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TOTAL, Is everything okay?
FundamentAli
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 12:52:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
I have noticed that the Total next to my place runs out of stocks quite frequently. It also takes a long time before stocks are replenished. This I have been told is the case in several of their petrol stations. Is every everything okay or did they bite more than they could swallow by buying Caltex?
mkonomtupu
#2 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 1:52:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
May 11, 2010 08:53 ET
Africa Oil Corp.: Kenya Bogal-1-1 Well Update
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - May 11, 2010) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil" or "the Company") (TSX VENTURE:AOI) is pleased to announce that the CNOOC Africa-operated Bogal-1-1 well in Block 9, Kenya has reached a total depth of 5,085 metres. Gas shows and petrophysical analysis of wireline logs indicate multiple gas pay zones totaling approximately 91 metres in Lower Cretaceous sandstones. Seven inch casing has been set and testing equipment is currently being mobilized from China. Test results are expected to be available over the next 60 days.
Keith Hill, President and CEO, commented, "I'm very pleased that our first well in Africa appears to be a potential gas discovery. The size and commerciality has yet to be determined by testing, however the initial analysis highlights the excellent prospectivity of the block. Following evaluation of the test results, the Joint Venture partners will meet to discuss the plan for potential Bogal appraisal work in addition to exploring marketing scenarios to best commercialize gas in East Africa."

Expect an upsurge in energy stocks
Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:28:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@mkonomtupu, please translate what you just wrote into English or even Kiswahili if you are so inclined. @Fundamentali, I'm not quite sure how they run their operations but I suspect they have a franchise arrangement and it is possible that your retailer has cash flow problems. The one near my house is never short on ngata. Have they announced Q1 or was I hallucinating as I watched Citizen news the night before last?
newfarer
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:36:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
Stock outs nyingi pia kwa total hapo kwetu. unless we stay at the same area
punda amecheka
fuchu
#5 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 8:07:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/30/2008
Posts: 63
newfarer wrote:
Stock outs nyingi pia kwa total hapo kwetu. unless we stay at the same area


thats total for you. they have more market than they need, thus they really do not care much on the retail sector,,, their main focus is large consumers... mteja wa reja reja ni sumbua tupu!!!!
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 10:35:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Cashflow problems?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Horton
#7 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 6:13:49 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
When I bought into KK, I thought this might be a similar deal however, after due diligence, realized this thing is riddled with debt, "not very efficient" managment. They also quietly gave 250m pref shares to the parent company to acquire chevron Kenya which is a loss making entity. I believe they bit off more than they can chew with chevron Kenya. The rebranding hasn't taken effect in alot of stations countrywide.

I also had the opportunity oftalking to a station manager which was previously a caltex station but is now a total and he said it's quite hard dealing with total and their buearacracies( hope I spelt that right :) ) lots of shortages and in general quite tough doing business with total
Gordon Gekko
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 6:37:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@horton, it has traditionally been very difficult dealing with the french. Two cases come to mind. As folk were slaughtering each other in Rwanda they sat by waiting for instructions from Paris. As people were sinking after the KQ crash in Abidjan the french boat nearby was sitting waiting for instructions from Paris. By the way, of the african countries in turmoil in Africa, how many are french speaking?
mkonomtupu
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 6:41:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@mkonomtupu, please translate what you just wrote into English or even Kiswahili if you are so inclined.


GG, kisima cha bogal huko isiolo huenda tu kikawa na gasi. This is the official confirmation of one of the most exciting things for anyone in the energy sector. The chinese drilling has found some good pockets of gas which looks promising to be commercially exploited. It also means chances of oil hit in the area is really strong. So for a company like Kengen which is considering a joint venture with daewoo for a gas plant in mombasa that's good news.
In terms of oil exploration that is bringing a lot of cash into oil prospecting. The energy sector is now attracting the top dollars.

As for total, it has always had the liquidity problems(it can always run to the Total group in case of a crunch), the debts are like 14billion, it's bankers though are Citi bank(base rate 10%), it was also the main supplier for the emergency IPP's and kengen thermal after triton collapsed, plus total has to dispose some of the assets from Chevron before the AGM in June. This is what keeping the stock alive. On another note this stock has around 6,000 shareholders only.

I bought stocks into all the energy stocks KK, Total, KPLC and Kengen and mumias and the returns are good.
winston
#10 Posted : Thursday, May 13, 2010 8:24:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Lead times are very tight in the oil supply chain (KPC-NBI-DEPOT-STATION)and any hitch, system or otherwise, immediately reflects in 'dry' stations (as there is little slack).

incidentally there was talk of Ex-caltex staff not moving over to Total after the acquisition. Some of them didn't think much about total's operational system as compared to chevron's.
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