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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:Quote:Prolonged periods of zero-to-negative stock index performance are a sign that emerging disease outbreaks should be taken very seriously Allan Hall, Socionomics Institute Quote:In other words, when investors' mood sours, they drive stock prices lower, and after a long period of depressed mood, society becomes vulnerable to epidemic disease.
The study, "Exploring Socionomic Causality of Social Health and Epidemics," is available for public download on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). The paper is getting strong downloads already.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Quote:Prolonged periods of zero-to-negative stock index performance are a sign that emerging disease outbreaks should be taken very seriously Allan Hall, Socionomics Institute Quote:In other words, when investors' mood sours, they drive stock prices lower, and after a long period of depressed mood, society becomes vulnerable to epidemic disease.
The study, "Exploring Socionomic Causality of Social Health and Epidemics," is available for public download on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). The paper is getting strong downloads already.
I personally have some neck pains
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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What is socionomics?Socionomics is a new science of social prediction. Socionomic research explains how repeating waves of social mood generate social trends; how a positive mood induces people to expand businesses, dress with flair, buy happy music, live in peace — and buy stocks; and how negative mood induces us to do the opposite.
Simply put, forecasting social mood puts you ahead of the curve — way ahead.Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mnandii wrote:What is socionomics?
Socionomics is a new science of social prediction. Socionomic research explains how repeating waves of social mood generate social trends; how a positive mood induces people to expand businesses, dress with flair, buy happy music, live in peace — and buy stocks; and how negative mood induces us to do the opposite.
Simply put, forecasting social mood puts you ahead of the curve — way ahead. @mnandii I concur with you 100%. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Spikes wrote:mnandii wrote:What is socionomics?
Socionomics is a new science of social prediction. Socionomic research explains how repeating waves of social mood generate social trends; how a positive mood induces people to expand businesses, dress with flair, buy happy music, live in peace — and buy stocks; and how negative mood induces us to do the opposite.
Simply put, forecasting social mood puts you ahead of the curve — way ahead. @mnandii I concur with you 100%.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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wukan wrote:mnandii wrote: Five waves up in Safaricom. Expecting a move down to 14.35 to make wave 'A'. very nice. Wave C takes us all the way to 10 
It is hard to predict a specific stock.... It seems we are getting back to 19.... Is this still part of wave A? Or extension of wave 5?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Liv wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:Five waves up in Safaricom. Expecting a move down to 14.35 to make wave 'A'. very nice. Wave C takes us all the way to 10
It is hard to predict a specific stock.... It seems we are getting back to 19.... Is this still part of wave A? Or extension of wave 5? @@ Mnandii is talking about long-term waves taking a number of years to develop. With time Safaricom shall obey the law of Elliot wave and cave in. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Liv wrote:mnandii wrote: Expecting the NSE 20 Share Index to find resistance at 2949, the 38.2 % retracement level. Next move after that should take us below 2790 and below. It is at 3009 today.... How does this relate to your waves?
The prediction here can be confusing...lol.
We are now at 3098 today ...is this still a retracement ? At what point do we expect it to start to the journey to the earlier prediction.... below 2790?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Spikes wrote:Liv wrote:wukan wrote:mnandii wrote:Five waves up in Safaricom. Expecting a move down to 14.35 to make wave 'A'. very nice. Wave C takes us all the way to 10
It is hard to predict a specific stock.... It seems we are getting back to 19.... Is this still part of wave A? Or extension of wave 5? @@ Mnandii is talking about long-term waves taking a number of years to develop. With time Safaricom shall obey the law of Elliot wave and cave in.
That is too general.... Every company has a growth trend in its early life stages, then plateau period and then the curve goes down...unless there is good innovation to grow the company again. What is the value of predicting what will happen 2-3, or 5 or 10 years from now?
How do the predictions here help people to make money through buying and selling if the prediction is so long term and general?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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I think only violence can take us below what we have already seen "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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mlennyma wrote:I think only violence can take us below what we have already seen What about macroeconomic pillars? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:I think only violence can take us below what we have already seen What about macroeconomic pillars? the major focus now is peaceful elections "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:mlennyma wrote:I think only violence can take us below what we have already seen What about macroeconomic pillars? the major focus now is peaceful elections Credible elections is what will result in peaceful elections Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Current NSE Index: 3109.01 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:Current NSE Index: 3109.01 Still negative YTD (-2.42%), but a commendable recoup of losses from the 2789 low having reclaimed the 3000 handle. 3300 is a tough barrier to challenge all the way to 4000 handle which will need a lot of bull power to overcome.
FTSE KE NSE15 index has also rebounded strongly from the Jan 2017 lows and has recouped losses to stand at -0.58% in the red which is a strong bounce from the -12.4% fall.
FTSE KE NSE25 index has also rebounded strongly and is -1.16% YTD better than the -10.9% fall at the lowest point in Jan 2017.
Q1 2017 will likely finish as a choppy quarter where the market movement was a vicious fall and a solid rebound back to the opening level! Q1 bank results is the next watershed for the market going forward as Q2 rolls in. This will give a clear picture of what to expect for the rest of the year.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:Current NSE Index: 3109.01 Still negative YTD (-2.42%), but a commendable recoup of losses from the 2789 low having reclaimed the 3000 handle. 3300 is a tough barrier to challenge all the way to 4000 handle which will need a lot of bull power to overcome.
FTSE KE NSE15 index has also rebounded strongly from the Jan 2017 lows and has recouped losses to stand at -0.58% in the red which is a strong bounce from the -12.4% fall.
FTSE KE NSE25 index has also rebounded strongly and is -1.16% YTD better than the -10.9% fall at the lowest point in Jan 2017.
Q1 2017 will likely finish as a choppy quarter where the market movement was a vicious fall and a solid rebound back to the opening level! Q1 bank results is the next watershed for the market going forward as Q2 rolls in. This will give a clear picture of what to expect for the rest of the year.
Didn't expect the market to claw above 3000 so soon though the mini rally appears tired. Nice comeback though driven mainly by the financials as was the sell-off that shaved about 500 points. Sideways action or the downleg to resume. The current grizzly is now 2 years old from March 2015! In terms of longevity, it has now outlasted the 2008 GFC downturn. Only the pre-kibaki one lasted longer - approximately 8 years. At about 49% loss (peak to trough), the current bear is lagging behind both the GFC @62% and the pre-kibaki bear @80%. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Thanks. I like their analysis of markets. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 NSE 20 SHARE INDEX Expecting the current counter-trend rally to find resistance between 3189 and 3333 to complete blue wave [iv] Afterwards we should expect a fall to below 2800. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:Thanks. I like their analysis of markets. The best in the market.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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