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To average or not to average?
winston
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 3:26:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
This is quote from Jesse Livermore - on averaging:

"I have warned against averaging losses. That is a most common practice. Great numbers of people will buy a stock, let us say at 50, and two or three days later if they can buy it at 47 they are seized with the urge to average down by buying another hundred shares, making a price of 48.5 on all. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the double worry when the price hits 44? At that point there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second shares. If one is to apply such an unsound principle, he should keep on averaging by buying two hundred shares at 44, then four hundred at 41, eight hundred at 38, sixteen hundred at 35, thirty-two hundred at 32, sixty-four hundred at 29 and so on. How many speculators could stand such pressure? So, at the risk of repetition and preaching, let me urge you to avoid averaging down".

Wazuans: Whats you take? Am kind of undecided.
2012
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 3:44:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
@winston,
Gosh! is that what people do? I honestly had no idea people trade that dangerously. You only add more if you fully understand why the counter is heading south and if it's artificial (at least that's what I do). Like I would not 'average' on AK, would you?

BBI will solve it
:)
sheep
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 4:02:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Right now averaging up is what sounds ludacris,the market conditions have drastically changed.Buy at your own risk.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
MaichBlack
#4 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 4:38:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@ Winston - You don't average down (or up for that matter) just for the sake. You look at fundamentals. What's the true worth of the stock/company? Then you make a decision. For example, I'd buy KK at 100/= because I think it is worth it. If the price drops to 90/= and I have the money you bet I'll "average down". When it hits 80/=, 70/=... I'll repeat the same process so long as what made me buy at 100/= in the first place has not changed. It will be a discount to me. At the same time, I might have bought AK at 20/= and bail at 18/= because at that point I might have new information which might suggest an AK share is actually worth 14/=!

The opposite also applies. If I buy a stock at 10/= knowing that it is actually worth 50/=, I'll buy it again at 15/=, 20/=, 25/=,... depending on my cash flow - Otherwise I would have bought as much as I can at 10/=.

Whatever you do, don't buy a rotten mango at 50/= just because you had bought another one at 100/= are you are trying to "average down"! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Na kwa hayo machache....
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
obiero
#5 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 4:39:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,549
Location: nairobi
@ twenty twelve. that is v true. if u can see that it is a market misjudgement, then and only then can u average down

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Wa_ithaka
#6 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 4:43:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Turns good money into bad money.

Only if fundamentals warrant it.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
kyt
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 20, 2010 9:08:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
indeed
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
Wondergirl
#8 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 7:45:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Thanks guys for bring up this issue.I was just about to ask the same about my holding on Kenya re whose average price is 14.50. I was thinking of adding a few shares so that I get to dispose them. Will that be a case of throwing good money after bad? Averaging has waorked for me befor. Just that I'm not very confident with Kenya re any more, I really want too get rid of it. Help out a sister here, do'nt beat her up......
2012
#9 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 7:58:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Wondergirl wrote:
Thanks guys for bring up this issue.I was just about to ask the same about my holding on Kenya re whose average price is 14.50. I was thinking of adding a few shares so that I get to dispose them. Will that be a case of throwing good money after bad? Averaging has waorked for me befor. Just that I'm not very confident with Kenya re any more, I really want too get rid of it. Help out a sister here, do'nt beat her up......


Why not 'average' with another counter eg Equity or SCOM? I thought the reasoning behind this theory is to take your investment out of the negative?

BBI will solve it
:)
winston
#10 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:05:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Thanks guys- I have been agonising on my holdings in Paka(which wazuans have termed as junk in a different thread) 54% down and Centum 28% down. Am happy to average down on centum (when funds are available) but have been at a loss on paka.

guru267
#11 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:23:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Wondergirl wrote:
Thanks guys for bring up this issue.I was just about to ask the same about my holding on Kenya re whose average price is 14.50. I was thinking of adding a few shares so that I get to dispose them. Will that be a case of throwing good money after bad? Averaging has waorked for me befor. Just that I'm not very confident with Kenya re any more, I really want too get rid of it. Help out a sister here, do'nt beat her up......


