Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
directional forecast
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
|
karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:muandiwambeu wrote: @karasinga, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. You are right, it looks peculiar as evidenced by actions of MMs(colored candles in the purple rectangle).They are busy doing what they know best and will continue doing it until they have their ware houses full even if it calls for either a prolonged consolidation or another leg south. As stated here, the region between 3.9 and 3.4 would bring in demand for this stock.(see what happened on 3rd August 2017) This notwithstanding, It all depends entirely on your level of risk appetite; you may join them during the current consolidation phase (of course with a stop loss) or wait until THE trend is clear. Currently, Harmonic patterns don't support bullish sentiments at all but anything can happen.  free advice, from the little experience I have gained so far, "Patience is a virtue". Disclaimer… Best wishes Welcome back bro @Karasinga.... thanks spikes. IMHO, On the runway... have seen a high of 5.35 today 27th Oct. karasinga wrote:unless price closes above 5.3...  @karasinga please school these young ones.. KQ is the share to watch. Minimum fair value KES 8.52 @Obiero 8.52 with how many shares listed 7.4B, post-consolidation Not any time soon. Companies with such market capitalisation are doing annual pre-tax profits in excess of 9bn @ericsson a share price is determined by way much more than the issued shares, that's why SCOM once traded at KES 2.95 and people thought that was a fair price!! remember that its issued shares never changed, while its share price went up near-ten-fold .. Information is what drives a share price. Thank you for taking time to learn new ideas, with an open mind Safaricom profits has gone up 3.5 times and its dividend payment has gone 10 times from the time its share price was 2.95. That's why share price has gone up ten-fold Profits grew from 20bn to 70bn Dividend rose from 10 cents to 97 cents Exactly! Other factors!! Which relates to my comment that KQ annual pre tax profits exceeds 9bn for the price to reach 8.52 @karasinga we are no longer on the run-way, but in the sky Enjoy(ing)... Currently in a zone that might offer some resistance(thick clouds). It might go low altitude to pickup anyone interested. (check post 1816) best wishes @obiero I told you so! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
|
|
|
Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
|
Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:muandiwambeu wrote: @karasinga, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. You are right, it looks peculiar as evidenced by actions of MMs(colored candles in the purple rectangle).They are busy doing what they know best and will continue doing it until they have their ware houses full even if it calls for either a prolonged consolidation or another leg south. As stated here, the region between 3.9 and 3.4 would bring in demand for this stock.(see what happened on 3rd August 2017) This notwithstanding, It all depends entirely on your level of risk appetite; you may join them during the current consolidation phase (of course with a stop loss) or wait until THE trend is clear. Currently, Harmonic patterns don't support bullish sentiments at all but anything can happen. free advice, from the little experience I have gained so far, "Patience is a virtue". Disclaimer… Best wishes Welcome back bro @Karasinga.... thanks spikes. IMHO, On the runway... have seen a high of 5.35 today 27th Oct. karasinga wrote:unless price closes above 5.3... @karasinga please school these young ones.. KQ is the share to watch. Minimum fair value KES 8.52 @Obiero 8.52 with how many shares listed 7.4B, post-consolidation Not any time soon. Companies with such market capitalisation are doing annual pre-tax profits in excess of 9bn @ericsson a share price is determined by way much more than the issued shares, that's why SCOM once traded at KES 2.95 and people thought that was a fair price!! remember that its issued shares never changed, while its share price went up near-ten-fold .. Information is what drives a share price. Thank you for taking time to learn new ideas, with an open mind Safaricom profits has gone up 3.5 times and its dividend payment has gone 10 times from the time its share price was 2.95. That's why share price has gone up ten-fold Profits grew from 20bn to 70bn Dividend rose from 10 cents to 97 cents Exactly! Other factors!! Which relates to my comment that KQ annual pre tax profits exceeds 9bn for the price to reach 8.52 @karasinga we are no longer on the run-way, but in the sky Enjoy(ing)... Currently in a zone that might offer some resistance(thick clouds). It might go low altitude to pickup anyone interested. (check post 1816) best wishes @obiero I told you so! @spikes all I can remember is that you said KQ shall trade at KES 2.. While today KES 6.30 shall inevitably print as we cruise to the fair value of KES 8.52
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
|
@Obiero You said 8.52 with issued shares of 7.3bn. When is share restructuring exercise been concluded Currently issued shares is 1.46bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,590
|
hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:FTSE KE NSE15 index weekly chart hints a big move is coming. Calm before the storm. Downside favoured. Bears with the upper-hand. Early year bulls might cancel out with late year bears to close 2017 with a flat. Chances are the bear will finish the rout in 2018 for the next cycle to kick in. An unexpected but welcome consequence of the supreme court ruling is that it may not be possible for KE to raise another eurobond in this cycle...that window may slam shut at any point with the political scene still in a limbo. Possible fiscal crisis in 2018 just as it had promised from way back. There is a small upside coming which is your get out of jail ticket if you are a trader. In cartoon language the move in the NSE 20 index from 2789-4118 is what we call the intervening wave (w-x). That intervening wave makes way for the second zigzag(x-y). The second zigzag will burn you to recognition if you don't know what you are doing. A small upside is possible but I don't expect any meaningful bull charge for the near and medium term. From a fundies point of view, as long as the govt is busy cannibalizing the private sector from all probable angles (funding and regulatory/policy wise) there will be nothing to write home about. In addition, the govt will be fighting for its own survival in that time frame. If as an investor you are easily frazzled, there is no harm in sitting this phase out. My rudimentary calculations suggest that a dip below 3450 level won't be kind to the bulls. As expected FTSE KE NSE15 index slips below the election ruling panic selloff low. Yesterday the index closed with an upthrust bar, which now confirms that the weekly upthrust bar formed during the election ruling reaction was indeed a turning point. Bears are back! FTSE KE NSE15 slips below 200 handle intraday.  One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
