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directional forecast
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Impunity wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end  Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later. 4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset. September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat. In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout. What was the lowest handle during the 2008 PEV n the world financial crisis? 2360$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,517 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Impunity wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later. 4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset. September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat. In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout. What was the lowest handle during the 2008 PEV n the world financial crisis? 2360 We may not get that low, but close to 3,450 as pointed out by @hisah.. Kwisha sisi http://www.businessdaily...82964-yli0gxz/index.html
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 has flown past 3850 and smashed past 4000 handle to close at 4076. That's a 46.14% bounce from 2789 low! Are bulls getting ahead of themselves before year end Testing 4000 handle is encouraging as it means the bears are heading out of town, but the current rush in prices doesn't offer a nice hunting ground for now. Sidelined. A reload window will present itself later. 4076 has not been exceeded since post election relief rally as the month comes to a close. Several counters (many banks including mpesa bank) have gap up holes in their weekly chart that was caused by the euphoria rally this month. Always remember that gaps get filled. Exercise caution in this market. Better reloading opportunities will come. Still sidelined until these conditions reset. September starts with a bang! Gaps getting filled. I'll state it again exercise caution in this market! When you live in these markets long enough you start seeing its heartbeat. In two trading days NSE20 has plunged 5.48% and in the process lost 4000 handle as well as the breakout support at 3850 handle as it closes for the day at 3806. Next support cluster comes in at 3450 - 3600. 3797 was the July close while June closed at 3607. The July and August gains are indeed at risk of being wiped out! Strong shakeout. I think 2017 will close with a flattish hint, that is, a marginal gain/loss from where the year opened then 2018 sets up the real trend which still favors the bears more than it does the bulls. The breakdown of correlation between fundies and the market rally suggested that the roughly six month bull was a counter trend. Unless that changes I maintain a bearish stance. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The daily and weekly FTSE NSE KE15 and KE25 index charts are bearish. The heavyweight counters on NSE15 being more bearish! The bounce is almost done. Down move coming soon. Mpesa bank goes ex-div this Friday as well as most blue chips that declared interim dividends close those books this month. I'm still sidelined until October 23rd when the election clouds will be easier to read. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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@karasinga, I hope you did not run away together with our foreign investors. Am wishing you well too. On the other hand, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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Kengen nearly breaking support of 9, will definitely head 8.5
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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muandiwambeu wrote: @karasinga, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. You are right, it looks peculiar as evidenced by actions of MMs(colored candles in the purple rectangle).They are busy doing what they know best and will continue doing it until they have their ware houses full even if it calls for either a prolonged consolidation or another leg south. As stated here, the region between 3.9 and 3.4 would bring in demand for this stock.(see what happened on 3rd August 2017) This notwithstanding, It all depends entirely on your level of risk appetite; you may join them during the current consolidation phase (of course with a stop loss) or wait until THE trend is clear. Currently, Harmonic patterns don't support bullish sentiments at all but anything can happen.  free advice, from the little experience I have gained so far, "Patience is a virtue". Disclaimer… Best wishes It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/21/2017 Posts: 48
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@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Life is a beach and I'm just playing in the sand
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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karasinga wrote:muandiwambeu wrote: @karasinga, what do charts say about kq. It looks peculiar from where I stand. Good day as you ponder over your opinion. You are right, it looks peculiar as evidenced by actions of MMs(colored candles in the purple rectangle).They are busy doing what they know best and will continue doing it until they have their ware houses full even if it calls for either a prolonged consolidation or another leg south. As stated here, the region between 3.9 and 3.4 would bring in demand for this stock.(see what happened on 3rd August 2017) This notwithstanding, It all depends entirely on your level of risk appetite; you may join them during the current consolidation phase (of course with a stop loss) or wait until THE trend is clear. Currently, Harmonic patterns don't support bullish sentiments at all but anything can happen. free advice, from the little experience I have gained so far, "Patience is a virtue". Disclaimer… Best wishes Welcome back bro @Karasinga.... John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:The daily and weekly FTSE NSE KE15 and KE25 index charts are bearish. The heavyweight counters on NSE15 being more bearish! The bounce is almost done. Down move coming soon. Mpesa bank goes ex-div this Friday as well as most blue chips that declared interim dividends close those books this month.
I'm still sidelined until October 23rd when the election clouds will be easier to read. Extended to November 1st. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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Hydro electric power hasn't performed well due to drought. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Ericsson wrote:Hydro electric power hasn't performed well due to drought. Good perfomance from geothermal should alleviate although ROA will not be optimal. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 467 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Ericsson wrote:Hydro electric power hasn't performed well due to drought. Good perfomance from geothermal should alleviate although ROA will not be optimal. KenGen sells geothermal at $0.08 - $0.09 per kWh compared to Hydro @ $0.0236 so loss of Hydro generation will not be felt as in during 1999/2000 or 2007 drought due to increased geothermal generation. Next financial year there should be more sales of geothermal due to completion and energisation of the Olkaria - Suswa - Isinya - Mombasa KETRACO line which transfers geothermal power to Mombasa and reduce thermal diesel engines power that Mombasa was so reliant on (at night when demand is low the whole country can survive on geothermal if the grid was linked)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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kawi254 wrote:sparkly wrote:Ericsson wrote:Hydro electric power hasn't performed well due to drought. Good perfomance from geothermal should alleviate although ROA will not be optimal. KenGen sells geothermal at $0.08 - $0.09 per kWh compared to Hydro @ $0.0236 so loss of Hydro generation will not be felt as in during 1999/2000 or 2007 drought due to increased geothermal generation. Next financial year there should be more sales of geothermal due to completion and energisation of the Olkaria - Suswa - Isinya - Mombasa KETRACO line which transfers geothermal power to Mombasa and reduce thermal diesel engines power that Mombasa was so reliant on (at night when demand is low the whole country can survive on geothermal if the grid was linked) Haven't you read and seen that there has been a huge increase in thermal power generation. "Kenya’s use of expensive diesel-generated electricity has risen to a three-year peak that has left consumers with a huge cost burden. Data from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) shows that the share of thermal power in the energy mix consumed stood at 32 per cent last month or 11 percentage points above cheaper hydropower’s 21 per cent. " http://www.businessdaily...021306-7fxhq2/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion  have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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karasinga wrote:bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes @karasinga well appreciated
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 8/21/2017 Posts: 48
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karasinga wrote:bartum wrote:Ericsson wrote:bartum wrote:piedpiper wrote:@karasinga, please post the charts for Kengen and KPLC when you have a moment. Asante Karasinga welcome, missed your tips here, how is kengen, where is it headed Full Year Results announcement is about to be released May not be good, how do you see it KEGN. Monthly view. My humble opinion have been wrong before and might be wrong again. do your due diligence. disclaimer. best wishes @karasinga thanks for the analysis Life is a beach and I'm just playing in the sand
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