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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes
Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you can take to the world bank.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Liv wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes
Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you can take to the world bank. Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Truly i say hii NSE cinema won't dissapoint its enthusiasts. All zeros are painted green and all dashes too. Somebody would easily pass it as very rosey performance by every trick on the book. Ukiona ppt washa inua kimono, now other more qeer and savagely methods haven't failed. Time to befearful%greedy. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/25/2011 Posts: 67
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Angelica _ann wrote:Liv wrote:obiero wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes
Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you
can take to the world bank. Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two Kibaki is the one who came up with the phrase 'Dynamic duo' during the Hand over ceremony at Kasarani
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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Meanwhile, Nairobi Securities Exchange awarded worst performing market for 2017 thus far by Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.co...y-fall-further-ceo-says
Clearly, we have gladly handed our market to foreigners who remain bewildered with our fascination with politics.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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Angelica _ann wrote:Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two. I beg to differ. It is an abuse of the word.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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mlennyma wrote:The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more Those that heeded to mnandii's calling that cash is king and the index had to fall to 2000 points are safe KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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SCBK!!! Looking like NBK when it was clutching at straws trying to float above the 15 handle. When that support caved in the fall was breathless! Nasty nosedive ahead as per the monthly cartoon   $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/18/2008 Posts: 3,434 Location: Kerugoya
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I know I am good in English, but I need a translation for what Mr. Bodo is talking about in his article: Link: Bottom of page one. Quote:I (George Bodo) have been constructing some paraphernalia — but within the technical analysis realm.
One of them which I’ve been trying to dry run is the advance-decline line.
It’s a simple tool for measuring market breadth and internal strength.
You always want to know whether a stock market rally is strong or just a short-lived passing cloud and vice versa.
Link: Page TwoQuote:It can be defined as the cumulative sum of:
advancers (stocks closing a trading day on a positive note)
minus
decliners. (stocks closing the trading day on negative note).
On days when the number of advancers exceeds the number of decliners, the advance-decline line will rise.
And on days when decliners exceed advancers, the line will fall.
However, the importance of this indicator lies in spotting a divergence.
Ordinarily, the breadth line should replicate a stock market index to the extent that when an index is rising, the line also rises — and vice versa.
However, in a case where an index is rising while the line is falling, that’s called a negative divergence; and the rally is probably being fuelled by just a few big stocks.
When a stock index is touching new highs while the AD line is falling, that signals weak market internals and the rally is nearing an end.
I recently constructed an AD line for the NSE and put this hypothesis to test, with an interesting result.
Based on my readings, the market topped in February 2015.
But before that, it was preceded by two negative divergences, albeit minor. Since then, the market has been on a downdraft with both the NSE 20-share and All-Share indices losing 45 per cent and 30 per cent respectively, peak-to-trough.
Effectively, it means that if you had spotted those two negative divergences, you needed to have exited or at least reduced your exposures.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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mkate_nusu wrote:mlennyma wrote:The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more Those that heeded to mnandii's calling that cash is king and the index had to fall to 2000 points are safe They are liquid now and need to know when to return.. The upswing is nigh
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell KCB trading at KES 25 is a travesty.. Check the volume action on financials. Not everyone is selling.. Even BBK this week traded over 5million shares
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:mlennyma wrote:Liv wrote:Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?
My view; it can be challenged
All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.
If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.
All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.
During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell KCB trading at KES 25 is a travesty.. Check the volume action on financials. Not everyone is selling.. Even BBK this week traded over 5million shares We are in aMajor bear market which my analysis using the Elliott Wave model predicted. Check post no. 1. The bear still has a long way down to go. If you didn't sell back then prepare to cry in the toilet! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the MoodQuote:We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.
A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming... linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the MoodQuote:We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.
A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming... link If Dow scales above 22000 by March the top will likely set in...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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