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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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Mkondoa Macho wrote:If I am riding this bus with Obiero, I think it is the high time I bailed out. Selling mine at 14 tomorrow. Capital preservation is key. It's time to buy!!
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,707 Location: NAIROBI
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Biggest loser amongst the banks today Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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obiero wrote:Mkondoa Macho wrote:If I am riding this bus with Obiero, I think it is the high time I bailed out. Selling mine at 14 tomorrow. Capital preservation is key. It's time to buy!! The 'Alleged' hidden NPL of KES4b is the equivalent of 3 years worth of profits ...... !! Ponder on that for a second. And even if it was true, of course you don't expect the company to release a statement before real pressure from the regulator accepting that it had hidden NPLs. There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold! If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)!  By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too. Will HF trigger the peak in real estate? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Mkondoa Macho wrote:If I am riding this bus with Obiero, I think it is the high time I bailed out. Selling mine at 14 tomorrow. Capital preservation is key. It's time to buy!! Which means it is time to sell coz @Obiero needs someone to buy his shares!  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Mkondoa Macho wrote:If I am riding this bus with Obiero, I think it is the high time I bailed out. Selling mine at 14 tomorrow. Capital preservation is key. It's time to buy!! Which means it is time to sell coz @Obiero needs someone to buy his shares! Obiero has the opposite of a Midas touch...whatever he touches, turns into ash. 
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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Mkondoa Macho wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Mkondoa Macho wrote:If I am riding this bus with Obiero, I think it is the high time I bailed out. Selling mine at 14 tomorrow. Capital preservation is key. It's time to buy!! Which means it is time to sell coz @Obiero needs someone to buy his shares! Obiero has the opposite of a Midas touch...whatever he touches, turns into ash. Please leave Ngunze alone!  There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold! If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 level. Will Britam have to Mark-to-Market? With the "loss" on HFCK, one wonders what the effect will be on Britam. Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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7% up today... I told you I know Kevin personally. Nothing true in his allegations
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold! If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)! By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too. Will HF trigger the peak in real estate? HF price broke below the GFC price trough. In my interpretation of price movement that is a very bad sign coz in essence it is saying that current market conditions are worse than back then (allowing for irrationality of course). And that's quite a statement. Credit growth has also shrunk to GFC levels...excellent correlation. All in all, HF is a highly cyclical stock - rallies hard during a bull and crashes badly in a bear with zero exceptions - it perfectly dovetails the market trend with minimal divergences here and there. Strong bear results in ridiculous HF pricing. I think HF is foreshadowing the overall market trend at this point in time. Peak real estate + peak bonds = jaw dropping stuff. Real estate in KE is more or less in the plateau stage before a correction/bear begins. Ditto for bonds. If both happen at roughly the same time frame HF @2.5-3.00 will print. We will need a new word for discounts. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,707 Location: NAIROBI
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@VVS You are right. Obiero hates facts. Closing price is down today and someone says 7% up. That 13.60 is just someone who tried to dump at that price and there were no bidders Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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obiero wrote:7% up today... I told you I know Kevin personally. Nothing true in his allegations VWAP closed @12.40 down 15cts from previous close.
@obiero, I hope you are speculating here. The long term cartoon is not forecasting a pretty picture.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:obiero wrote:7% up today... I told you I know Kevin personally. Nothing true in his allegations VWAP closed @12.40 down 15cts from previous close.
@obiero, I hope you are speculating here. The long term cartoon is not forecasting a pretty picture. @Ericsson @Hisah at some point within the day, my statement was true.. I am purely speculating here, but with sufficient confidence
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold! If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)! By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too. Will HF trigger the peak in real estate? HF price broke below the GFC price trough. In my interpretation of price movement that is a very bad sign coz in essence it is saying that current market conditions are worse than back then (allowing for irrationality of course). And that's quite a statement. Credit growth has also shrunk to GFC levels...excellent correlation. All in all, HF is a highly cyclical stock - rallies hard during a bull and crashes badly in a bear with zero exceptions - it perfectly dovetails the market trend with minimal divergences here and there. Strong bear results in ridiculous HF pricing. I think HF is foreshadowing the overall market trend at this point in time. Peak real estate + peak bonds = jaw dropping stuff. Real estate in KE is more or less in the plateau stage before a correction/bear begins. Ditto for bonds. If both happen at roughly the same time frame HF @2.5-3.00 will print. We will need a new word for discounts. HFC to substantially default on the bond. Bookmark this post. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:What does the cartoon say? From the monthly chart (long term) HFCK still has a long way down to go! All time vol spike appeared in Dec 2015 between the 21 - 24 price level. Since then the price has nosedived! That's a nasty signal with all that heavy volume in action. Caution. 10.00 handle had better hold! If it breaks that psychological multiyear support level the next level is 7.50 - 8.50 which if it fails to hold we have a sizable air pocket down to the next level at 2.50 - 3.00 (2001 all time low)! By the time HF craters towards 3.00 the KE real estate will be in the junk yard with housing prices bleeding badly! That will be trigger a credit systemic event since the banks hold real estate in their books too. Will HF trigger the peak in real estate? HF price broke below the GFC price trough. In my interpretation of price movement that is a very bad sign coz in essence it is saying that current market conditions are worse than back then (allowing for irrationality of course). And that's quite a statement. Credit growth has also shrunk to GFC levels...excellent correlation. All in all, HF is a highly cyclical stock - rallies hard during a bull and crashes badly in a bear with zero exceptions - it perfectly dovetails the market trend with minimal divergences here and there. Strong bear results in ridiculous HF pricing. I think HF is foreshadowing the overall market trend at this point in time. Peak real estate + peak bonds = jaw dropping stuff. Real estate in KE is more or less in the plateau stage before a correction/bear begins. Ditto for bonds. If both happen at roughly the same time frame HF @2.5-3.00 will print. We will need a new word for discounts. One that day I shall surely cry. Real cry with real tears!! Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,600
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Deflation of real estate assets is one huge risk that will hit almost all banks. Find out from auctioneers if banks are able to force-sell securities in this environment. HF is taking the biggest hit right now because it is too exposed to real estate. Underwater mortgages will be here soon.
I still intend to scoop HF at low prices considering what CBK is doing with M1 money supply.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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wukan wrote:Deflation of real estate assets is one huge risk that will hit almost all banks. Find out from auctioneers if banks are able to force-sell securities in this environment. HF is taking the biggest hit right now because it is too exposed to real estate. Underwater mortgages will be here soon.
I still intend to scoop HF at low prices considering what CBK is doing with M1 money supply. Kuna comments funny sana hapa leo
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,468
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Flo-ology wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:@Obiero
I see closing price of 12.55 gain of 4.58% and volume traded of 1,300.
The lack of support on volume since the slide began is telling.. We shall cross 14.5 before new years @Obiero if I were you I would sell it after today's gain. This stock is not healthy. I won't give my reasons why I think it is un healthy. Are we still in Wazua??? Let me confirm the url. Oh, the fellow who posted this is barely a week old in Wazua. Let me assume he/she is ACTUALLY new!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,468
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Can we have a proper analysis of this stock by a fundie. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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MaichBlack wrote:Can we have a proper analysis of this stock by a fundie. agreed. there is too much noise...
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