Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
What has been ailing the market from early 2015 till end of 2016 where it has shed about 2500 points or approximately 45% from a peak @5500 level? Do you still aver that politics has been the underlying issue all along...three years on the trot?
The 911 moment for Kenya happened on 21 September 2013, the terror attack at Westgate mall in the heart of the capital city. I doubt the consequences of that event to the economy have been fully documented....but the fear and uncertainty it brought to this country and particularly to investors and owners of capital resulted in a big dent to the economy and expected growth. Tourism went to down to zero, UN and many embassies cut their staff residing in Nairobi, some economically influential Kenyan families relocated to Canada and UK and the effect of all these were clear one year later towards end of 2014 with profit warnings and lower returns expectation at NSE. After west gate we had a few other attacks in kenya and a big one on 2nd April 2015 at Garissa university college. Just like 911 affected the USA contributing to 2008 financial meltdown among other factors, the effect of terror on the Kenyan economy has been very significant and in my opinion has contributed greatly to the bear since early 2015.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
|
@mnandii - Just the index or specific shares is expected to fall with wave 5? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,211 Location: nairobi
|
Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
What has been ailing the market from early 2015 till end of 2016 where it has shed about 2500 points or approximately 45% from a peak @5500 level? Do you still aver that politics has been the underlying issue all along...three years on the trot?
The 911 moment for Kenya happened on 21 September 2013, the terror attack at Westgate mall in the heart of the capital city. I doubt the consequences of that event to the economy have been fully documented....but the fear and uncertainty it brought to this country and particularly to investors and owners of capital resulted in a big dent to the economy and expected growth. Tourism went to down to zero, UN and many embassies cut their staff residing in Nairobi, some economically influential Kenyan families relocated to Canada and UK and the effect of all these were clear one year later towards end of 2014 with profit warnings and lower returns expectation at NSE. After west gate we had a few other attacks in kenya and a big one on 2nd April 2015 at Garissa university college. Just like 911 affected the USA contributing to 2008 financial meltdown among other factors, the effect of terror on the Kenyan economy has been very significant and in my opinion has contributed greatly to the bear since early 2015. Never looked at it that way.. Interesting view on matters
KQ ABP 4.26
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
|
mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below.  Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
|
mkate_nusu wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below. Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700  possunt quia posse videntur
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
maka wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below. Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700 By the time the index breaks below 2300 expect a lot of civil unrest which can easily propel the index below 2000!
I wonder where @mukiri went. I hope he is fine. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
obiero wrote:@mnadii I believe in your cartoonery Brother @obiero welcome to world of cartoon wizardry  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
|
hisah wrote:maka wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Taking cue from our original post no. 1 here we now have an updated NSE 20 Share Index Chart below. Note that these are Weekly data points. Our wave B completed and now the market is falling in wave C as per our original forecast three years ago. If wave C completes at a point where it is the same length as wave A (Wave A = 6026 - 2576 ), then we should expect the current bear market to bottom at about 1700 level (the blue dashed line). I'll post a daily chart to zoom in on the falling impulse wave which is in blue wave [iii]. Closer look shortly. @prophet mnandii I finally accepted the vision forecast in october last year and sold off large portions which has saved me quite a lot. Let us know when you see the new wave upwards is going to begin after we bottom out Wololo 1700 By the time the index breaks below 2300 expect a lot of civil unrest which can easily propel the index below 2000!
I wonder where @mukiri went. I hope he is fine. Wouldn't this be a case of the tail wagging the dog? A drop in the index due to "riots" [think PEV 2008 and the subsequent severe bear in 2009] due to a toxic business environment that affects sales/profits of listed firms. Why would there be unrest in Kenya on account of the index dropping when: - Less than 20% of the "investing" population have shares - Even fewer have a significant part of their portfolio in shares (most Kenyans have "land" not shares as their primary investment.) - Over 50% of all CDSC accounts are inactive. - Those who are active (or have significant shares) are unlikely to riot or cause unrest. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
What has been ailing the market from early 2015 till end of 2016 where it has shed about 2500 points or approximately 45% from a peak @5500 level? Do you still aver that politics has been the underlying issue all along...three years on the trot?
The 911 moment for Kenya happened on 21 September 2013, the terror attack at Westgate mall in the heart of the capital city. I doubt the consequences of that event to the economy have been fully documented....but the fear and uncertainty it brought to this country and particularly to investors and owners of capital resulted in a big dent to the economy and expected growth. Tourism went to down to zero, UN and many embassies cut their staff residing in Nairobi, some economically influential Kenyan families relocated to Canada and UK and the effect of all these were clear one year later towards end of 2014 with profit warnings and lower returns expectation at NSE. After west gate we had a few other attacks in kenya and a big one on 2nd April 2015 at Garissa university college. Just like 911 affected the USA contributing to 2008 financial meltdown among other factors, the effect of terror on the Kenyan economy has been very significant and in my opinion has contributed greatly to the bear since early 2015.
The Economy was on recovery in 2016 ..... There was increased confidence in the country and tourism had started taking off again after major conferences were held in kenya ....by sept 2016 the blogs here were about double bottom for NSE index (after it rose from 2011 level) and the Bulls were confident again.. Then the surprise signing of the interest capping law happened.....and that took the index towards lower 30000s.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
|
Liv wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
What has been ailing the market from early 2015 till end of 2016 where it has shed about 2500 points or approximately 45% from a peak @5500 level? Do you still aver that politics has been the underlying issue all along...three years on the trot?
The 911 moment for Kenya happened on 21 September 2013, the terror attack at Westgate mall in the heart of the capital city. I doubt the consequences of that event to the economy have been fully documented....but the fear and uncertainty it brought to this country and particularly to investors and owners of capital resulted in a big dent to the economy and expected growth. Tourism went to down to zero, UN and many embassies cut their staff residing in Nairobi, some economically influential Kenyan families relocated to Canada and UK and the effect of all these were clear one year later towards end of 2014 with profit warnings and lower returns expectation at NSE. After west gate we had a few other attacks in kenya and a big one on 2nd April 2015 at Garissa university college. Just like 911 affected the USA contributing to 2008 financial meltdown among other factors, the effect of terror on the Kenyan economy has been very significant and in my opinion has contributed greatly to the bear since early 2015.
The Economy was on recovery in 2016 ..... There was increased confidence in the country and tourism had started taking off again after major conferences were held in kenya ....by sept 2016 the blogs here were about double bottom for NSE index (after it rose from 2011 level) and the Bulls were confident again.. Then the surprise signing of the interest capping law happened.....and that took the index towards lower 30000s. I wish!  ... I think the cost of the SGR started sinking in in 2016. $4bn from the Chinese. Another $2bn in land compensation. GoK started borrowing like a drunken sailor. Then there was NYS that exposed the corruption that we were told was under control. All these "costs" will make life harder for listed firms. At the Unga AGM, the CEO said they haven't seen the 6% GDP growth in their business. Whereas, I expect Unga to do better in 2017 vs 2016, I think that's more to do with the reforms/restructuring, new products and investments starting to pay off rather than a tailwind from the 6% GDP growth that's being touted. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|