Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Foreign investors headed for the EXITS!
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
I must confess i have really behaved like the foreigners this year, Buy low sell high.
No need to panic foreigners and fund managers are rebalancing portfolios and waiting for the budget. Given that NSSF is no longer in the market to mop up shares please enjoy the volatility and mirror the foreign investors.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,460
|
murenj wrote:in he meanwhle, let me plot my revenge...........take out an unsecured bankloan, mop up some two counters and skip out after 100% gain.....what is your take on this one guys? Be careful when it comes to financing share acquisition using loans. My default reaction is don't even go there!But if you MUST, wait for the market/target share to fall kabisa (50% if you are targeting 100% returns), and make sure you have a plan on how you are going to pay the loan using other sources. Don't imagine you will sell the shares to pay the loan coz if the market doesn't turn as soon as you expected, you will be forced to sell at a loss and repay part of the loan. Then you will be left stuck with commisions (buy & sell), an uncleared loan, interest etc. etc. And you will still be in the same position, you have to look for another source of money to clear the loan!!! Or all could go well and the market turns immediately after you buy and you make a killing. The question is, Is that investing or gambling? Thin line my brother! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 4/2/2007 Posts: 5
|
KulaRaha wrote:Wow, todays facts:
as at now,
Foreign purchases: 338m
Foreign sales: 421m
net foreign outflow: 83m
Doesnt look like a wholesale exit to me...thats about $1m only...small change. Where is the data on foreign purchases / sales available? Rich, mystocks, Wazua nellydata?
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
@MaichBlack,
Don't we all gamble on the future when we invest?
I took out a substantial sacco loan in December and sunk it into Mumias, i have now sold my entire holding repaid the loan and am now debating where to put the gains.
"Now Every gambler knows that the secret to surviving
Is knowing what to throw away and knowing what to keep...
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run."
Disclaimer: please don't listen to me. Heed the wise words from MaichBlack
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
|
I swear anytime the market comes close to a P/E close to 7 I will take the biggest loan I can and spread it all over counters which have dropped over 80%...no fundamentals whatsoever...applying margin of safety in its purest form just as advocated for by Ben Graham and John templeton...surely I may or will loose money on some of stocks but the overall performance will better those of carefully selected stocks...in the short term that is..then chill with my millions   ...right now the market is at a P/E of 15 and it doesnt look like a bright idea The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
I'm verry dissapointed with guys like @ sheep and mkono...u guys dont invest u gamble...why take out an secured loan instead of investing ur savings??? As a 22 year old i invest what i save on a monthly basis...i might not have millions but i'm on my way...and i sleep peacefully...
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
|
Wooow...is it a mistake or is true? Turnover at the moment 550m?.!!
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
|
Hmmm Trends showing an uptick. Wonder why?!?!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
|
MaichBlack wrote:murenj wrote: the foreigners have pulled a fast one on the local investors this time now. they lured us into a sense of false confidence then wham!!!!!!!!! Why do you guys keep talking about "foreign investors" like they are a close knit group of individuals. The way some of you talk, one might think all foreign investors know each other and actually plan night meetings to plan when to buy, when to dump and most importantly how to fix Kenyans! Nini hii? LOL... true dat! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,548
|
@deal you could not be more wrong. A gambler is a gambler whether he uses his savings or a loan at nse to gamble, and an investor is an investor whether he uses his savings or a loan at NSE. There is a big difference between investing and speculating(gambling), if you are a true investor, credit will always push you further. The careless habit is to take loans to buy cars, t.v's, shoes, wine, wedding e.t.c A New Kenya
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/14/2010 Posts: 26 Location: kenya
|
