shares is coming from where. From the last information new shares were created and allocated to kq lenders and GOK conversion of debt to equity.The par value of kq shares wasn't adjusted. The total issued shares of kq is now 5.82bn. I will wait for tomorrow to see
I will not laugh, since the PJT Partners deal is indeed quite complex to understand.. Read more here https://www.kenya-airway...the%20restructuring.pdf
23.28B shares after restructuring of the debt to equity at KES 2.13 per share were consolidated at a ratio of 1:4 to 5.82B shares, though existing shareholders are yet to defend their diluted stake via an Open Offer which was assured by the board to be at a price lower than that issued to GoK, KLM and KQ Lenders Co Ltd with the Open Offer expected to raise KES 1.5B automatically implying a ratio of 5 new shares at price of KES 1.8 i.e 813,160,565 new Open Offer shares. I have read the article and its very straight forward and simple.No need trying to calculate complex stuff like 23.28bn shares at 2.13 then consolidation. There will be no consolidation taking place post the 5.82bn shares. @Obiero as it stands your shares should be 266,000 and not the 66,000 shares you are posting. @ Ericsson are you expecting a rally tomorrow? @ericsson has sworn KES 1.5 will print Range of ksh.1.5-2.2 Tomorrow wazua finds out who amongst the elders remains solid in analysis.. Some are hinting at 1.5 others at 21.. I stick to 8.52 as the very minimum with possibility of reaching 12 or more as a high if somebody bought 4000 shares at ksh 5 total cost = ksh 20000. If the shares are consolidated to 1000 then buying price will change to ksh 20 . That means if original shares were also consolidated 8.52 will be a massive loss for original shareholders. Eg those who bought at 4 will break even at ksh16, those who bought at 6 will break even at ksh 24 . This also means banks have a upper hand as they will break even at 8.52 and any price above that factoring in their interest they can start exiting if no lock in period. You are the first one to observe the intricacy.. But you miss out the Open Offer details which makes KES 8.52 adequate since averaging down for the existing shareholders shall be at KES 1.8 per share https://imgur.com/a/KcJXl
Further, few of the larger banks shall be willing to dispose on the spot due to the guarantee notes of KES 11B for KQ by GoK in future business, and even if they did, there shall be no large buyers of that scale, noting that both KLM and GoK are also not selling.. There shall be a vacuum, with next to zero sellers below KES 21 until the Open Offer circular is released @littledove remained sober and knows which direction this plane is headed towards KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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The workers still trying hard to kill KQ.. "Some of our technical staff have downed their tools demanding more pay. None of our flights have so far been affected by this illegal industrial action and they won’t be,” KQ chairman Michael Joseph KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2010 Posts: 518 Location: kandara, Murang'a
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I got in at 3.8, where am I now Foresight..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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gatoho wrote:I got in at 3.8, where am I now Only two trades occurred at sub KES 10.. Or you mean that you have been holding KQ shares KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,313 Location: Nairobi
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I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy. After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered. 4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share. 4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/- 1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/- So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week. The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share? Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt. There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms? Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period? I wish KQ all the best. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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gatoho wrote:I got in at 3.8, where am I now Using yesterday's high price of 15(3.75 pre-reverse split), you are still under water but almost at breakeven. Smoke and mirrors game at its best. Many will be lost and stuck in the maze before the dust settles. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 929
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obiero wrote:The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular What was this that I heard on last nights business news, if you had 1,000 shares,that number is not affected & you would still have 1,000 shares. Ama I was hearing my own things ? “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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VituVingiSana wrote:I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.
After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.
4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share. 4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/- 1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-
So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.
The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?
Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.
There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms? Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?
I wish KQ all the best. Thanks @ vvs for your input. This is the basis on which we should question the Open Offer and the much dramatized 1:4 share consolidation. In my opinion this stock will trade between 5-8.55 after the dust has settled. As long as all information pertaining to KQ lenders company lock-in period remains uncertain anything related to price volatility can happen.Are there any hidden restructuring cards if made public would potentially scuttle the much anticipated rally? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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HaMaina wrote:obiero wrote:The Open Offer is an extremely profitable proposition in as long as the allocation is at a ratio of 4:1 or higher.. We await the circular What was this that I heard on last nights business news, if you had 1,000 shares,that number is not affected & you would still have 1,000 shares. Ama I was hearing my own things ? Bob Karina isn't a spokesman for the airline.. He obviously wasn't aware of what he said since we have checked our CDSC accounts and we know that consolidation occurred KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:I haven’t been following the happenings in KQ for some time. The proposition, despite all the drama with IFRS9 and interest caps, has me more interested in banks. Plus there’s KK [higher oil prices hurts KK’s financing costs], Unga [higher maize/wheat prices, subsidies, elections, etc], KenRe, etc to keep me busy.
After reading the posts, here’s what I gathered.
4 “old” KQ shares have been “reverse split” into 1 “new” KQ share. 4 old KQ shares were trading at 4/- = 16/- 1 new KQ sure is trading at 12/-
So anyone who held onto their KQ Shares has lost 25% in one week.
The option of the “Open Offer” [which feels like a Rights Issue] was available even before the restructuring. It was a known known. A price of 1.80 (for the open offer) was being bandied around but is this per new or old share?
