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Williamson Tea FY14 Loss of Ksh 228Mn
muandiwambeu
#21 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2016 2:43:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
MadDoc
#22 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2016 3:58:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad


Shame on you What was the performance in 2016?
What's the book value per share?
What's the current EPS and PE?
Finally, is WTK trading at a discount?


VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Monday, December 05, 2016 9:20:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad

The "non-planting" of (new) tea is due to the politics [aka thuggery] behind the lease renewals. A well-managed firm.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muandiwambeu
#24 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2016 3:19:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
MadDoc wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad


Shame on you What was the performance in 2016?
What's the book value per share?
What's the current EPS and PE?
Finally, is WTK trading at a discount?



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly @MadDoc I feel you. But just because you ordered a meal late night in a hotel and you are served one full plate and a saucer full dont think you are so lucky or enjoying a discount. Worry for your stomach cause some wise waiter may be really indeed of bus ticket and you become the culprit. Lucky you.
Eti maembe/ watermelon lala ikiuzwa 90% off ni discount just because the closing performance price yesterday was ten times higher. Hiyo ni vanitySad Sad Sad .
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
MadDoc
#25 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2016 4:49:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
muandiwambeu wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad


Shame on you What was the performance in 2016?
What's the book value per share?
What's the current EPS and PE?
Finally, is WTK trading at a discount?



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly @MadDoc I feel you. But just because you ordered a meal late night in a hotel and you are served one full plate and a saucer full dont think you are so lucky or enjoying a discount. Worry for your stomach cause some wise waiter may be really indeed of bus ticket and you become the culprit. Lucky you.
Eti maembe/ watermelon lala ikiuzwa 90% off ni discount just because the closing performance price yesterday was ten times higher. Hiyo ni vanitySad Sad Sad .


I respect your opinion even though its miles away from being factual.
Arguing with you ain't worth it if you keep assuming the hard facts.
I'll keep buying WTK. In a few years, we'll see how it works out.
Speak to the hand Speak to the hand
Mkondoa Macho
#26 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2016 6:47:17 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/7/2016
Posts: 79
Location: Home
MadDoc wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The problem with our half-baked constitution is the multiple ambiguities in it. We didn't have a clear-cut date [period] for elections, no clarity as to the term of Land Leases [as it 99 years from 2010 or from the original date of the lease], etc...

So as much as the dividend is great, WTK isn't planting new tea and that hurts performance in future years if the leases are 99 years from 2010.

You see @vvs was able to pick this one out correctly. Diminishing earning and growth.d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! Sad


Shame on you What was the performance in 2016?
What's the book value per share?
What's the current EPS and PE?
Finally, is WTK trading at a discount?



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly @MadDoc I feel you. But just because you ordered a meal late night in a hotel and you are served one full plate and a saucer full dont think you are so lucky or enjoying a discount. Worry for your stomach cause some wise waiter may be really indeed of bus ticket and you become the culprit. Lucky you.
Eti maembe/ watermelon lala ikiuzwa 90% off ni discount just because the closing performance price yesterday was ten times higher. Hiyo ni vanitySad Sad Sad .


I respect your opinion even though its miles away from being factual.
Arguing with you ain't worth it if you keep assuming the hard facts.
I'll keep buying WTK. In a few years, we'll see how it works out.
Speak to the hand Speak to the hand

You still dont get the point...do you? A while back in 2011 or thereabouts, I did something similar and learned the hard way. Mumias was behaving in a similar way, the dividend yield was 10%...i.e the share was trading at around 5 bob and the dividend for the previous year was 0.5 bob. The share had never been at that 5 bob level again. Luckily, I was broke so I did not buy much, but that was the worst investment I made, because I did not look at earnings growth. Dont let the dividends of a dying company deceive you. But you dont seem to listen to advice so go ahead. If you are lucky, the company will increase its EPS. If Williamson does not improve its EPS, which is most likely because it is not planting tea anyways,dont expect any meaningful capital gain.
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Tuesday, December 06, 2016 9:58:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@MkondoaMacho - You have a good point BUT the only (significant) risk I see for WTK is land leases. In Kenya, land can be stolen away from you in a heartbeat. I am not overly bothered with tea prices which tend to cycle every 5 years. I expect the KES to depreciate vs the USD over the next 2 years seeing how much GoK is borrowing.

Unlike the smallholder, WTK can maintain its farms/plantations during the lean years. Then benefit immensely during the good years. In addition, WTK has little debt [net cash position] which benefits it during the lean years.

Finally, the management. I trust the management.

@MadDoc - His comparison with Mumias is flawed for the simple reason i.e. MANAGEMENT. Mumias' were crooks.
That said, don't discount what @MM is saying. He has a point i.e. at a certain point/price, there's a limit to what WTK can produce i.e. growth in EPS. I believe WTK [I am a shareholder] is about the dividend rather than EPS growth. It will NOT be a consistent dividend but I can live with that. If the price drops [I like low prices as a buyer] then buy more for the DIVIDEND not the EPS growth.

During the next AGM, I would encourage management to mechanize to reduce costs. 2016-17 will be tough with low tea prices.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MadDoc
#28 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2016 6:55:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
VituVingiSana wrote:
@MkondoaMacho - You have a good point BUT the only (significant) risk I see for WTK is land leases. In Kenya, land can be stolen away from you in a heartbeat. I am not overly bothered with tea prices which tend to cycle every 5 years. I expect the KES to depreciate vs the USD over the next 2 years seeing how much GoK is borrowing.

Unlike the smallholder, WTK can maintain its farms/plantations during the lean years. Then benefit immensely during the good years. In addition, WTK has little debt [net cash position] which benefits it during the lean years.

Finally, the management. I trust the management.

@MadDoc - His comparison with Mumias is flawed for the simple reason i.e. MANAGEMENT. Mumias' were crooks.
That said, don't discount what @MM is saying. He has a point i.e. at a certain point/price, there's a limit to what WTK can produce i.e. growth in EPS. I believe WTK [I am a shareholder] is about the dividend rather than EPS growth. It will NOT be a consistent dividend but I can live with that. If the price drops [I like low prices as a buyer] then buy more for the DIVIDEND not the EPS growth.

During the next AGM, I would encourage management to mechanize to reduce costs. 2016-17 will be tough with low tea prices.


I agree EPS tends to stagnate. That i believe doesn't qualify it as a 'dead' company.
You'd mentioned in a previous post that they'd started mechanizing to reduce costs. Did that stop?
With the sanctions lifted on Iran, this should be a boon for tea companies.
The land issue might be in limbo till 2018 with the looming elections.
I'm a WTK buyer as long as its below 250.

PS: 60 acres of EPK's tea plantation was burnt recently. Hope the fever don't spread. Pray
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2016 11:28:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@MadDoc - Yes, they continue mechanizing [as mentioned at the last AGM] but they should pick up the pace. There was a anti-mechanization movement by politicians a few years ago but with rising labor costs there is no choice.

WTK also installed solar panels last year and as the cost of solar panels drops I hope they continue reducing their reliance on KPLC.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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