@MadDoc - I don't argue with folks (except the Mbuvi Mouthpiece for fun) who buy cars based on the color.
Yes, as you point out, the tea business is cyclical.
They have increased their cash holdings, since 2011, to a level that will help them maintain/sustain their plantations & factories while things are not so good. The production for 2016-17 is UP but the prices have crashed [down 50-60% from the highs] while costs have increased. Since 2011, they have used their cash windfall to upgrade their factories and installed solar power facilities to reduce pollution + get cheaper power. WTK has also increased the mechanization of tea harvesting to mitigate against higher labor costs.
Smallholders often cut back on "maintenance" and re-planting when tea prices/incomes drop so when the tide turns, the well-maintained farms benefit from higher production & prices relative to smallholders.
WTK has 700mn in cash = 40/- per share.
Trade Receivables + Inventory of 2bn = 120/share
I hope to buy as panicked sellers (hopefully) sell at a much lower price. To paraphrase Warren Buffett: This is one of those firms whose shares can stop trading for 10 years and I would not lose any sleep over it.
BUT I expect a zero to small dividend this year as WTK/KTC has a conservative management which prefers to keep cash in reserve for rainy days.
I expect a very tough 2016-17 for WTK/KTC [low tea prices] and 2017-18 with the election drama. Not a stock for the faint-hearted. These are the type of shares one buys at a "reasonable/fair" price and forgets [ceteris paribus] about them.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett