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Safaricom results FY 2010
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mukiha wrote:The "problem" with SCOM [if indeed it is a problem] is NOT the number of SHARES [40b], but the number of SHAREHOLDERS [800,000]. If we can figure a way of cutting this to 80,000, then you will see the price rising...
Reverse-splitting [or consolidation] will not change things! well if i was pregnant on Scom...i wouldnt look on wazua for a week or any of those richlive or mystockslive threads but wait for results in the daily nation..LOL.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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ProverB wrote:2012 wrote:I can bet you if they did a reverse split and only has 4B shares they would never trade below 60/- while nothing else would have changed including the 1/- dividend the perception would be different. Look at equity with almost 4B shares gaining by sometimes more than a shilling a day. Reality. that is not happening anytime soon. my argument...no need to get all excited unless you are a momentum trader..or behavior trackers hence larger risk threshold... But as investment.. safaricom is not the better option here. Ask yourself if you would buy the whole company... Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,460
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sparkly wrote:ProverB wrote:2012 wrote:I can bet you if they did a reverse split and only has 4B shares they would never trade below 60/- while nothing else would have changed including the 1/- dividend the perception would be different. Look at equity with almost 4B shares gaining by sometimes more than a shilling a day. Reality. that is not happening anytime soon. my argument...no need to get all excited unless you are a momentum trader..or behavior trackers hence larger risk threshold... But as investment.. safaricom is not the better option here. Ask yourself if you would buy the whole company... A better question would be, would you buy the whole company at 220 Billion (i.e 5.5/= * 40 Billion). Now, would you? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:ProverB wrote:2012 wrote:I can bet you if they did a reverse split and only has 4B shares they would never trade below 60/- while nothing else would have changed including the 1/- dividend the perception would be different. Look at equity with almost 4B shares gaining by sometimes more than a shilling a day. Reality. that is not happening anytime soon. my argument...no need to get all excited unless you are a momentum trader..or behavior trackers hence larger risk threshold... But as investment.. safaricom is not the better option here. Ask yourself if you would buy the whole company... A better question would be, would you buy the whole company at 220 Billion (i.e 5.5/= * 40 Billion). Now, would you? Ask WWWD? [What Would Warren Do?] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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MOMENT OF TRUTH IS TOMORROW...10% RULE SUSPENDED..ITS EITHER UP OR DOWN..
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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I reckons it'll be down. The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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Oh ye, of litte faith... 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Wa_ithaka wrote:I reckons it'll be down. then we need to start a counselling thread...LOL.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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I sold off my Safaricom lakini it remains a bellweather stock meaning... what happens to safaricom affects all of us! So even I am waiting with bated breath... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Behold,there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.I dont expect anything more than 10% growth in EPS.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:A better question would be, would you buy the whole company at 220 Billion (i.e 5.5/= * 40 Billion). Now, would you? Are you serious! I would buy it without a second thought if I had that money. With expected profit of 20B per annum, break even would be after just 11yrs and then guess what after that all the way to the Central Bank as I doubt any bank would be able to service that.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@jaguar looks like your definitely going to win the share price bet thanks to the foreign investors and their European BULL@&%%.... but i've decided to take one of the biggest risks in my life by buying 50k more shares at 5.5 bringing my total holding to 200k shares at average buy of 3.4bob... Their is going to be TERRIBLE blood bath in the american markets tonight that will probably send safcom falling tomorrow but i will look through the noise and focus on the figures... my new sell price is 7.1 and i'm willing to wait 6 more months Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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I suspect many will be shocked tommorow morning. I expect a slight earnings decline or flatness in earnings at best, ARPU has declined slightly beyond where they thought it would stagnate at long term (damn duo sims and price cuts competition. Voice can only shrink for safcom going forward.
The housefly in the froth is data. They have invested quite a huge sum in getting this monkey going, the reality is that this has turned out to be a serious non starter, the monkey won't get off its ass. Expect data results to hidden in txt and MPESA although even that will not be showing exceptionally high growth because MPESA had reached near maturity pre - MKESHO leaving real data business to drive growth and which is what has not happened. Factor in cost of financing and unless they did a mwangi on costs, this is one share i would be selling today because it doesn't take a stock guru to know we could be looking below 5 bob tommorow.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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safaricom profits to jump 21% according to Rencap...source:www.bloomberg.com.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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You really believe rencap's behind the envelope calculations, ok we are only less than 24hrs away, lets see how good their guestimates are
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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You really believe rencap's behind the envelope calculations, ok we are only less than 24hrs away, lets see how good their guestimates are
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/14/2010 Posts: 26 Location: kenya
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seems like i am the only pesimist here, safcom has engaged in major capital investments this past 1 year and i dont expect them to have paid of by the time of consolidation of their reports. Slight decline of profit for me. still will wait for tomorrow. Roho Juu
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@ makmende safaricom is the makmende of the NSE...LOL...
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/7/2007 Posts: 263 Location: humu humu
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guru267 wrote:i've decided to take one of the biggest risks in my life by buying 50k more shares at 5.5 bringing my total holding to 200k shares at average buy of 3.4bob be patient, watch the market before you buy @5.50, i believe you can get it at a lower price
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,548
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Apparently even good news may not push it up, the "world markets" are plummeting(and have been sliding the past week), otherwise it should have touched 6.50/- by now. It might just hold steady with good results and you will be called upon to urgently make your call to, hold or sell. Others stocks will follow safcoms direction. A New Kenya
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