Wazua
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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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Aguytrying wrote:Spikes wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero  last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... I have completely stopped fighting with elders. Mikono juu! I was waiting for you to say something. Truly speculation is not the best method of making profits, even though sloe and boring long-term hold is the tried and tested. We don't even know why it's rallying but we're making money. There were signs to alert speculators to jump in A year ago, twas sub 8. Now it's almost a gain of 100%. Value investing pays off.  Have a merry ride
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Soberly how long can this last and what will be the new comfort zone after the rally?the supply is strained which is good but for how long? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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@AGuy - Even KQ is +10% today on 430,000+ shares and zero supply. Not for me. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@AGuy - Even KQ is +10% today on 430,000+ shares and zero supply. Not for me. there will come a time when the bull will take on the whole market like this two "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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Supply at 15.70 starts to build up "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so. Thought you are out of cash  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so. Thought you are out of cash Yes, I would have sold my beloved KenRe... even borrowed! [25% return in 2 weeks!] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so. Something sweet is cooking, i can smell it mhhhaaahh... inhales then exhales deeply Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so. Something sweet is cooking, i can smell it mhhhaaahh... inhales then exhales deeply what's this something? let the cat out of the bag "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Supply at 15.70 starts to build up And taken out. 2.28mn traded. 1mn+ shares traded in a 5 min window. They must have been lining up the supply. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Supply at 15.70 starts to build up And taken out. 2.28mn traded. 1mn+ shares traded in a 5 min window. They must have been lining up the supply. they have hidden themselves for supply to build and strike at once,its not possible for this thing to trade this high price and high volume for nothing "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,359
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised Does someone know something we do not? [Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?] Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day? From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks... Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so.  I had told you guys, but you always say I am dreaming even while I am giving a Prophesy. Seek my earlier comments where I said it will head to 17 soon. 
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Supply at 15.70 starts to build up And taken out. 2.28mn traded. 1mn+ shares traded in a 5 min window. They must have been lining up the supply. they have hidden themselves for supply to build and strike at once,its not possible for this thing to trade this high price and high volume for nothing I cant remember the last time I smiled on watching price movement of my shares. Why couldnt today have been Tuesday  WHATS COOKING???
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:@AGuy - Even KQ is +10% today on 430,000+ shares and zero supply. Not for me. These laggards have very bad manners like the last few days in KK's rally there was always a laggard with a larger intra day gain. he he. @mlennyma. I know the friday to monday reversal, but either way doesn't matter. 70% up today  The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,192 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.
The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.
Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.
I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.
* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced 18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect are you willing to review your timelines for 18-20 price from dec.2018?it's still possible with stocks "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.
The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.
Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.
I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.
* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced 18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect are you willing to review your timelines for 18-20 price from dec.2018?it's still possible with stocks I'd rather be pleasantly surprised but even with a pullback next week the bar has been raised. Yes, it is likely to get to 18 sooner than Dec 2018. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,359
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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2011 and 2016 share price similarities. - both occurred in a bear market - Both times the company was making huge profits - both times there was 3-5 shilling discount per liter Are there other similarities, remains to be seen The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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well done The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,259 Location: Nairobi
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Everything offered at 15.70 is going, going then GONE... Mostly foreign buyers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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