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Access Kenya free fall.
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sparkly
#41 Posted : Saturday, May 08, 2010 4:50:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@BGL kweli kabisa. Share is still expensive, how much further will it go? At the right price, this is a good investment.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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qw25041985
#42 Posted : Sunday, May 09, 2010 5:56:18 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@sparkly. i agree w/ you. i know this is just a phase rather than what others are callin it.I donot believe the some brother can let this company go down the drain.Probably a merger is in the offing.

Why postpone the AGM if there's nothing important to be said......I might just scoop some shares and hope the speculators show up pushing the price up before the AGM.

Iz it a wise Idea.
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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the deal
#43 Posted : Sunday, May 09, 2010 6:15:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Access kenya is in shiiiit...what are access kenya's economic moats??? what stands out from AK that will make it survive the cut throat compe from scom,kdn n the ressst...if u have answers to the above...stay put...if u dont run.
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2012
#44 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 12:43:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Has KDN internet been revived? It was down all morning AGAIN!!
I think Access will survive because their competitors are unreliable.

BBI will solve it :)
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Wa_ithaka
#45 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 9:18:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Waseni uoga.
Kwani mulikuwa mnafikiri hii ni samaki?

The stock will paa juu, juu juu
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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sheep
#46 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:02:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Jaguar
#47 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:39:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!

not yet, wait till the foreigners get tired of selling because they are too eager to exit. If you want to buy, place your order @-9.5% of the previous day's vwap. Lets buy out the wazungu. I'm loving this game!!!
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2012
#48 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:42:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!


Why?
Please share what you know because the version I have is they're experiencing some cash flow problems (poor management). I just cant see how that offers a good opportunity to invest on this counter.

BBI will solve it :)
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sheep
#49 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:58:11 AM
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Joined: 7/24/2008
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purely on technical grounds,no fundamentals here
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Much Know
#50 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 9:00:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
I dare not put a cent into access, i am worried i will see my money do the backslide for years. Access blunder was to sink so much capital into fiber optics, dig trenches alongside capital loaded safaricom and KDN. Access had and maybe still has an opportunity to set up an intense wireless connection (kind of like butterfly or ZUKU but available allover the places they cover) within the CBD, westi and perhaps densly populated middle class estates like south c/b and buru buru, make sure every office can somehow hook up to your wireless network and sell it dirt cheap! Then all fellows would do is buy i wireless card for their comps and hook up, BTW many laptops come with built in cards. This would have cost it less and would have worked much better. That is the direction they should have taken two years ago, if no one buys them, this one could easily sink.
A New Kenya
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mv_ufanisi
#51 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:24:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!


Many hearts have been broken by shares which people expected to come back up but stayed down for a looong time and some eventually died.

However if it's cheap enough, I will get in too.
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PKoli
#52 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:33:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
At Equity the CEO JM is always bullish when taking about the bank..The same with MJ at Safcom. Even when the shares take substantial beatings the two guys are always bullish..

I do not see the same in the Somens yet they hold relatively higher % of the company than say JM in Equity.

My last buys of Access were in the range of 10-14. I am not sure I attempt this time round.
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Djinn
#53 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 12:43:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
sheep wrote:
This is the right time to jump into access...I wish I had more cash!!!


maybe the right time to jump into an abyss...

If today was May 11th 2007, then please, knock yourself out.

1 - At that time SCOM, Zain, et al did not have converged licences.
2 - At that time Zuku had not raised its head -
3 - mobile data (those annoying USB dongles we've seen getting hawked or unlocked here, esp SCOM ones) were either VERY Expensive (remember those things were abt 20k) or not widely available. Now every Dumb, Prick and Harry seems to have one.
4 - Telkom Kenya - aka the phoenix, is rising from the ashes with intentions of taking back the hill. Never mind their billion shilling loss...
5 - the different submarine systems we have active today (TEAMS and SEACOM) were but plans on paper. Now its a reality and Eassy will soon be commissioned.

AK moved to the consumer segment rather late and with a VERY pricey product. Now Zain/SCOM/Yu/Orange have more or less establised that EDGE/GPRS/3G can do as well as WiMax (or Fibre) esp when it boils down to cost. So, consumer market? No cigar, sorry.

Enterprise market - KDN, UUNet,, Afrol, Zuku, Safaricom Business, Orange Business, Tangering....should I go on?

Cost acquisition of OpenView - not yet making real $ from that.

What do you guys think? 2007 abt 55% market share in customers (and perhaps 70% in revenues) in the business segment....2010 its very likely about 25% in number of customers (and perhaps 35% in terms of revenues - lower bandwidth pricing thus lower revenues + competition + capex) .....
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sparkly
#54 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:03:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@djinn i like your analysis, very sensible. The ICT cake is quite huge and will continue to grow esp with generation of local content. Good as zuku, orange etc are, Access and safcom offer the only alternatives for me and you to take part in the ICT feast! At the right price i think access is a good investment. And the price is starting to look yummy.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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PKoli
#55 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 7:31:27 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Djinn. Thanks for the informative analysis. I will surely stand on the fence as far as Access is concerned
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Jaguar
#56 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 9:58:24 AM
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Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
No foreign sales up to this moment (12:00pm). If foreigners keep away for 1week, it might close next week @23.00/
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youcan'tstopusnow
#57 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:05:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
WHY ACCESS KENYA'S AGM WAS SUSPENDED

http://www.businessdaily.../-/k4g9uhz/-/index.html

At least now all the rumour mongers can shut up.
The company is still on the right track.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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the deal
#58 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:31:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@youcant on the right track how??? they did spend half a billion on a 150km optic fiber cable...yet Jamil telkom did spend 300 mil for 200km...the somen brothers run access like a family company...do u see what i see there?????
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muganda
#59 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:49:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Mmm mmmhhh @the deal, I must agree with you. I read the story and it does not offer the comfort @youcan'tstopusnow alludes to. It actually justifies a lower value than is currently on the boards. Reason being this share is always afforded a premium P/E and I wonder whether they can reasonably lay claim to that multiple now?

What a story though! I for one can give testament to how difficult it is for founders/family to transition from personal to professional above the board setups. The question always on the founders/family minds is:
'Who do they think they are questioning us...where were they when we started this company?'
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youcan'tstopusnow
#60 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 7:50:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
the deal, I accept that the Somen Brothers (and Father) don't understand that the Access Kenya is now a listed company on the NSE. I mean, they completely disregarded advice from the board.
But having said that, AK is not going bust. I know you agree with that. The company will (barring a disaster) record much improved earnings for this financial year. The heavy investment into the cable ate into their profits. That will change this year.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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