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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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A view from Moody's. "This report, the first of a two-part series, is based on a presentation that was made to investors in various European cities throughout April 2010 and will assess the risk of contagion to banking systems emanating from these sovereign concerns. The second part of this series – which will be published shortly – will assess the exposures and capital implications for major European banking systems to the four Southern European countries...." Read more: http://ftalphaville.ft.c...urozone-bank-contagion/
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@Guru267, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com to discuss a matter.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Could Fat Finger please stand up! "NEW YORK — In a late-day plunge eerily reminiscent of famous Wall Street stock market meltdowns in 1987 and the fall of 2008, the Dow Jones industrials nosedived almost 1,000 points Wednesday in a volatile day that began with heavy selling on Greek debt fears and was followed by a waterfall decline that was allegedly caused by erroneous trades and "unusual trading activity." In a roughly 15-minute span that began around 2:30 p.m. on Wall Street, the Dow, which was already down almost 300 points, suffered the bulk of its biggest-ever intraday dive, falling as much as 998.50 points, or 9.2%, to 9869.62. The violent drop was followed by a rebound nearly as steep, with the Dow finishing down 347.80 points, or 3.2%, to 10,502.32...." Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/...-07-dowcrash07_CV_N.htm
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the world markets have gone into free fall with the dow jones falling 347 points or 3.2% with the low for the day being 900 points or 8.8% this being caused by a hedge fund liquidation... The panic being caused by a possible contagion from greece, possible bank default and the imminent downgrade of portugal that threatens a massive liquidity crisis. the NIKKEI in japan has fallen this morning almost 4% with the japanese government pumping $20billion to prevent a further fall and panic... this rapid fall in markets and the Euro is set to cause panic among retail investors and fund managers worldwide the only way one would convince me that the NSE will be spared is the use of the decoupling theory where Kenya can still post growth amid a European decline and it remaind to be seen how this is possible... Kenya's top earners include horticulture, tourism, agricultural exports, diaspora remittances and all these are directly linked with Europe so my advice is to sell out all companies linked to Europe for example KQ and the agricultural stocks because demand from Europe is going to fall drastically with all the austerity measures that have been passed in greece and soon throughout Europe... WE ARE ABOUT TO START CALLING CASH "KING" IF EUROPE DOES NOT SORT OUT ITS MESS VERY SOON.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The little big secret is that the debt market dictates interest rates, not central banks. Despite popular belief, central banks follow the market. The European Central Bank's indication that it will maintain its interest rate at 1% was fell on deaf ears yesterday. Traders were focused on their terminals as contagion spreads to other Club Med nations whose interest rates on sovereign debt are spiking. "LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The premium investors demand to hold 10-year euro zone peripheral government bonds instead of German benchmarks rose on Wednesday while the two-year Schatz yield hit a record low as fears of contagion from the Greek crisis spread. The selloff in peripheral sovereign debt drove Bund futures to their highest level since March 2009...." Read more: http://www.reuters.com/a...e/idUSLDE6440PE20100505
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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@kk. The little big secret seems difficult to swallow, perhaps needs further explanation. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@Scubidu. You will recall in days past when markets were calm like Zanzibar's coastline, market participants would wait with bated breath for the Fed and ECB interest rate announcements. This would be the base with which the markets would set their interest rates (credit card, mortgage, lending, savings etc) The truth of the matter is that the bond markets set interest rates. The central banks follow the market but make it seem as though they are setting rates. Despite the best intentions of the ECB, interest rates are being determined by the bond markets based on probability of default. The unchanged 1% rate announcement was akin to the weather forecast; a novelty. A likely scenario is for the ECB to follow Europe's interest rate march upwards.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781
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Mambo bad in the international markets.Is this a double dip recession? The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@ Sheep. Those nations that are rammed by the Debt Crisis will face recessions or depressions. It seems that the Club Med countries are in the path of the storm. Therefore, the inviting conclusion is that in the medium term, southern Europe will face the aforementioned conditions. The Euro will crack under the pressure. No mechanism has been established to allow individual countries to devalue their currencies or adjust interest rates. That was the model in the U.S. pre-1933 where 12 regional banks as part of the Federal Reserve system were allowed to adjust interest rates; attracting and repelling capital where necessary. Britain and the U.S. are also under threat. Let us hope that our politicians are taking notes in the years leading up to the common East African common currency and monetary union. Pay keen attention to gold. It is playing its historical role as a personal reserve currency and a hedge against destabilisation of the nation state. Gold in Euro terms is at all time high of €949.04 whilst British Pound gold is at £818.58. If you are interested in investing in gold, please inbox me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Banks and governments in these five shaky economies owe each other many billions of euros — converted here to dollars — and have even larger debts to Britain, France and Germany : http://tinyurl.com/2w4p737
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Breaking Interview: On a day when the DOW closed down 430 points after falling 1,000 points and gold closed up $33 to roughly $1,210, Jim Sinclair was kind enough to spend some time making sense out of what is happening in the gold and equity markets for King World News listeners: http://www.kingworldnews...0/5/6_Jim_Sinclair.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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The EU has erected a levee to halt the crashing waves of a brewing debt storm. Since all member of the EU will contribute to this fund, markets are keen to know the share that already indebted Spain, Portugal and Italy will fork out. " May 10 (Bloomberg) -- European policy makers unveiled an unprecedented loan package worth almost $1 trillion and a program of bond purchases as they spearheaded a global drive to stop a sovereign-debt crisis that threatened to shatter confidence in the euro. Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, the 16 euro nations agreed to offer financial assistance worth as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) to countries under attack from speculators. The European Central Bank will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt...." Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com...=aeHrwqUq9G9A&pos=1
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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I am yet to hear calls for regulation of the construction industry by the government due to "greedy" contractors hiking prices. If we are to regulate oil marketers, we might as well include all industries that source raw materials from overseas. "The cost of construction materials is set to increase beginning this morning as manufacturers raise their prices in tandem with the rising cost of production. Makers of cement, corrugated iron sheets and steel products attributed the upward adjustment of prices to the recent surge in the cost of commodities with the ongoing global economic recovery. A steep rise in the cost of building material could give impetus to the price bubble in the real estate market pushing homeownership beyond the reach of a large segment of Kenya’s middle class...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily...2/-/5fqaf6/-/index.html
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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Daily Wealth article. The gist of the article was something I've been telling people for a long time: Gold – more so than any asset right now – has the potential to experience a mania phase... one like we saw in Internet stocks from 1997 through 2000. A mania phase is a period in an asset's lifecycle marked by leaps of 10% or 20% in a month... 100% or 300% in a year... and 500% or more over the course of several years. Get in early with a big position on a mania phase, and you'll make a fortune. Remember one Internet-mania darling, JDS Uniphase, climbed more than 30-fold in about two years... which would have turned a stake of $20,000 into $640,000. As that little-read article mentioned, an asset must have one key ingredient to enter mania phase: It must have the "new era" factor... a set of conditions folks can point to and say, "This time is different... The old, conventional methods of valuing assets are useless in this case." Read more: http://www.dailywealth.c...d-Enter-Mania-Phase-Soon“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Mzee Scubidu, There are 1001 articles to butress the fact that gold price will soon be under 800 USD per ounce AND There are 1001 articles to support that gold price will be above 1000 USD per once for a while The same thing is applicable to OIL price. You cannot just lift one article and draw a conclusion. There are many other indicators, historicals and other insights which is out of the scope of this arena which I believe you do not know about. They are not mere theories. The whole world knows the two most important items with no close substitutes in the world for now is Energy (Oil and gas), commodity (Gold). Mzee KK Apologies to intrude to your domain without permission ? Best Regards The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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Mzee Young. I don't believe we've met, but dude, i just lifted the text of the article, thot it wud be an interesting read (eye-catching). There's not an original thot in that post. KK knows more about this than I do. I was just lounging in the lounge. Take it easy bro... ...but b4 i go, i'd be interested to read those articles that say that Gold will be at 800 USD per tonne. So far ive bin listening to gold advocates. Would appreciate a link or something, later. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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@ Young and Loungers. This is our space in the pixelsphere to: bang heads, bag trends and bank cheques
Feel free to post your queries, insights, compliments and suggestions. Iron sharpens iron.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Mzee karanja kinuthia Your points have been noted. Please check your inbox for ???? Awaiting your reply (email only) Best Regards The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Collateral damage from the Debt Crisis. A close on the Euro below the 1.25 level to the U.S. Dollar opens the door to 1.23 which was the 2008 low. If the Euro closes below 1.23 on a monthly basis, the next level is 1.20. "Kenya’s horticulture sector faces fresh threats to its business as the euro—its main trading currency— drops to levels last seen 23 months ago against the Kenya shilling on concerns over the fiscal health of the euro zone. Commercial banks on Tuesday quoted the local currency at below the psychological Sh100 mark against the euro, down from an average of Sh108 in the six months to December—a signal that flower exporters are taking a cut of between five shillings and eight shillings on their earnings compared to last year. The euro was trading at Sh98.60 against the Kenya shilling having last traded at this level on June 19, 2008...." Read more: http://www.businessdaily.../-/gtacmcz/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Raise your ploughs, to the commodity bull market! The Debt Crisis in Europe has shattered confidence in bond markets. Look to commodities and common stocks to benefit from investment inflows seeking safety. "Many firms in Boston’s financial district invest in things you can’t touch: currency futures, index options, credit derivatives and so on. But on the 17th floor of a high-rise office tower here, more than a 1,000 miles from the nation’s Midwestern farm-belt, buttoned-down strategists at Hancock Agricultural Investment Group are wagering serious money, if not quite betting the farm, on corn, soybeans and other crops. No, it’s not commodity trading. Hancock, a unit of Manulife Financial , has so far ploughed more than $1 billion into actual farmland, mostly in the United States..." Read more: http://www.businessdaily.../-/g8ocrmz/-/index.html
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