The launch of the YES secretariat was full of gloomy faces which got me wondering about the succession of errors that has so far characterized the YES campaign. Is the YES campaign jinxed or simply incompetent? Sample this:
1. After a sterling show of unity and purpose at the beginning, the YES campaign then blunders by allowing one politician (the PM) to monopolize and “own” the YES project. Clearly, this was unnecessary and did not add any value since the PM’s core following was already in the YES bag on account of their loyalty to him. On the other hand, the high profile of the PM in the YES campaign has the effect of putting off those within the populace who may loath him. Further, it diminishes the fervor and commitment of the PM’s political rivals to the Yes Project as demonstrated by the lukewarm support and fading involvement by the likes of Uhuru, Peter Keneth and Saitoti. The Yes should have borrowed a leaf from the low key approach taken by the Muslims who are well aware that to do otherwise would be to arouse the passion of the numerically superior Christians.
2. They invite Christian clergy to sham talks, pour cold water on their concerns and call them names. Why should such seasoned politicians as are the two principals, make the blunder of making enemies of the clergy who enjoy unparalleled access to millions of faithful? Or are the principals so full of their self importance and false sense of influence as to imagine that they can sweep everybody aside? Anyway, their attitude and gamesmanship has only served to infuriate the clergy and strengthen their resolve to oppose the Project. Probably, all that would have been required would have been for the principals to make a minor concession to the clergy, say on abortion for them to agree to soften their stand.
3. The PM is shown on TV saying that there is nothing worth protecting in a three month pregnancy, after all the fetus has no legs, hands… etc. The PM’s words naturally infuriated many – not only the hard-line life-ists, but also many ordinary Kenyans who consider abortion as an abomination that goes against African culture. By the way, even birds of the sky handle their eggs - which have no semblance at all to the bird itself - with tender loving care as the birds know well that in the egg lies the future of its kind. The PM’s statement was also interpreted by many as a confirmation that the draft actually allows abortion. You can bet that his words will come again to haunt him in 2012.
4. The YES campaign has unwittingly allowed NO to set the campaign agenda such that it now revolves around the NO issues (abortion, Kadhi Courts, land etc). The more these issues are talked about, the more it registers in people’s subconscious that these are indeed real and serious issues and hence earning the NO campaign mileage. Further, the viral personal attacks on the leaders of the NO team have only helped to galvanize their home support. No wonder, all indications point to a NO landslide in Ruto’s backyard of North & Central Rift.
5. Element(s) controlled by the YES side clandestinely introduce into the draft what the likes of Paul Muite consider to be satanic words at the printing stage. While this attempt was discovered (and thwarted?), it still had the effect of poisoning the air surrounding the review process and hence further softening the ground for the NO message to sink.
6. The YES high command invites, organizes and funds councilors to come to Nairobi for a bonding session. Surprisingly, they give the NO politicians a free reign to meet and indoctrinate the councilors the night before. Even Hon. Waititu of Embakasi will tell you that the way Kanjura politics are conducted in Kenya dictates that you keep your councilors under lock and key until after you are through with them. It’s no wonder that the event was characterized by heckling, the CoE chairman was booed off the podium and the YES team was left mouth agape.
7. They heckle the VP who is one of their own at Uhuru Park. The heckling must have irked many of the VPs supporters making it much easier for the NO to make inroads among the VP’s supporters. The VP’s constituency could easily be pivotal in a closely contested referendum and realizing this; the Yes is left attempting damage control and has lost what would have been an opportunity to bask in the glory of their well attended rally.
8. In an apparent attempt to cool the furore created by the PM’s earlier comments on abortion (3 above), he visits a church on Sunday and speaks to the congregation. He refers to some biblical story about a sick woman and somehow links it to the draft saying that what should be understood to be implied by the provisions of the draft is that since Jesus “is no longer with us” to heal the sick, doctors should be allowed to do so. The PM’s statement however may end up doing more harm to the Yes campaign than good. Elementary Sunday school teaches that God/Jesus is omnipresent and that Jesus rose from the dead. So, to say that “Jesus is no longer with us” may be interpreted as contradicting cherished fundamental tenets of Christianity and hence be seen as offensive by Christians who hold strong beliefs on spirituality and who believe that God/Jesus is present in our lives yesterday, today and forever.
With such blunders, it is no wonder that the huge lead initially enjoyed by the Yes Project has evaporated. But since the frequency and magnitude of these blunders is totally uncharacteristic of such experienced political operators as are to be found in the YES camp, it leads me to believe that the Yes campaign is probably jinxed!
I fear for the YES campaign. Unless by some miracle they pull their act together and quickly so it looks likely that come August 4th, the Greens will simply see RED. The clergy will tell them not to expect any divine intervention!