The largest, longest study of experts' economic forecasts was performed by Philip Tetlock, a professor at the Haas Business School of the University of California - Berkeley. He studied 82,361 predictions over 25 years by 284 selected experts. Prof Tetlock concluded that expert predictions barely beat random guesses. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be.
So, as an investor, what should you do about forecasts.... forecasts of the stock market, forecasts of the interest rates, forecasts of the economy? Answer: Nothing. You can save time, anxiety, and money by ignoring market forecasts and trusting your instincts.
History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison