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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists 
TA fans please continue to soldier on  Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists
TA fans please continue to soldier on Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. We all know what TA means, but I am pointing out that it is far from foolproof.. So you mean TA would have alerted JBB to hold off investment in Uchumi??
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists
TA fans please continue to soldier on Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. We all know what TA means, but I am pointing out that it is far from foolproof.. So you mean TA would have alerted JBB to hold off investment in Uchumi?? TA is for traders who happen to portray hawkish character. ..Since JBB is an investor does not qualify for TA....Investors rely on fundamentals to make decisions but end up being shafted by the ill-minded big boys. Traders are in for short term and quick money... John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists
TA fans please continue to soldier on Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. We all know what TA means, but I am pointing out that it is far from foolproof.. So you mean TA would have alerted JBB to hold off investment in Uchumi?? Technical and Fundamental analysis are both important for stock picking. FA tells you which stocks to buy and TA when to buy. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists
TA fans please continue to soldier on Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. We all know what TA means, but I am pointing out that it is far from foolproof.. So you mean TA would have alerted JBB to hold off investment in Uchumi?? Technical and Fundamental analysis are both important for stock picking. FA tells you which stocks to buy and TA when to buy. When to buy or sell. Fixed it $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/17/2013 Posts: 118
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@Mnandii, what does Elliot wave say on Safaricom? Which wave are we? KCB,NMG,PAFR
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:18.20 was proved a resistance for Safaricom..
Bullish candlestick today for the bell weather.Waiting for tomorrow's opening,closing and days high to confirm trend..
Otherwise seems we floored for this cycle The bellweather exchanges 24M shares to break above 18.50 Supply taken and seems dried upto 19 EABL rebouncing Equity and KCB seems floored at 23
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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60M SAFCOM SHARES TRADED
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:Spikes wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Good analysis. I expect a move lower but not to the lows of 2576. And (almost) 3 years later... here we are! Respect to @mmnadii Who would have guessed? Respect to the oracle. Even after showing guys several times the power of TA, in wazua-land TA fans and their graphs are called cartoonists
TA fans please continue to soldier on Bolingo boys band.. The imperfect NSE market where auditors hide negative financial data and board decisions are leaked to the media before decisions are ratified makes it impossible to trade on TA alone in Kenya. Otherwise your TA analysed stock may just be suspended as soon as you buy some stock with life savings TA is after an event has occurred successfully which implies rogue audit work is factored and captured in the cartoon....Hats off once again for TA proponents. We all know what TA means, but I am pointing out that it is far from foolproof.. So you mean TA would have alerted JBB to hold off investment in Uchumi?? Technical and Fundamental analysis are both important for stock picking. FA tells you which stocks to buy and TA when to buy. When to buy or sell. Fixed it Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Interesting. So what will cause the social mood to change from negative to positive? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Sociologist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Interesting. So what will cause the social mood to change from negative to positive? I don't buy the social mood theory. Cause and effect is like chicken and egg. For instance people get stressed when they lack money. They don't get stressed then lose money. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,596
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VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Interesting. So what will cause the social mood to change from negative to positive? The cause is usually not important rather catching the waves of social mood is what matters. The social mood moves in a defined pattern so look for the point of maximum despondency and profit from the return of euphoria. The change to a positive sentiment will come once the social mood waves are done.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Waiting for the rebound test at the 3000 handle which was a strong support level now turned resistance. The market has rebounded 119 points since it printed 2789. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Interesting. So what will cause the social mood to change from negative to positive? The cause is usually not important rather catching the waves of social mood is what matters. The social mood moves in a defined pattern so look for the point of maximum despondency and profit from the return of euphoria. The change to a positive sentiment will come once the social mood waves are done. So when does that happen? There's no point in telling me, in June 2018, that the "change" happened in Dec 2017. When do you see the point of maximum despondency? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Waiting for the rebound test at the 3000 handle which was a strong support level now turned resistance.
The market has rebounded 119 points since it printed 2789. Agreed. The relief rally continues to just below the 3000 level then the downleg resumes just as bank FY results check in. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. I think this bear will have the largest number of casualties and deliver the most devastating losses. The premise here is simple; this has been a slow grinder of a bear, it doesn't afford investors that moment to absolutely capitulate/freak out and thereby cut one's losses and run for hills. It has given investors hope all along. Moreover, the average investor is yet to figure out why we are in a bear in the first place.Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? This is what the mainstream media/establishment has been trying so hard to obscure from public glare. After numerous incumbents/out and out favorites have lost their shirts in elections, they are still clinging onto some fanciful notion that this particular tide can be wished away. I wonder what the excuse will be when the EU breaks down and WWIII is a distinct probability. An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,596
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VituVingiSana wrote:wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mnandii wrote:Beware of dead cat bounce in NSE riseQuote:January has been the worst month for investors since 2009, with the market dropping 370 points. To make it even weirder, all this happened despite the absence of any notable catastrophe in the economy or major change in the same. BD linkWe have always argued in these pages that movements in the stock market (and all financial markets) are not influenced by outside causes. The guy is wondering why the market has moved south without any cause. Movements in the financial markets are endogenous i.e they arise out of social mood which is part and parcel of human nature. The waves of social mood are patterned according to The Wave Principle. That is why they have predictive value. Those waiting on Safaricom fundamentals to predict where the share might go will be disappointed. Social mood affects everything that you do. A simple question can be asked. Does war make people angry ? The assumption here is that war caused people to be angry, but, wait, what caused the war in the first place? An Elliottician (Socionomist) would reverse the statement to imply that angry people make war. In this case the proper cause (anger, mood) results in war (effect). Interesting. So what will cause the social mood to change from negative to positive? The cause is usually not important rather catching the waves of social mood is what matters. The social mood moves in a defined pattern so look for the point of maximum despondency and profit from the return of euphoria. The change to a positive sentiment will come once the social mood waves are done. So when does that happen? There's no point in telling me, in June 2018, that the "change" happened in Dec 2017. When do you see the point of maximum despondency? I can't tell you 'when' because as Isaac Newton said it's easier to calculate the movement of stars than the madness of men. I had hinted earlier in another thread that around 2676 you will see maximum despondency. You will notice at around 2789 the sellers gave up giving us the current relief rally. I would expect the market will re-test those bottom levels soon. The market calculates the madness of men, your work as the investor is to observe and take advantage of it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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The market is active, big volumes are trading meaning People are taking positions,theories are not law. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,596
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mlennyma wrote:The market is active, big volumes are trading meaning People are taking positions,theories are not law. I know you are expecting a 'V' shaped recovery like in 2009 and 2011. That era ended with Kibaki-the Keynesian economist.
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