FTSE NSE15 reclaims the 200 handle intraday. A lot of resistance in this zone all the way till 222 handle. Bulls will need to pile up a lot of pressure to break down this resistance forest. IMHO the bounce has a short shelf life. The bounce is on. Let's see how far it goes. I would estimate 3850 on the NSE 20
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
|
wukan wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:FTSE KE NSE15 index weekly chart hints a big move is coming. Calm before the storm. Downside favoured. Bears with the upper-hand. Early year bulls might cancel out with late year bears to close 2017 with a flat. Chances are the bear will finish the rout in 2018 for the next cycle to kick in. An unexpected but welcome consequence of the supreme court ruling is that it may not be possible for KE to raise another eurobond in this cycle...that window may slam shut at any point with the political scene still in a limbo. Possible fiscal crisis in 2018 just as it had promised from way back. There is a small upside coming which is your get out of jail ticket if you are a trader. In cartoon language the move in the NSE 20 index from 2789-4118 is what we call the intervening wave (w-x). That intervening wave makes way for the second zigzag(x-y). The second zigzag will burn you to recognition if you don't know what you are doing. A small upside is possible but I don't expect any meaningful bull charge for the near and medium term. From a fundies point of view, as long as the govt is busy cannibalizing the private sector from all probable angles (funding and regulatory/policy wise) there will be nothing to write home about. In addition, the govt will be fighting for its own survival in that time frame. If as an investor you are easily frazzled, there is no harm in sitting this phase out. My rudimentary calculations suggest that a dip below 3450 level won't be kind to the bulls. As expected FTSE KE NSE15 index slips below the election ruling panic selloff low. Yesterday the index closed with an upthrust bar, which now confirms that the weekly upthrust bar formed during the election ruling reaction was indeed a turning point. Bears are back! FTSE KE NSE15 slips below 200 handle intraday. One week later after breaking below the psychological support this index has dumped 10pts (5%) to close at 190.99 today. Yesterday we had another upthrust bar which has come in two week later after the previous one on October 4th. This index is reflecting very bearish (negative) sentiments for an index that comprises the top 15 market heavyweights. Unless the political stalemate is amicably resolved as well as stimulus is injected into the sickly economy, bears will continue to wreak havoc in the market. If 2017 is not the flush out year then 2018 will likely be before the market can base out.
FTSE NSE15 reclaims the 200 handle intraday. A lot of resistance in this zone all the way till 222 handle. Bulls will need to pile up a lot of pressure to break down this resistance forest. IMHO the bounce has a short shelf life. The bounce is on. Let's see how far it goes. I would estimate 3850 on the NSE 20 Rushed bounce for sure...relief rally which sets up the final rout to close the year. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
karasinga wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:NIC & KCB please!!! KCB weekly view. NIC- No comments  Trade what you see @karasinga interpret the KCB chart. Fair price appears to be KES 35 Technically, KCB is a potential buy. Why? 1. Within a strong demand zone that was able to take out two supply zones( peak A & B) 2. RSI hidden divergence on daily time frame. 3. strong confluence around 374. within a strong support (blue arrows) what is likely to happen. High volume to be evidenced as from today 13th Oct. disclaimer. best wishes and remember there are protective stops,..... use them. 35 is likely a stop. my 2 cents I agree with you on the buy recommendation but the timing is suspect.. @obiero, explain "but timing is suspect". In other news volume as at 1435hrs 7,889,500 have already changed hands and 37 printed I mean why are locals buying now while the market is in a state of flux Thanks  You are welcome but tread carefully(tighten your top) between 42 and 46. just in case correction is not over (a probability) best wishes almost into the zone! eyes wide open. high confluence @43.5 It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:EQT In my humble opinion, EQT has lost bullish momentum. For traders there is an opportunity to enrich yourself to the zone between 45 and 42.75 and for investors, the aforementioned zone will be important to offload.  disclaimer. best wishes high confluence 34.5.... stop loss below 31 almost into the zone! eyes wide open It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
Due to strong positive correlation between KCB and EQT, it is prudent to be extremely careful in the coming few days(as from today 2nd Nov). please do not quote me, i might deny having said anything. do your due diligence. my 2 cents. disclaimer It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
|