@wondergirl be very careful with kenya re and i wouldnt advise averaging down... the price has been falling drastically even when it is trading cum div with a fair dividend and this is clear evidence the market is losing faith in it....

i was a very big bull on this counter before the results but now i am the biggest bear because i dont see how they can improve profitability with the rate of climb in claims... and would advise selling before one gets caught in the trap called EX DIV

clear evidence can be seen with the price reaction of CFC and Kenya re after the release...



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
The Real Shaft
#12 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:36:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
but say...

you bought 1,000 shares of Safcom at 5/-.......

= 5,000/-

and then bought 1,000 more shares at Kshs. 3.50...

= Kshs. 3,500.00....

totaling 2,000 shares at Kshs. 8,500.00....

meaning the value of 1 shares ....

= Kshs. 4.25...

if you then sold all 2,000 shares at Kshs. 4.50

you would receive....

Kshs. 9,000.00

meaning your capital gains = 500/-...

d'oh!

Q.E.D
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
guru267
#13 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:40:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@the real shaft we know all about averaging down the argument is averaging down on a stock that continues falling afterwards...

IMHO before buying a counter one should know at exactly what loss he will begin to average down and exactly the amount...

eg i never average down until i've made a 35%+ loss on an investment
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
The Real Shaft
#14 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:47:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839

it depends on the doctor's prescription....

i developed a principal....

and stuck to it.....

blind and spontaneous buying...

may not assist in the long run....


if we take Eveready for instance...

we know....

they went public to limit....

their losses on investment...

should the inevitable departure come sooner....

it would not be stock to experiment....

however...

safcom....

equity...

msc.....

juicy prospects.....
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
Wondergirl
#15 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:52:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Thanks guys for your sentiments,
Truly said. @ Real Shaft I do know about averaging down, it has really worked for me before with Kenya Air, Safcom and I'm just about to take my profits with BBk after really averaging down. My beef is that it looks like Kenya re is a dyng horse!!! Should I hold it at 14.50 and be content with the ka-divided, should I sell before it becomes ex-divinded and make a loss of more than 20k or should I buy a few at lets sat 12.00 and then pray that it moves up a bit and just do with getting back my investment???
the deal
#16 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:02:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i took my losses on kenya re and never looked back...y would i average a leaking boat...sorry paka has no future...
The Real Shaft
#17 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:05:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
pole my bad...

misread your enquiry....

Kenya Re...

before we look at the individual stock..

let us examine the market of re-insurance....

with Zep-Re...

East African Re-insurance....

and the grander insurance business...

there is nothing but hope .....

Kenya-Re..

is re-structuring...

human resource-wise.....

meaning the tide of bad-decisions..

may be reaching the twilight....

further..

in the sector...

who else would be of interest...???

in may humble estimates...

Kenya-Re..

is close to KCB....

will not increase value astronomically like KQ...

but sound enough not to plummet....

if you are really into that stock...

a small shiver...

will not worry you....

if you have 1,000 shares at 14/50 = 14,500/-...

buy 1,000 shares at 13/50 = 13,500/-

then but 5,000 shares at 6/- = 30,000/-

totaling 7,000 shares at 58,000/-

meaning 1 share = 8/30....

if the stock reaches 10/-....

you will be smiling....
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
The Real Shaft
#18 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:08:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
and the one philosophy...

should be...

never willing make a loss...

try to mitigate .....

and in that way...

the domino effect is allowed to spur into life...

if there are 200 investors with similar thought...

and you all bought on average 100,000 shares...

there shall be a minimal deficit in supply...

meaning..

a shift upwards..

my two and a half cents...
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
Wondergirl
#19 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:17:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Ahsante @ Real,sounds like you have mirrored what I wanted to here.@ Real
By the way had you taken a sabatical? Haven't seen you here for a while... someone missed you.
KulaRaha
#20 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:18:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Its not a bad idea to average down on a stock with good fundamentals...like EABL, etc.

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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