Why is KQ looking to raise just 1.5bn from the Open Offer? Even after the Debt:Equity conversion, it seems there’s a huge need for cash in light of fleet renewal or acquisitions as well as higher fuel prices and the debt.
There’s a Mandatory Debt Conversion feature for the banks. What are the terms? Is KQ Lenders Co locked in before they can sell their shares? How long is the lock-in period?
I wish KQ all the best. Thanks @ vvs for your input. This is the basis on which we should question the Open Offer and the much dramatized 1:4 share consolidation. In my opinion this stock will trade between 5-8.55 after the dust has settled. As long as all information pertaining to KQ lenders company lock-in period remains uncertain anything related to stock volatility can happen. @spikes Never let anyone think on your behalf. The aim of reading is to reduce or eliminate ignorance.. There's no lock in period for KQ Lenders Co Ltd.. As for the 1.5B for the Open Offer, why would existing shareholders expect same number of shares after consolidation without building up their equity contribution.. That sum raised would be pre-emptive defense of proportional ownership, not a figure that can buy a plane or even a significant part of it.. Actually Michael Joseph has clearly stated that 100% of the Open Offer sum shall be used to further settle debt, which is a wise thing.. Finally, if 2.1m shares traded at KES 12.5 yesterday and all the major shareholders bought at KES 8.52, what on earth will drive the share down to KES 5 KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,330 Location: Masada
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obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:HaMaina wrote:I was expecting higher movement not 2.1 Mil. That's no usual movement. That's 8.4 milis for Ur info. Slota continues tomorrow after ppt failed flat. You are a very funny character.. 2.1 million shares out of 125m is giving you such high excitement.. Let's wait for your tomorrow to see what's up . Meanwhile, logical investors must understand that KES 21 was never meant to print. KES 12.5 is fair value with low of KES 8.52 being new minimum If this thing was done 4:1 ratio,does your fair value price of kes. 8.52 means the price is actually 2.1 (were we not to have the consolidation) ? Portfolio: Sold You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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Impunity wrote:obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:HaMaina wrote:I was expecting higher movement not 2.1 Mil. That's no usual movement. That's 8.4 milis for Ur info. Slota continues tomorrow after ppt failed flat. You are a very funny character.. 2.1 million shares out of 125m is giving you such high excitement.. Let's wait for your tomorrow to see what's up . Meanwhile, logical investors must understand that KES 21 was never meant to print. KES 12.5 is fair value with low of KES 8.52 being new minimum If this thing was done 4:1 ratio,does your fair value price of kes. 8.52 means the price is actually 2.1 (were we not to have the consolidation) ? @muandiwambeu which slaughter has continued? KQ up 9.6% today.. @impunity Yes that is the direct implication.. But KES 8.52 is not fair value but conversion value.. Would read KES 2.13 to be exact, but that's water under the bridge KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs Today KQ traded on vapour volume! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:Supply volume all dried up.. Whoever sold yesterday was duped big time! Some lucky fellows bought sub KES 12 and will average down at KES 1.8.. Meanwhile, expect multiple highs of close to 10% in the next few days until the Open Offer circular is released which should lead to a final spike upwards depending on the T&Cs Today KQ traded on vapour volume! Expect the trend to persist.. High demand with no supply leading to increase in the share price.. Meanwhile, Sebastian Mikosz has sacked all the engineers who downed their tools yesterday http://www.businessdaily...09186-hjbpaez/index.html KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2008 Posts: 199
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,134 Location: nairobi
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tandich wrote:https://facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154833596251876&id=556751875&_rdr Shallow understanding of finance in that link. Extremely shallow KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,800 Location: NAIROBI
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http://www.businessdaily...8664-7glcm6z/index.html
Interest rates on the converted loans from local banks diverged by up to 5.5 percentage points, indicating varying risk perceptions among the lenders. KCB’s Sh2 billion had the highest interest rate of 12.5 per cent, National Bank of Kenya’s Sh3.5 billion at 11.22 per cent. Equity Bank, Commercial Bank of Africa and Ecobank all priced their respective loans of Sh5.1 billion, Sh3 billion and Sh824 million respectively at 10 per cent. The Sh412 million that KQ owed Jamii Bora had an interest rate of nine per cent, the same level as NIC Bank’s Sh2 billion. Co-op Bank COOP priced its Sh3.3 billion loan at 8.83 per cent, Diamond Trust Bank’s Sh2 billion (at 8.5 per cent) and Chase Bank’s Sh721 million (8.25 per cent). I&M which lent KQ Sh824 million, offered the national carrier the lowest interest rate of seven per cent. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,718
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Banks always have provisions for bad debts. This is an important thing to remember here because the share price will not depend on any fundamentals in the near term, it will depend on how banks choose to deal with their shares.
A decision to cut losses and get whatever cash they can will will lead to a massive selloff that will drive down share price.
Banks need cash and they are in the business of selling debts every day not sitting and waiting for shares to appreciate. I bet some bankers would be willing to take 50% or less of what they put in if they could get the cash today rather than wait 5 years and hope to recover the whole amount. As soon as serious buyers show up this price will tank precipitously. I hope I am wrong but a steep drop is coming. I am calling a sub 5/= by end of January 2018.
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