karasinga wrote:Due to strong positive correlation between KCB and EQT, it is prudent to be extremely careful in the coming few days. please do not quote me, i might deny having said anything. do your due diligence. my 2 cents. disclaimer You mean being extremely careful about a likely pullback? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Due to strong positive correlation between KCB and EQT, it is prudent to be extremely careful in the coming few days (as from today 2nd Nov) . please do not quote me, i might deny having said anything. do your due diligence. my 2 cents. disclaimer You mean being extremely careful about a likely pullback? IMHO, yes mate... A deep one. if their analyses are right, profits gained so far might be wiped out within a few days. remember it is just probability and anything can happen. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:MSC. Weekly view  Disclaimer. best wishes stretching my imagination too far? time will tell  It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
|
karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Due to strong positive correlation between KCB and EQT, it is prudent to be extremely careful in the coming few days (as from today 2nd Nov) . please do not quote me, i might deny having said anything. do your due diligence. my 2 cents. disclaimer You mean being extremely careful about a likely pullback? IMHO, yes mate... A deep one. if their analyses are right, profits gained so far might be wiped out within a few days. remember it is just probability and anything can happen. You may quote me, EQTY shall touch KES 37 shortly. KCB shall also sink but softly
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
|
obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:muandiwambeu wrote: @karasinga, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. You are right, it looks peculiar as evidenced by actions of MMs(colored candles in the purple rectangle).They are busy doing what they know best and will continue doing it until they have their ware houses full even if it calls for either a prolonged consolidation or another leg south. As stated here, the region between 3.9 and 3.4 would bring in demand for this stock.(see what happened on 3rd August 2017) This notwithstanding, It all depends entirely on your level of risk appetite; you may join them during the current consolidation phase (of course with a stop loss) or wait until THE trend is clear. Currently, Harmonic patterns don't support bullish sentiments at all but anything can happen. free advice, from the little experience I have gained so far, "Patience is a virtue". Disclaimer… Best wishes Welcome back bro @Karasinga.... thanks spikes. IMHO, On the runway... have seen a high of 5.35 today 27th Oct. karasinga wrote:unless price closes above 5.3... @karasinga please school these young ones.. KQ is the share to watch. Minimum fair value KES 8.52 @Obiero 8.52 with how many shares listed 7.4B, post-consolidation Not any time soon. Companies with such market capitalisation are doing annual pre-tax profits in excess of 9bn @ericsson a share price is determined by way much more than the issued shares, that's why SCOM once traded at KES 2.95 and people thought that was a fair price!! remember that its issued shares never changed, while its share price went up near-ten-fold .. Information is what drives a share price. Thank you for taking time to learn new ideas, with an open mind Safaricom profits has gone up 3.5 times and its dividend payment has gone 10 times from the time its share price was 2.95. That's why share price has gone up ten-fold Profits grew from 20bn to 70bn Dividend rose from 10 cents to 97 cents Exactly! Other factors!! Which relates to my comment that KQ annual pre tax profits exceeds 9bn for the price to reach 8.52 @karasinga we are no longer on the run-way, but in the sky Enjoy(ing)... Currently in a zone that might offer some resistance(thick clouds). It might go low altitude to pickup anyone interested. (check post 1816) best wishes @obiero I told you so! @spikes all I can remember is that you said KQ shall trade at KES 2.. While today KES 6.30 shall inevitably print as we cruise to the fair value of KES 8.52 @karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
 I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... my appetite is unseemly great. like they say, " If we shouldn't eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?" It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
|
karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... my appetite is unseemly great. like they say, " If we shouldn't eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?" Hehe. Just to check whether the food is still there
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
|
CIC any leads .... In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
|
obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... my appetite is unseemly great. like they say, " If we shouldn't eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?" Hehe. Just to check whether the food is still there 5.3... printed today 13th Nov. This exudes confidence that KQ will have an extended wave 3. Wave ii in the making. Any price <=5 is value... drooling. disclaimer It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
|
karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... my appetite is unseemly great. like they say, " If we shouldn't eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?" Hehe. Just to check whether the food is still there 5.3... printed today 13th Nov. This exudes confidence that KQ will have an extended wave 3. Wave ii in the making. Any price <=5 is value... drooling. disclaimer This one is dangerous, an announcement can wipe you out in an instant In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
|
|
|
Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
|
Angelica _ann wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:obiero wrote:
@karasinga kindly do not attempt a chart on KQ in the next few days, you are about to witness magic
I rest my case. Pullbacks are for adding positions. sky is the limit. enjoy(ing)... my appetite is unseemly great. like they say, " If we shouldn't eat at night, why is there a light in the fridge?" Hehe. Just to check whether the food is still there 5.3... printed today 13th Nov. This exudes confidence that KQ will have an extended wave 3. Wave ii in the making. Any price <=5 is value... drooling. disclaimer This one is dangerous, an announcement can wipe you out in an instant Its true. In stock trading they refer to that phenomenon as high beta
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
directional forecast
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|