I have been investing in securities for the last 2 years on a moderate level and I have learnt so much from this forum.

However, some of the logic advocated by some of the distinguished members seems to make absolutely no sense especially from self proclaimed Warren Buffet adherents, case in point Obiero.

On this post, http://wazua.co.ke/forum...990&p=4#post788100, the esteemed member points us to invest in Sanlam based on a previous bull run of the stock that saw it rise from 19 to Kshs 90. This goes directly against Warren's rule book, that past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Even then, the member goes ahead to point out that his basis of opinion is ...waiiit for it...'Projections.. I pick the bottom'. I mean the main point of The Intelligent Investor is that the speculation and investment part of your brains should totally be kept apart.

Sure, I may miss out on this gem just like KQ, but for me even if the price was to shoot upto Kshs 90, for sure it would not be because I made an investment option but rather it would be out of sheer luck.

The only 2 meaningful insurance companies seem to be

1. Jubilee
2. CIC

Britam was a good choice but the debt levels at Kshs 9bn are too staggering for me.


Anyway, comes to my summary.

I never invest in government stocks that are run as 'government parastatals'. This is because even if they have the cushioning of government bailouts in case of f***-ups, you must agree that they are way more susceptible to corruption etc. So I am very sad to have missed on KNRE, KCB, Kengen and Kenya Power.

I would love to hear the opinion of the elders here on the following plays that I am looking forward to making as we commence on the upcoming bull which may already be with us.

I love diversifying my portfolio across a number of sectors.

1. Centum - I have never been a DJ believer especially based on his past record at Uchumi and HACO but I have to admit that this company is really pushing it.

- They have a stake in 2 rivers development, the private school at Kiambu they are planning to setup, Vipingo ridge mini city, Amu coal Power plant etc not to mention their investments out of Kenya..notably Uganda

My only fear is that they are over-leveraged but I like the risk the company is taking.

At the current price of Kshs 39.75 they are trading at a discounted P/E of 3.38 and at a P/B of 0.6.

I was hoping to hold this for so long but for now I will only hold upto Kshs 65 which I think will be achieved.

2. CFC Stanbic - I like the DivYld of about 8.3% at the PE of 5.64. I also like the fact that they seem to have ousted NIC bank and Chase Bank as the choice of deposit for upcoming millionaires. Target exit = above Kshs 100

I would prefer EQTY especially due to the consistency the management has presented us in over 2 decades. I mean the fact that such a big bank is embracing tech is the level EQTY is should be applauded.

I am yet to make a decision here.

3. SCAN - I am collecting this at 18.60. Target exit price Kshs 40.

4. For insurance I would prefer to go with Jubilee but I am not sure they can pull a lot of capital gains in the short term. It may be another BAT which I am loosing out on of the purview of being 'too expensive' but anyway, that's that. I will be wetting my feet with CIC. Target exit is Kshs 7

5. Lastly, I am collecting NSE. I am collecting at Kshs 13 with a targeted exit price of Kshs 25.

6. For agriculture, I am accumulating KAPC at Kshs =< 76


I would love to hear what the community has to say.

I agree. Isn't Sanlam already at KES 25. Does @obiero mean that the share will first slide down to 19. This makes no sense.. Atleast @checkyoursix states boldly that Centum will move from 39 to 65 and Scangroup from 18.60 to 40. Watch out, @obiero could easily mislead @wazua investors http://www.businessdaily...937656-clvs10/index.html

@maka like fine wine, we get better with time. it's important to let these young clowns use our names in vain once in a while.. that's how they gain some credibility over time. opinions are like assholes everyone must have one

NSE is cyclical because it follows the index. In a bull market charged by voluminous trades, the revenues sour and inverse is also true in a bear market. PE is at 20 and dividend yield at 1.93. What an investor needs to ascertain is whether the potential earnings in a bull period can bring down the PE to a single digit and in the process raise the DY. In my view this is possible.

There are a number of reasons but I will stick to two.

1. NSE was ranked the worst performing market in the world by Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.co...-fall-further-ceo-says.

- As the old adage goes, it does make sense to 'Buy cheap and sell dear'. Therefore, in that respect, we can surmise that this may be one of the best markets to invest in presently especially in the timing of the tides is correct(...which it currently is)

2. I am Kenyan. Makes sense to invest primarily in companies that I know especially since I come into contact with news about 'the listed' companies everyday on television, forums and social media.