the deal wrote:I'm verry dissapointed with guys like @ sheep and mkono...u guys dont invest u gamble...why take out an secured loan instead of investing ur savings??? As a 22 year old i invest what ever i say n a monthly...i might not have millions but i'm on my way...and i sleep peacefully... am seeing nothing wrong with taking a loan to invest, and thats why in the balance sheet of kampus you see liabilities. sometimes you get burnt others you win. i got burned during the safcom ipo taking out a big loan, being awarded very kidogo shares and the share price not increasing as expected. so in the end am left with a lot of "cash" in quotes coz it took 4eva to get refund and kidogo shares at a a very low price. late last year i took another loan when scom was 2.70 i averaged down to around 3.5 then i sold last month at 5.7. paid my loan and also managed to buy cfc and now what i have in the market is my cash that i made from a bank loan. Fear gets you no where my friend, as it has been said, you jus have to know how to play with numbers. but thing is its not guaranteed that one will win all the time. roho juu Roho Juu
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
|
the deal wrote:I'm verry dissapointed with guys like @ sheep and mkono...u guys dont invest u gamble...why take out an secured loan instead of investing ur savings??? As a 22 year old i invest what ever i say n a monthly...i might not have millions but i'm on my way...and i sleep peacefully... Dont be disappointed.I like the way one guy explained it.When Jesus was asked by the pharisees which is the greatest commandment he answered love God and love you brother as you do yourself.The entire scripture was condensed in this commandment...like wise your whole duty as an investor is to buy low sell high...you have to know what is relatively low and what is high. I hold several stocks like DTB,Jubilee,Bamburi,ARM which I will not sell and was actually looking for an opportunity to average...but to most of the other stocks I hold are for speculative reasons. The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
|
|
|
Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/14/2010 Posts: 26 Location: kenya
|
spoken like a true maasai elder there much know.  roho juu Roho Juu
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
@deal, Much Know has said it best you always use loans to buy appreciating assets, so i do invest in quality stocks and not junk stocks but i never miss out an opportunity to make gains if a stock is oversold and spread risks. If the stock is still quality and i can get back in at a lower price why not. That's how i grow my portfolio.
Again my disclaimer applies, please don't listen to me.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
|
Not unless you are an institutional investor.............we all start as speculators, then when the share prices fall and we get "hanged" we pretend to be "investors" I like @Mukiha's model of investment..........He seems to exactly know what he is doing at the NSE. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
mkonomtupu wrote:@deal, Much Know has said it best you always use loans to buy appreciating assets, so i do invest in quality stocks and not junk stocks but i never miss out an opportunity to make gains if a stock is oversold and spread risks. If the stock is still quality and i can get back in at a lower price why not. That's how i grow my portfolio.
Again my disclaimer applies, please don't listen to me. well u cant convince a man to give up his trade...stick to what works for you...i have CFC and KQ i bought with my own cash...if i make 100% retains i dont have a bank to repay...
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
|
sheep wrote:If this trend continues tomorrow,none will be smiling and talking tough @Sheep.............You should have added "with the possible exception of @mwenza". From my own analysis @vvs has no Shock-Absorbers for a falling market, which i find to be most strange for somebody i thought was a seasoned investor. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
|
mwenza wrote:sheep wrote:If this trend continues tomorrow,none will be smiling and talking tough @Sheep.............You should have added "with the possible exception of @mwenza". From my own analysis @vvs has no Shock-Absorbers for a falling market, which i find to be most strange for somebody i thought was a seasoned investor. IMHO, the market was still cheap for what I have so I was fully invested... Cash is good but what's the point if all I see if the bus leaving... I cant keep my powder dry all the time! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/6/2007 Posts: 1,177 Location: Nairobi - Kenya
|
thought the objective is to make an extra coin regardless of the sources of income....? When you hear what I say, you will not understand. When you see what I do, you will not comprehend
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
the deal wrote:
well u cant convince a man to give up his trade...stick to what works for you...i have CFC and KQ i bought with my own cash...if i make 100% retains i dont have a bank to repay...
@deal, i also started with KQ when i got my first job (Ok i also used part of my HELB to buy), i used to buy KQ religiously 1000 shares per month back then it was 6-7/- and i couldn't believe in 2006 when i exited it was in the range of 100/-. Equities work in the long run. As for the foreigners i don't see an exit unless we mess up on the katiba debate. Fundamentals are solid for the Kenyan market but keep your eyes open
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Foreign investors headed for the EXITS!
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|