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directional forecast
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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muandiwambeu wrote:karasinga wrote:Ebenyo wrote:karasinga wrote:snipermnoma wrote:Thanks for the updates @karasinga You are most welcomed snipermnoma. Your requests have put me in a situation I have not been before. If I didn't meet your expectations just remember there is always a first time in something. I am aware DTB analysis is yet to come. will post when I find time. Let us keep those requests coming. I believe these analysis will make us face market more objectively than before. Not looking for perfection but growth. cheers mate. @karasinga,your analysis are credible.I have proved you right in safaricom and kengen.keep up the good work! welcome Ebenyo. It is nice seeing you around. I am still a humble student. The learning curve never ends. feel free to join us in this probability game. Here we do not expect to management. Will be waiting for your posts. Well done so far @karas. Mind a review ofwhat is eabl, britam and SAfcom doing of late? welcome muandiwambeu. I don't mind. Will post the reviews. In my humble opinion, do not engage SCOM unless price is between 17.5 and 18. More details to follow. In the meantime check page 17 post 322. feel free to post. cheers mate. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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on my watch list. not in any order 1. keno 2. cable 3. nic 4. nmg 5. sg 6. kegn 7. cic 8. eabl 9. uchm 10. msc 11. hfck 12. scom. 13. arm note: all banks are bound to make another leg down(hopefully the last leg). It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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karasinga wrote:on my watch list. not in any order
1. keno
2. cable
3. nic
4. nmg
5. sg
6. kegn
7. cic
8. eabl
9. uchm
10. msc
11. hfck
12. scom.
13. arm
note: all banks are bound to make another leg down(hopefully the last leg).
Interesting. Even TA analysis suggests that banks are due for another beating. Good to know. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:karasinga wrote:on my watch list. not in any order
1. keno
2. cable
3. nic
4. nmg
5. sg
6. kegn
7. cic
8. eabl
9. uchm
10. msc
11. hfck
12. scom.
13. arm
note: all banks are bound to make another leg down(hopefully the last leg).
Interesting. Even TA analysis suggests that banks are due for another beating. Good to know. . That looming down leg in the banking sector is what will make NSE20 break below 3000, which will make me relook the bottom expectation. I wonder how many will be able to handle that downside carnage with a straight face as capitulation kicks in. The best scenario in the next downleg for the banks is a prolonged bidless period to flash out everything before a solid base forms!
@kasaringa, it seems NMG wants to test the GFC lows before it reacts. The metrics are so oversold which means a sharp bounce is highly likely in order to reset the metrics.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:karasinga wrote:on my watch list. not in any order
1. keno
2. cable
3. nic
4. nmg
5. sg
6. kegn
7. cic
8. eabl
9. uchm
10. msc
11. hfck
12. scom.
13. arm
note: all banks are bound to make another leg down(hopefully the last leg).
Interesting. Even TA analysis suggests that banks are due for another beating. Good to know. . That looming down leg in the banking sector is what will make NSE20 break below 3000, which will make me relook the bottom expectation. I wonder how many will be able to handle that downside carnage with a straight face as as capitulation kicks in. The best scenario in the next downleg for the banks is a prolonged bidless period to flash out everything before a solid base forms!
@kasaringa, it seems NMG wants to test the GFC lows before it reacts. The metrics are so oversold which means a sharp bounce is highly likely in order to reset the metrics. If there isn't any rebound before march next year, then this thing gone stink to the high. Many banks are doing their fy end repos by then before flood gates are set open. The after shock shall knock senses of the entire NSE as discounts turns premium again. Real golden handcuffs this maybe. On the contrary a mini bull rally may resurface before a final leg of atrocities begins. Keenly watching ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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EABL East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 broke below the downside support level of 263.50, 8 day ago. This is a bearish sign. This previous support level of 263.50 may now provide upside resistance. Volume on the day of the breakout was neither extremely heavy nor extremely light--providing no convincing evidence either way as to the validity of the breakout.  in terms of structural analysis, EABL achieved a HL @ C and so the overall expectation is a NSL. baby steps.. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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DTB Working with the limited data I have, this is the best analysis we can get. any one with an opinion/critics/comments(on how I can better this) is welcomed  baby steps... It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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hisah wrote:
That looming down leg in the banking sector is what will make NSE20 break below 3000, which will make me relook the bottom expectation. I wonder how many will be able to handle that downside carnage with a straight face as capitulation kicks in. The best scenario in the next downleg for the banks is a prolonged bidless period to flash out everything before a solid base forms!
@kasaringa, it seems NMG wants to test the GFC lows before it reacts. The metrics are so oversold which means a sharp bounce is highly likely in order to reset the metrics.
the reason NMG is on my watch list. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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lochaz-index wrote:karasinga wrote:on my watch list. not in any order
1. keno
2. cable
3. nic
4. nmg
5. sg
6. kegn
7. cic
8. eabl
9. uchm
10. msc
11. hfck
12. scom.
13. arm
note: all banks are bound to make another leg down(hopefully the last leg).
Interesting. Even TA analysis suggests that banks are due for another beating. Good to know. fundamental gurus should tell us their side. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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muandiwambeu wrote:
If there isn't any rebound before march next year, then this thing gone stink to the high. Many banks are doing their fy end repos by then before flood gates are set open. The after shock shall knock senses of the entire NSE as discounts turns premium again. Real golden handcuffs this maybe.
On the contrary a mini bull rally may resurface before a final leg of atrocities begins. Keenly watching
Your are right. A new year/ easter discount might be on our way. Timing (to buy value) will be critical . God willing, I will keep updating us. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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@ muandiwambeu. This analysis(on page 20 post 394) is still sound. let us see what market has in store for us. karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts  baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. Update:  DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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karasinga wrote:@ muandiwambeu. This analysis(on page 20 post 394) is still sound. let us see what market has in store for us. karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. Update: DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis Sorted out to the letter. Nursing some substance effects. I think caps disaster was a narrow shave. Hii soko inaweza peleka turban man(wakigozo) mathari mara hiyo hiyo (asap). Side effects are on the way. Living on the right side by hook and crook is my plan.   ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@karasinga, vol spike at the 3.00 handle in uchumi  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,909
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hisah wrote:@karasinga, vol spike at the 3.00 handle in uchumi Yawa direction!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 230
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How do you expect the share to behave in the coming days.The government has released the first 500mm. “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Angelica _ann wrote:hisah wrote:@karasinga, vol spike at the 3.00 handle in uchumi Yawa direction!!! Hi hisah and Angelica. Was so busy with life and never checked market yesterday. looks interesting things are starting to validate our prior analysis. Interesting because almost none of us thought government was to come in at this time but "cartoon" was speaking to us daily to expect some form of good news. What I am coming to appreciate about cartoons is that you don't need to know what will happen to make money. (quoting mark douglas)Take advantage of the demand zone and you might smile in future(just kidding). do you due diligence.cheers mate. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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uchumi wrote:How do you expect the share to behave in the coming days.The government has released the first 500mm. Hi uchumi and welcome home . UCHM(the share ) might rally(check last week's candle=doji with > 4 million shares exchanging hands) see my thoughts on the chart (weekly view). hope this helps. feel free to post baby steps... DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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muandiwambeu wrote:karasinga wrote:@ muandiwambeu. This analysis(on page 20 post 394) is still sound. let us see what market has in store for us. karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:BTAK my humble thoughts baby steps... According to the above chart it appears to me that the price will plunge to 7-5.7 bob next year Jan. i.e. if the cartoon is drawn to scale. Update: DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis Sorted out to the letter. Nursing some substance effects. I think caps disaster was a narrow shave. Hii soko inaweza peleka turban man(wakigozo) mathari mara hiyo hiyo (asap). Side effects are on the way. Living on the right side by hook and crook is my plan. @muandiwambeu, don't beat your self this is just my humble opinion. I might be wrong you know. I have ever heard of averaging down and another one never add to a lossing trade. Your choice mate stay safe. It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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karasinga wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:
Well done so far @karas. Mind a review ofwhat is eabl, britam and SAfcom doing of late?
welcome muandiwambeu. I don't mind. Will post the reviews. In my humble opinion, do not engage SCOM unless price is between 17.5 and 18. More details to follow. In the meantime check page 17 post 322. feel free to post. cheers mate. SCOM UPDATE:  Almost there...  let the market come to us It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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It's great to see @karasingha's progression as he makes these charts and adds "projections" ... Interesting stuff. I remain a "fundamentals" guy but that does not stop me appreciating what the technical side is doing. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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